15.01.2013 Views

Edited by Thorsten Beck - Vox

Edited by Thorsten Beck - Vox

Edited by Thorsten Beck - Vox

SHOW MORE
SHOW LESS

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.

The ratios are:<br />

The Future of Banking<br />

• Too rigid. As they are fixed, they need to be set tight enough to be adequate all the<br />

time. As a result they are easily characterised as very expensive, and create massive<br />

resistance.<br />

• Not countercyclical. In fact, buffers are clearly procyclical (Perotti and Suarez<br />

2010). The reason is that buffers discourage aggregate net liquidity risk only if they<br />

are costly. But in good times, the wholesale funding spread for banks is minimal<br />

(it was basically zero in 2004-07), while it jumps in a crisis. So unstable funding<br />

exposure is not discouraged, and net exposure will be the same as without buffers.<br />

Even ex post, buffers are clearly insufficient to contain systemic runs.<br />

• Very distortionary (relative to charges). They penalise the more efficient lenders,<br />

which will be rigidly constrained. This is analogous to the reason why quotas are<br />

usually less efficient than tariffs.<br />

On the positive side, quantity limits on unstable funding are a robust solution when<br />

banks are very undercapitalised. In that case, many banks are too prone to gambling to<br />

rely on charges alone. Yet in practice, when banks’ capital ratios are weak, authorities<br />

are forced to offer extensive liquidity support, and to abandon tight standards. So ratios<br />

would work because they are very constraining, but will not be used precisely because<br />

they are.<br />

It is extraordinary that contrary to a broad academic consensus, central banks’ lists of<br />

macroprudential tools do not consider alternatives to ratios, even though the approach<br />

is at serious risk of derailment.<br />

• The ratios have been successfully portrayed as very tight (as perhaps they need to<br />

be since they are set once and for all), and unaffordable in the current climate. The<br />

US regulators are currently under heavy lob<strong>by</strong>ing pressure, and given the political<br />

climate, they are unlikely to adopt very tight recommendations. Inexplicably, the<br />

European Commission has neglected any reference in its CRD4 report to the most<br />

59

Hooray! Your file is uploaded and ready to be published.

Saved successfully!

Ooh no, something went wrong!