Stave River Water Use Plan - BC Hydro

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Stave River Water Use Plan Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005 2.3.6 Data Analysis Phase 1 All data will be entered into Excel spreadsheets for analysis and presentation. Physical and chemical attribute data from the pelagic sample sites of each reservoir will be summarised using descriptive statistics and analysed for annual trends. The data will also be used to test hypotheses H01 to H07 based on published criterion and trophic level relationships. Between-site and between-reservoir comparisons will only be descriptive in nature, as there are no replicates to estimate sample variance for statistical testing. Plankton identification and enumeration data will be similarly summarised in tables for between-site and between-reservoir comparisons. Also of interest would be tests for annual trends in community structure, as well as analyses of depth distributions of key classes of phytoplankton. The data will also be used to test hypotheses H08 and H09. The 14 C estimates of pelagic primary production will be the first in a series to be collected over the next 10 years. Because only a single data set will exist, primary production will only be discussed relative to between-site and between-reservoir differences, as well as indications of an annual trend. Test of H010 will have to wait for until sufficient yearly samples are collected. The modelling exercise will utilise multiple linear regression techniques to relate various summary descriptors of reservoir hydraulics to summary statistics of nutrient concentration, chlorophyll level, and when possible primary production. Where necessary, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, independence and randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to ensure that statistical tests are being used appropriately. This test of assumptions applies to all statistical testing used in the monitor. Phase 2 Data analysis in Phase 2 will consist of two parts. The first set of analyses will be to compare annual predictions of 14 C based primary production and other limnological variables made by the pelagic model with those collected in the field. The comparison will provide an indication of the model’s validity and utility as well as provide a means to annually refine the model’s predictive power with new data. The analysis and modelling exercise will employ the same analytical tools as used in Phase 1 of the monitor. The other component of the analysis will be to track pelagic primary productivity over time in each reservoir, and hence test hypothesis H010. The test will be carried out every three years of the monitor. With each compilation of 14 C primary production estimates, an attempt will be made to develop a predictive model so as to interpolate primary production between sampling periods. Like Phase 1, the modelling will rely on multiple linear regression techniques to test for possible relationships. BC Hydro Page 18
Stave River Water Use Plan Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005 As in Phase 1, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, independence and randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to ensure that all statistical tests are being used and interpreted appropriately. 2.3.7 Reporting At the end of each year during the first phase of the monitor, a data summary will be prepared that document the year’s findings. At the conclusion of Phase 1, two reports will be prepared, the first of which summarises the data collected to date. The second report will present and discuss the results of the hypothesis testing exercise, as well as present conceptual and if possible numerical models of reservoir primary productivity. Both reports will be submitted to the Management Committee for review prior to being finalised for general release. As in Phase 1 of the monitor, annual data reports will be prepared to summarise annual findings, each including a discussion of the year’s data relative to those collected in previous years. Part of this discussion will be an assessment of increasing or decreasing temporal trend. Prior to finalising the annual reports, the Management Committee will be given an opportunity to review then and provide comments. At the conclusion of the monitor, a comprehensive report will be prepared from the Phase 1 reports and all of the annual data reports that: a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor, b) Presents the methods of data collection, c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change. Like the annual data reports, the Management Committee will review a draft of the final report prior to its general release. 2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results Monitoring program results will be interpreted in two different ways. The first of these will be in terms of identifying the pathway(s) by which reservoir operations affect primary production in both Stave and Hayward reservoirs - the focus of Phase I of the monitor. It is anticipated that the differences in operation between reservoirs, as well as inter annual variability in operations will provide sufficient contrast to detect trends if such exist. If trends are inconclusive, then it will be considered safe to assume that reservoir operations within the range that was experienced during Phase 1 of the monitor do not affect primary production. Conversely, if measurable trends are found, analytical techniques will be employed to develop both conceptual and if possible, numerical models, that will useful in future WUPs for predicting the outcome of alternative operating strategies BC Hydro Page 19
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Stave River Water Use Plan - BC Hydro

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