Stave River Water Use Plan - BC Hydro
Stave River Water Use Plan - BC Hydro
Stave River Water Use Plan - BC Hydro
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<strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>:<br />
Monitoring Program Terms of Reference<br />
June 13, 2005<br />
<strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> Page 1
<strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong><br />
Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005<br />
Overview<br />
Monitoring Program<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>:<br />
Monitoring Program Terms of Reference<br />
The <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>ning process was completed in the fall of 1999<br />
with the release of a consultative committee report (Failing 1999) and the submission of<br />
draft water use plan (WUP) to the provincial Comptroller of <strong>Water</strong> Rights. The water use<br />
planning process, which involved consultation with a committee of interested<br />
stakeholders to identify water use values and objectives, the completion of several<br />
ecological studies and a gaming procedure to develop balanced operational alternatives,<br />
resulted in substantial knowledge gains about the <strong>Stave</strong> lake watershed. Despite this<br />
considerable effort and the successful development of what the consultative committee<br />
(CC) considered to be a balanced WUP for the <strong>Stave</strong> Lake project (Combo 6 WUP<br />
operating strategy), a number of knowledge gaps and uncertainties remained.<br />
Conditional to the general acceptance the WUP by the CC was the development and<br />
implementation of monitoring program that addresses these shortcomings.<br />
At the conclusion of the WUP consultation process, the consultative committee<br />
(CC) were able identified three general areas of uncertainty. The first was the extent to<br />
which the productivity levels in both <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs would change when<br />
operations specified in the WUP are implemented. The productivity indicators of interest<br />
included seasonal nutrient levels, seasonal levels of photosynthetic carbon (an indicator<br />
of general lake productivity), seasonal levels of littoral periphyton production at various<br />
water depths, and a general assessment of fish biomass. The latter indicator was<br />
deemed to be the one of greatest interest, but was also the most difficult and expensive<br />
to obtain. The CC anticipated an increase in all indicators of reservoir productivity as a<br />
result of the WUP. However, the premise with which this expectation was based was<br />
rather tenuous and the CC was uncertain as to whether the productivity benefit would be<br />
realised.<br />
The second area of uncertainty dealt with the potential impacts of flow<br />
fluctuations on the reproductive cycle anadromous salmonids downstream of Ruskin<br />
Dam. These flow fluctuations arise because of peaking operations and can be very<br />
large. In some cases these fluctuations were viewed as a positive impact by limiting the<br />
extent of spawning activity along the river margins where there is a high likelihood of<br />
redd stranding during the incubation period. This may be offset however, by increased<br />
stranding of gravid adults. There is also a potential increased risk to fry stranding when<br />
peaking operation extend into the fry out-migration period. By studying the diel timing of<br />
this out-migration, the CC felt that it might be possible to find ‘windows of time’ during<br />
which changes in discharge could occur with minimal fry stranding.<br />
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Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005<br />
The last area of uncertainty arose because of concerns regarding the quality of<br />
drinking water extracted from Hayward reservoir by local residents, and how it may<br />
change because of more frequent and larger fluctuations in reservoir water levels.<br />
To address these uncertainties, the CC recommended that a number of<br />
monitoring studies be carried out. A total of nine studies were recommended, each with<br />
the aim of either determining whether expected ecological benefits were being realised<br />
or to expand the general knowledge about the system’s ecology for future decision<br />
making processes. Based the CC recommendations, a monitoring program was<br />
developed with the following elements grouped according the general areas of<br />
uncertainty identified above:<br />
Tab/Chapter<br />
Reservoir Productivity (<strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward Reservoirs)<br />
Pelagic Monitor (Nutrient Load/Total Carbon Levels) ................................................ 1<br />
Littoral Productivity Assessment ................................................................................ 2<br />
Fish Biomass Assessment ......................................................................................... 3<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> Program (downstream of Ruskin Dam)<br />
Limited Block Load as Deterrent to Spawning ........................................................... 4<br />
Risk of Adult Standing ................................................................................................ 5<br />
Risk of Fry Stranding .................................................................................................. 6<br />
Diel Pattern of Fry Out-migration ............................................................................... 7<br />
Seasonal Timing and Assemblage of Fish Residence ............................................... 8<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Quality Assessment<br />
Turbidity Levels in Hayward Reservoir ....................................................................... 9<br />
Management Committee<br />
In addition to monitoring studies, the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> WUP CC recommended that a<br />
multi-stakeholder management committee be struck to oversee the general progress of<br />
the overall monitoring program (Failing 1999). The committee is to be comprised of<br />
representatives from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), Ministry of<br />
Environment Lands and Parks (MELP) 1 , <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> (<strong>BC</strong>H), Kwantlen First Nations (KFN),<br />
and the District of Mission. As specified in the WUP, the general mandate of the <strong>Stave</strong><br />
Management Committee, as it pertains to the monitoring program, will be to:<br />
a) Make ongoing, management decisions on the monitoring program<br />
b) Liase with Heritage Management Committee (KFN) as needed<br />
c) Liase with the Alouette Management Committee as needed<br />
d) Prepare annual reports<br />
1 Now the Ministry of <strong>Water</strong> Land and Air Protection (WLAP)<br />
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e) Conduct a formal review of the monitoring program after 5 years, which will seek<br />
and incorporate feedback from local management/stakeholder groups.<br />
The primary responsibility of the <strong>Stave</strong> Management Committee will be to make<br />
ongoing management decisions that pertain to the monitor, particularly in those monitors<br />
that require a decision whether to continue after a specified time. The committee will<br />
also be responsible for final review and general distribution of all reports that relate to<br />
each monitor, including the preparation of annual summary reports of all monitors.<br />
Program Cost<br />
The overall program cost for the ten-year monitoring program is estimated to be<br />
$1,703,000. This total is $137,000 less than the amount reported in the CC report<br />
(Failing 1999) and represents a 7% reduction over initial estimates when adjusted for<br />
2004 dollars. Another difference with the CC report proposal is the annual distribution of<br />
monitor dollars. Rather than having all monitors start in year 1 and therefore, have a<br />
very high initial cost to the monitor, the start dates were staggered over several years to<br />
spread out sampling effort. As a result, annual costs are more evenly distributed over<br />
the course of the monitor. A summary of the monitoring cost for the entire program,<br />
including a comparison with monitor estimates presented by Failing (1998), is presented<br />
in Table 1.<br />
The monitoring plan budget estimate includes a provision for the development of<br />
a ten-year detailed project plan, which includes the process of seeking final approval of<br />
the plan with the <strong>Stave</strong> Management Committee. The cost given is the same as that<br />
reported in the CC report (Failing 1998), but adjusted to 2004 dollars ($30,000), and is<br />
only available in the first year of the program.<br />
Also included in the budget estimate are the funds necessary for project coordination<br />
and management, liaison with the <strong>Stave</strong> Management Committee, and the<br />
preparation of annual summary reports. The assigned cost is the same as that reported<br />
in the CC report (Failing 1999), but adjusted to 2004 dollars ($27,500). This project<br />
management fund will be the same for every year of the program, though in actuality it is<br />
likely to vary form year to year depending on the number of meetings with the<br />
Management Committee, the number of ongoing studies, and prevailing circumstances.<br />
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Table 1: Summary of individual monitor costs for the <strong>Stave</strong> WUP monitoring program. All costs are in 2004 dollars except where<br />
indicated.<br />
Monitor<br />
Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3<br />
Annual Cost (2004 dollars)<br />
Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
10 Year<br />
Program Cost<br />
Detailed Program <strong>Plan</strong> & Approval $ 30,000 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 30,000<br />
Pelagic Productivity $ - $ 32,715 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 23,108 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 22,478 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 22,478 $ 269,888<br />
Littoral Productivity $ - $ 74,795 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 518,788<br />
Fish Biomass $ - $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 254,325<br />
Limited Block Load $ - $ 44,385 $ 21,410 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 87,595<br />
Adult Stranding $ - $ - $ 20,095 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 20,095<br />
Fry Stranding $ - $ - $ 29,630 $ 29,630 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 59,260<br />
Fry Out-Migration $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 39,390 $ 38,865 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 78,255<br />
Resident Fish $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 27,695 $ 6,195 $ - $ - $ - $ 33,890<br />
Turbidity $ - $ 8,060 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 75,875<br />
Program Coordination/Management $ - $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 27,500 $ 275,000<br />
Annual Program Cost $ 30,000 $ 215,670 $ 199,055 $ 177,255 $ 175,390 $ 175,075 $ 169,755 $ 147,130 $ 130,645 $ 147,625 $ 135,370 $ 1,702,970<br />
WUP approved Cost (2004 dollars) $ 30,913 $ 378,588 $ 250,625 $ 190,453 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 141,321 $ 1,839,829<br />
Cost difference (Approved - Actual) $ 913 $ 162,918 $ 51,570 $ 13,198 -$ 34,069 -$ 33,754 -$ 28,434 -$ 5,809 $ 10,676 -$ 6,304 $ 5,951 $ 136,859<br />
% Variance<br />
Expected Program Cost assuming<br />
3% 43% 21% 7% -24% -24% -20% -4% 8% -4% 4% 7%<br />
2% inflation per annum $ 30,912 $ 219,982 207,096 $ 188,103 $ 189,847 $ 193,296 $ 191,171 $ 169,005 $ 153,070 $ 176,425 165,014 $ 1,883,922<br />
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Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005<br />
1. Pelagic Monitor (Nutrient Load/Total Carbon Levels)<br />
1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
During the <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>ning (WUP) process, several difficulties were<br />
encountered when trying to assess the impacts of facility operations on the overall<br />
productivity of <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs. These difficulties stemmed from the<br />
paucity of productivity related information specific to these reservoirs and the lack of<br />
resources needed to fill these data gaps. Rather than abandon this component of the<br />
WUP trade off process, an evaluation procedure was developed based on surrogate<br />
performance measures was developed using general models of lake ecosystem<br />
function, general knowledge of ecosystem impacts arising from impoundment practices,<br />
published data from other reservoirs through out North America, and the little reservoirspecific<br />
data that was available. The result was an impact assessment model that<br />
divided the productivity of <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs into pelagic (open water) and<br />
littoral (near shore) components and reported overall productivity in each reservoir in<br />
terms of the rate of total annual carbon assimilation (Failing 1999).<br />
Though the use of this paradigm allowed the WUP to proceed to a successful<br />
conclusion, it was generally acknowledged among CC members that it was rather a<br />
simplistic view of reservoir ecology and hence, fraught with uncertainty. Four key<br />
elements of uncertainty were identified, two of where are the subject of the present<br />
monitor. The first uncertainty is in the assumption that pelagic productivity would remain<br />
unaffected by changes in reservoir operations, at least within the range of operations<br />
being investigated. This assumption arose because of insufficient information to indicate<br />
otherwise and was deemed to be consistent with what is generally known about pelagic<br />
ecosystems. Accepting this assumption simplified the interpretation of the carbon<br />
assimilation estimates in that noted changes could be directly attributed to changes in<br />
littoral productivity. This however, may not be the case if the assumption of ‘pelagic<br />
immunity’ is found to be invalid.<br />
The other key uncertainty is the method by which total carbon assimilation was<br />
calculated and the underlying assumption that it would serve as a reasonable indicator<br />
of fish production potential. Annual carbon assimilation rate was calculated from a<br />
simple, linear regression equation developed from lake data collected throughout <strong>BC</strong> (J<br />
Stockner Pers comm.). The data set did not include storage reservoirs and was<br />
primarily directed towards measures of pelagic productivity. Therefore, its application to<br />
a reservoir setting was considered to be suspect, including its use as an overall indicator<br />
of reservoir productivity. Also contributing to the uncertainty is the large error associated<br />
with the predictions made with this equation (Failing 1999). Finally, it was generally<br />
acknowledged that the assumed link between carbon production and fish production<br />
potential was a rather tenuous one and fraught with uncertainty. Its adoption into the<br />
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decision making process was driven primarily by the absence of any other kind of<br />
production-based information.<br />
In recognition of these uncertainties, the CC recommended that they be<br />
addressed by a comprehensive monitoring program design to improve the decision<br />
making process in future WUPs. Consultative committee acceptance of Combo 6 as the<br />
preferred operating alternative for the <strong>Stave</strong> Lake generation facility was conditional on<br />
the design and implementation of such a monitoring program (Failing 1999). The<br />
monitor presented here is focused on the pelagic environment. The other two<br />
uncertainties alluded to above, are the subject of a separate monitor geared towards<br />
studies in the littoral zone. It address uncertainties associated with the use of the<br />
Effective Littoral Zone performance measure to capture changes in littoral productivity<br />
and the examines the importance of littoral productivity relative to that of pelagic waters.<br />
Because the direct measurement of total annual production (i.e., direct measure<br />
of flora and fauna growth) is beyond the budgetary scope of this monitoring program, the<br />
CC accepted the use of primary productivity (the annual production of phytoplankton) as<br />
an alternative index measure. As a result, the monitor described here is focused<br />
primarily on this trophic level of production.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
The consultative committee identified four key management questions pertaining<br />
to the pelagic productivity of <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs:<br />
a) What is the current level of pelagic productivity in each reservoir, and how does it<br />
vary seasonally and annually as a result of climatic, physical and biological<br />
processes, including the effect of reservoir fluctuation?<br />
This information is required to identify the key determinants that currently<br />
govern/constrain the level of productivity in each reservoir. Once these<br />
environmental factors have been identified, an assessment can be carried out to<br />
determine whether they are susceptible to change given alternative reservoir<br />
management strategies. Environmental factors that are susceptible to change<br />
are then monitored through time in conjunction with the productivity indicator<br />
variable (in this case primary productivity). This information sets up the<br />
foundation for the next management question.<br />
b) If changes in pelagic productivity are detected through time, can they be<br />
attributed to changes in reservoir operations as stipulated in the WUP, or are<br />
they the result of change to some other environmental factor?<br />
This information allows one to clearly determine whether a causal link between<br />
reservoir operations and reservoir pelagic productivity exists, and if so, to<br />
describe its nature for use in future WUP processes.<br />
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c) To what extent would reservoir operations have to change to 1) illicit a pelagic<br />
productivity response; and 2) improve or worsen the current pelagic state of<br />
productivity?<br />
d) Given the answers to the management questions above, to what extent does the<br />
Combo 6 operating alternative improve reservoir productivity in pelagic waters,<br />
and what can be done to make improvements, whether they be operations based<br />
or not.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
This monitor is primarily concerned with whether reservoir management actions<br />
influence the level of pelagic productivity in <strong>Stave</strong> and/or Hayward reservoirs. However,<br />
overall reservoir productivity is very difficult and costly to measure directly. As a result,<br />
the CC recommended the use of a weight-of-evidence approach, which indirectly<br />
examines the issue through a series of testable impact hypotheses. A total of 10<br />
hypotheses were identified for the present monitor. Collectively, they form an impact<br />
hypothesis model that explores the interrelationship of various environmental factors on<br />
productivity, as well as inter-trophic interactions (Figure 1). The impact hypotheses,<br />
expressed here as null hypotheses (i.e., hypotheses of no difference or correlation), are<br />
tested separately for each reservoir and relate primarily to levels of primary productivity.<br />
H01: Average reservoir concentration of Total Phosphorus (TP), an indicator of<br />
general phosphorus availability, does not limit pelagic primary productivity.<br />
H02: Relative to the availability of phosphorus as measured by the level of total<br />
dissolved phosphorus (PO4), the average reservoir concentration of nitrate (NO3)<br />
does not limit pelagic primary productivity. Nitrate is the dominant form of<br />
nitrogen that is directly bio-available to algae and is indicative of the general<br />
availability of nitrogen to pelagic organisms.<br />
H03: <strong>Water</strong> retention time (τw) is not altered by reservoir operations such that it<br />
significantly affects the level of TP as described by Vollenweider’s (1975)<br />
phosphorus loading equations (referred to here as TP(τw)).<br />
H04: <strong>Water</strong> temperature, and hence the thermal profile of the reservoir, is not<br />
significantly altered by reservoir operations.<br />
H05: Changes in TP as a result of inter annual differences in reservoir hydrology (i.e.,<br />
TP(τw)) are not sufficient to create a detectable change in pelagic algae biomass<br />
as measured by levels of chlorophyll a (Chla). [This hypothesis can only be<br />
tested if H03 is rejected]<br />
H06: Independent estimates of algae biomass based on TP(τw) and Secchi disk<br />
transparency (SD) prediction equations are statistically similar, suggesting that<br />
neither non-algal turbidity, nor intensive zooplankton grazing, are significant<br />
factors that influence standing crop of pelagic phytoplankton (Carlson 1980, cited<br />
in Wetzel 2001)<br />
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H07: The effect of non-algal turbidity on pelagic algae biomass, as indicated by the<br />
difference in independent predictions of Chla by TP(τw) and SD (Carlson 1980,<br />
cited in Wetzel 2001), does not change as a function of reservoir operation.<br />
H08: The ratio of ultra-phytoplankton (< 20 µm in size) to micro-phytoplankton (20-200<br />
µm in size) abundance is not altered by reservoir operations and hence, does not<br />
change through time with the implementation of the WUP Combo 6 operating<br />
strategy.<br />
H09: The size distribution of the pelagic zooplankton population (an indicator of fish<br />
food bioavailability as larger organisms tend to be preferred over small ones) is<br />
not altered by reservoir operations and hence, does not change through time with<br />
the implementation of the WUP Combo 6 operating strategy.<br />
H010: Primary production, as measured through C14 inoculation, is not altered by<br />
reservoir operations and hence, does not change through time with the<br />
implementation of the WUP Combo 6 operating strategy.<br />
Hypotheses H01 to H07 examine and put into context the most likely pathways by<br />
which reservoir operations may impact primary productivity. Collectively, these<br />
hypotheses define a crude model of reservoir operation effects on pelagic primary<br />
productivity that will lead to a greater understanding of such impacts, and ultimately to a<br />
prediction of possible outcomes when future operational strategies are explored. A<br />
schematic of the model is shown in Figure 1.<br />
Reservoir<br />
Operations<br />
Nutrient<br />
Inflow<br />
<strong>Water</strong><br />
Retention<br />
Temperature<br />
Profile<br />
Turbidity<br />
Nutrient Bioavailability<br />
Primary<br />
Productivity<br />
Secondary<br />
production<br />
Fish<br />
Productivity<br />
Figure 1: Schematic diagram of the pelagic impact hypothesis model illustrating<br />
how H01 to H08 inter-relate to affect primary productivity and ultimately<br />
fish productivity. Littoral productivity also plays a significant role, but<br />
is excluded from this illustration as it is dealt with in a separate<br />
monitor.<br />
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Hypothesis H08 establishes the primary pathway by which carbon and other<br />
nutrients enter the food web, and reflects the general growing conditions of<br />
phytoplankton. A predominance of ultra-phytoplankton tends to indicate poorer growing<br />
conditions, which collectively include the influences nutrient levels, water temperature,<br />
light availability etc. (Wetzel 2001). Conversely, a predominance of micro-phytoplankton<br />
indicates an excellent growing environment.<br />
Hypothesis H09 explores the linkage between primary production and fish<br />
production by examining the size structure of zooplankton (secondary production). Of<br />
importance is the density of larger organisms that tend to constitute the majority of<br />
pelagic fish food production.<br />
Hypothesis H010 is an independent test of the impact hypothesis model as it<br />
pertains to the WUP Combo 6 operating strategy.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decision Affected<br />
In the absence of reliable predictions on the effect of dam operations on <strong>Stave</strong><br />
reservoir productivity, it was assumed that pelagic productivity would remain unchanged<br />
over the spectrum of feasible reservoir operating strategies. However, the CC<br />
recognised that there was considerable uncertainty in this assumption, but had no<br />
information with which to form other, more probable outcomes. This monitor is designed<br />
to:<br />
a) Test the validity of this assumption of no operational impact, and confirm that<br />
pelagic conditions have not worsened with the new Combo 6 operating strategy.<br />
b) Provide the information necessary to promote a better understanding of the<br />
pathways by which operational changes can affect primary productivity (the<br />
chosen indicator variable of fish productivity), and in turn provide better<br />
predictions of operational impacts for future WUP reviews.<br />
In addition, this monitor attempts to develop a better linkage between the effect<br />
of reservoir operations on primary productivity and the potential for fish production.<br />
Collectively, this information will lead to conclusions regarding the expected<br />
benefits of the Combo 6 operating strategy, and whether alternative strategies should be<br />
proposed if these benefits are not realised. Through a better understanding of reservoir<br />
ecosystem dynamics, its may be possible to find improvements to the Combo 6<br />
operating strategy that may increase operational flexibility without compromising<br />
reservoir ecosystem function. Specific actions that may lead to such improvements<br />
cannot be identified at this time because of the complexity of the <strong>Stave</strong> Lake project.<br />
The complex modelling exercises needed to identify such actions is beyond the scope of<br />
this monitor and should be reserved for future WUP processes.<br />
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2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area will consist on <strong>Stave</strong> Lake and Hayward Lake Reservoirs.<br />
b) Data will be collected at three sites; two on <strong>Stave</strong> Lake reservoir because of<br />
potential spatial gradients in light, wind an nutrient exposure, and only one on<br />
Hayward Lake reservoir which is much smaller and less prone to spatial<br />
heterogeneity.<br />
c) The program is to be carried out in two phases, an initial 2-3 year high intensity<br />
sampling program, and a subsequent base level sampling program.<br />
d) The monitor is to continue for 10 years or until the next WUP review period.<br />
e) The monitor will focus primarily on variables associated with measures of pelagic<br />
primary productivity, a component of reservoir productivity that is assumed to be<br />
a suitable indicator of overall productivity.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The general approach to the pelagic monitor is to identify the primary pathways<br />
by which reservoir operations may affect overall productivity, as indicated by changes in<br />
primary productivity, through impact hypothesis testing. The necessary physical,<br />
chemical and biological data will be collected to test each of the 9 hypotheses listed in<br />
Section 1.3. Depending on the acceptance or rejection of each hypothesis, a conceptual<br />
model will be developed to predict the direction of change in productivity for a given<br />
change in operation. If the conceptual model is proved valid, an attempt will be made to<br />
develop a numerical model to predict the magnitude of change. The success of this<br />
modelling exercise will be depend on the variability of the data collected, the variability of<br />
year to year reservoir operations and the strength of correlation among parameters.<br />
Data collection and analysis will proceed as a two-phased program. The initial<br />
phase will last 2-3 years and will involve an intensive data collection program designed<br />
to test all impact hypotheses listed in Section 1.3. During this phase, light intensity,<br />
Secchi Disk depth, water temperature, oxygen level, daily solar irradiation, total<br />
dissolved phosphorus concentration, total nitrate concentration, chlorophyll a<br />
concentration, phytoplankton community structure, zooplankton community structure,<br />
and 14 C estimates of primary production will be collected at each study site every 6 to 8<br />
weeks. Because of the high cost of lab analysis, the set of 14 C estimates of primary<br />
production will only be done once every 3 years. At the conclusion of this phase, a<br />
report will be prepared that summarises the finding in terms of hypotheses H01 to H010,<br />
and attempts to construct conceptual and if possible, an initial numerical model of<br />
pelagic primary production in each reservoir.<br />
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The next phase of the monitor will be of much lower sampling intensity, but will<br />
be carried out annually till the next WUP review process. During this phase, only light<br />
intensity daily solar irradiation, total dissolved phosphorus concentration, total nitrate<br />
concentration, chlorophyll a concentration and 14 C estimates of primary production will<br />
be collected. Sampling frequency will be reduced to 4 sampling periods per year (May<br />
to November), the dates of which are to be set according to annual patterns uncovered<br />
in Phase 1 of the monitor. These data are not only going to be useful in testing and<br />
refining models developed in Phase 1, but will be used to track pelagic productivity over<br />
time to determine whether there are changes in response to annual differences in<br />
reservoir operation. As well, these data will be incorporated into the littoral productivity<br />
monitor to track the ratio of littoral to pelagic production and how it may affect overall<br />
reservoir productivity (Wetzel 2001).<br />
It should be noted that the data collection component of Phase 1 has been<br />
completed, and an initial data report has been prepared (Stockner and Beer 2004).<br />
However, QAQC of the data and hypothesis testing have not been done, nor have the<br />
modelling exercises been started.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
The scope of the monitor, the parameters to be measured and the frequency of<br />
sampling have already been discussed in the preceding sections. The sections that<br />
follow will describe the method of data collection for each of the variables listed in<br />
Section 2.2. Because data collection for Phase 1 of the program has been completed,<br />
focus of this section will be on Phase 2 of the monitor, and the methods will be described<br />
in sufficient detail to ensure consistency between phases.<br />
2.3.1 <strong>Water</strong> Quality – Physical Variables<br />
Light intensity (µmole quanta m -2 s -1 ), will be measured at 1 m intervals to a depth<br />
beyond the point at which photosythetically active radiation PAR (light with a wavelength<br />
between 400 to 700 µm) is 1% that of the surface or to the lake bottom, whichever is<br />
reached first. It is essential that the sensor be vertical, and that the boat does not cast a<br />
shadow over the sensor while being lowered. A 0 m reading (a film of water should be<br />
on the surface of the sensor) should be taken prior to and immediately following the<br />
sensor reading at depth. The LiCor Model Li-250 submersible quantum sensor is highly<br />
recommended for this application to maintain consistency with historical measurements.<br />
Vertical profiles of PAR will be natural-log transformed and plotted against depth to<br />
obtain an estimate of the light extinction coefficient (k). Vertical profiles will be collected<br />
every 8 weeks to define the annual cycle of the euphotic zone – the volume of water that<br />
is capable of sustaining photosynthetic activity, as well as the cycles for light<br />
compensation depth and the light extinction coefficient. The latter two variables, in<br />
conjunction with Secchi disk readings taken with a 20 cm weighted disk on the shaded<br />
side of the boat, will be incorporated into the pelagic productivity diagnostic tool<br />
developed by Carlson (1980) (cited in Wetzel 2001) to test hypothesis H06. The latter<br />
two variables will also be used in the littoral monitor.<br />
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<strong>Water</strong> temperature (°C) and oxygen level (O2, mgL -1 ) will be measure at 1 m<br />
intervals to a depth just beyond the thermocline, and then at 5 m intervals to the lake<br />
bottom (i.e., sediment surface). It is essential that the O2/temp sensor be calibrated and<br />
kept vertical by use of a lead weight for each sampling occasion. The temperature data<br />
will be used to define the epilimnetic zone, a parameter necessary to model nutrient<br />
dynamics during period of thermal stratification. The O2 data will be used to monitor O2<br />
deficits in the hypolimnion and provide an indication of potential nutrient availability at<br />
times of lake-turnover. In Phase 1, vertical profiles of water temperature and O2 will be<br />
carried out every 4 to 6 weeks to capture annual cycles in stratification. Sampling<br />
frequency will then drop to every 8 weeks during the months of May to November for<br />
Phase 2 of the monitor.<br />
In addition to the in situ variables above, data on total daily solar irradiation will<br />
be collected from the Greater Vancouver Regional District who operates a LI-200SA<br />
pyranometer in Port Moody. This data will be used to monitor daily fluctuations in total<br />
solar irradiation, and hence correct for daily/annual fluctuations in potential<br />
photosynthetic productivity when comparing samples.<br />
2.3.2 <strong>Water</strong> Quality – Chemical<br />
<strong>Water</strong> quality samples at each of the sample sites (Figure 2) will be collected by<br />
a vertical, non-metallic Van Dorn sampler at 1, 3 and 5 m depths below the water<br />
surface. The three ~ 500 ml samples will be poured in a large (2 L) dark bottle and then<br />
mixed to get a single representative sample for the site. All samples/site for water<br />
quality analysis will be drawn from this mixed epilimnetic sample.<br />
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To analyse total phosphorous (TP) content, the TP sample test tubes and caps<br />
(one per site) will first be rinsed with the sampled water, and then filled, capped and<br />
labelled. At no time will the mouth of the bottle or the inside of the cap be touched, as it<br />
can easily become contaminated. Once filled, the sample test tubes should be placed in<br />
a cooler and then refrigerated until analysed. Once per field trip, two sample bottles of<br />
double distilled water (DDW) will be prepared as blanks for comparison purposes.<br />
Figure 2: Map of <strong>Stave</strong> Lake and Hayward Lake reservoirs showing monitor sampling<br />
locations<br />
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In preparation for dissolved phosphorus and nitrogen (in the form of N03)<br />
analysis, the mixed epilimnetic water sample will be field filtered using a 47 mm filtering<br />
manifold equipped with an ashed GF/F filter. Prior to filtering, the filter will be rinsed with<br />
180 ml of DDW, and then rinsed again with 180 ml of the sampled epilimnetic water.<br />
Plastic 120 ml sample bottles will be rinsed by filtering 60 ml of the Van Dorn sampled<br />
water into each bottle, which will then be capped and shaken. All filtrate to this point will<br />
be discarded. The rinsed sample bottles will then be filled with filtered epilimnetic water,<br />
capped tightly, and immediately frozen. Once per field trip, two sample bottles of double<br />
distilled water (DDW) will be prepared as blanks for comparison purposes.<br />
During Phase 1, water quality samples will be collected every 4-6 weeks to<br />
determine annual trends. In phase 2, sampling frequency will be reduced to 4 times per<br />
year (every 8 weeks during months of May to November). All samples will be to be sent<br />
immediately to a certified chemistry laboratory for analysis. For consistency purposes it<br />
is recommended that the Department of Fisheries and Oceans chemistry lab in Cultus<br />
Lake should be used. The data obtained from this analysis will be used to test<br />
hypotheses H01, H02, and H05 to H07 in Section 1.3.<br />
2.3.3 <strong>Plan</strong>kton<br />
Phytoplankton<br />
Phytoplankton community structure will be determined by visual assessment of<br />
water samples collected by vertical Van Dorn sampler at depths 1, 3, and 5 m below the<br />
water surface. Each sample will be stored in 250 ml glass bottles to which 2 ml of acidic<br />
Lugol’s iodine solution has been added as a preservative. Samples are to be stored in a<br />
cool dark location until analysed. Sampling at each site (Figure 2) will occur monthly<br />
between March and November each year. Only one sample per site will be taken and<br />
analysed.<br />
Prior to enumeration by the Utermohl (1958) method, the sample will be shaken<br />
for 60 s, poured into 25 ml settling chambers, and then allowed to settle for a minimum<br />
of 8 hr. Counts should be done with an inverted phase-contrast plankton microscope.<br />
Counting will follow a two step process starting with an enumeration of microphytoplankton<br />
(e.g., diatoms, dinoflagellates, and blue-green algae) in the first 5-10<br />
random fields at a microscope magnification of 250X. This will be followed by a random<br />
transect (10-15 mm in length) count where magnification is increased to 1560X to<br />
enumerate ultra-phytoplankton (e.g., pico-cyanobacteria and nano-flagellates). In total,<br />
a minimum of 250 cells will be counted per sample to ensure statistical accuracy. All<br />
enumerated cells will be identified to the nearest species taxon level. Counts will be<br />
reported as an abundance value (cells·ml -1 ) and in terms of biovolume (mm 3 L -1 ).<br />
During phase 1 of the monitor, phytoplankton enumeration will be carried out<br />
every 4 to 6 weeks each year to capture seasonal and annual trends. The level of<br />
phytoplankton sampling effort will be reduced to just one sample per site, per year for<br />
Phase 2 of the monitor. The maximise the utility of the phase 2 samples, it will have to<br />
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be collected at the same time of year, preferable during late summer when the when<br />
reservoir levels are consistent between years due to recreational constraints. The data<br />
will be used to test hypothesis H08 of the monitor.<br />
Chlorophyll<br />
In addition to the phytoplankton counts, water samples will be collected to<br />
estimate chlorophyll a concentration, an indicator of phytoplankton standing crop. At<br />
each station, 500 ml water samples will be collected at 1, 3, and 5 m below surface, and<br />
mixed together in a large dark glass bottle to yield a single depth integrated sample.<br />
Starting with 500 ml of the mixed epilimnetic water, field-filter the sub-sample using a<br />
47 mm filtering manifold with a 0.45 µm Millipore HA filter. Should the filter become<br />
plugged, discard the sub-sample and re-start the filtering process with a new 250 ml<br />
sub-sample. At no time should the vacuum pressure of the filtering mechanism exceed<br />
20 cm Hg. When dry, the filter should be folded, placed in small round aluminium<br />
dishes, and kept frozen until analysed.<br />
During phase 1 of the monitor, Chlorophyll samples will be collected every 4 to 6<br />
weeks to capture annual trends in phytoplankton standing crop. In Phase 2, the level of<br />
sampling effort will be reduced to 4 times per year (every 8 weeks between May and<br />
November). All samples will be to be sent immediately to the Department of Fisheries<br />
and Oceans chemistry lab in Cultus Lake for analysis. The data obtained from this<br />
analysis will be used to test hypotheses H05 and H07 in Section 1.3.<br />
Zooplankton<br />
Zooplankton samples will be collected by Wisconsin vertical trawl hauls at each<br />
sample station (Figure 2). The Wisconsin trawl net, which should not have a mesh size<br />
greater than 80 µm and a throat diameter of 50 cm, will be lowered to a depth of 30 m<br />
and hauled up at a speed of 0.5 m·s -1 . Once out of the water, the net should be rinsed<br />
with a wash bottle to ensure that all organisms are in the collecting cup (cod-end). The<br />
contents of the collecting cup are then washed into a plastic storage bottle to which<br />
ethanol has been added as a preservative.<br />
Prior to enumeration, the total volume of the sample will be stirred and split with a<br />
Folsom splitter to a volume that contains at least 100 post nauplii stages of the most<br />
abundant taxa. Enumeration will be done on a gridded petri-dish using a stereo<br />
microscope under suitable magnification. Taxonomic identification will be taken to the<br />
species level. Body length of individuals will be measured to the nearest 0.1mm, and<br />
then using published length weight relationships (McCauley 1984) assign an<br />
approximate dry weight (µg). The resulting data will then be used to determine species<br />
density (No·L -1 ) and biomass (µg·L -1 ), as well as overall length distributions. These data<br />
will then be used to test hypothesis H09.<br />
During phase 1 of the monitor, zooplankton enumeration will be carried out every<br />
4 to 6 weeks each year to capture seasonal and annual trends. In phase 2 of the<br />
monitor, zooplankton sampling effort will be reduced to just one sample per year, and<br />
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analysis will be limited to the development of a length frequency distribution (no<br />
identification will occur beyond the family level of taxon). The maximise the utility of the<br />
phase 2 samples, it will have to be collected at the same time of year, preferable during<br />
late summer when the when reservoir levels are consistent between years due to<br />
recreational constraints. The data will be used to test hypothesis H08 of the monitor.<br />
2.3.4 14 C Estimate of Primary Production<br />
Primary production (mgC·m -2 d -1 ) will be estimated by H 14 CO3 inoculation as<br />
described by Strickland (1960). <strong>Water</strong> samples will be collected by Van Dorn sampler at<br />
1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 m depths. Each depth-sample will be transferred equally to three<br />
300 ml BOD (Biological Oxygen Demand) bottles, the first two of which are clear to allow<br />
photosynthetic uptake of C 14 . The third bottle is darkened to exclude light so as to<br />
measure C 14 uptake through respiration alone. Each of the sample bottles will be<br />
inoculated with 1 ml of 3.7 µCIE·ml -1 · 14 C-HC03 using a 1 ml Eppendorf pipette with<br />
disposable tips (the fist aliquot of C 14 from a freshly filled tip should be discarded). After<br />
inoculation, the sample bottles will be to be lowered to their respective collection depths<br />
and incubated for 2-3 hr. Incubation should be initiated as close to 10 am as possible,<br />
but not allowed to continue beyond 1 pm. Following incubation, the inoculated samples<br />
are to be retrieved and placed into a light-tight metal box for storage.<br />
Within 4 hours of collection, the inoculated samples should be filtered through a<br />
0.2 µm, 47 mm diameter, polycarbonate membrane filter. Once filtered, the filters are<br />
transferred to scintillation vials where 4 drops of 6N HCL are added. After addition of the<br />
scintillation fluor, the vials are to be sent to the Radiation Laboratory at the University of<br />
British Columbia where analysis of beta activity (an indicator of 14 C update) will be<br />
carried out on a Beckman© Beta scintillation counter using standard protocols. Raw<br />
primary production estimates will be reported as depth specific mg 14 C·m -2 hr -1 , but be<br />
integrated across all water depths when discussing daily production rates (i.e., mgC·m -<br />
2 d -1 ). The daily primary production values will be used to test hypothesis HO10 in Section<br />
1.3 and will only be collected 4 times per year every three years (starting in year three of<br />
the monitor).<br />
2.3.5 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Of particular concern are the safety protocols<br />
surrounding the transport and use of low level radioactive materials such as 14 C. Only<br />
licensed practitioners can purchase the radioactive 14 C product needed for the<br />
inoculation procedure. As well, investigators that perform the inoculations must also be<br />
appropriately certified to handle and transport the material.<br />
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2.3.6 Data Analysis<br />
Phase 1<br />
All data will be entered into Excel spreadsheets for analysis and presentation.<br />
Physical and chemical attribute data from the pelagic sample sites of each reservoir will<br />
be summarised using descriptive statistics and analysed for annual trends. The data will<br />
also be used to test hypotheses H01 to H07 based on published criterion and trophic<br />
level relationships. Between-site and between-reservoir comparisons will only be<br />
descriptive in nature, as there are no replicates to estimate sample variance for<br />
statistical testing.<br />
<strong>Plan</strong>kton identification and enumeration data will be similarly summarised in<br />
tables for between-site and between-reservoir comparisons. Also of interest would be<br />
tests for annual trends in community structure, as well as analyses of depth distributions<br />
of key classes of phytoplankton. The data will also be used to test hypotheses H08 and<br />
H09.<br />
The 14 C estimates of pelagic primary production will be the first in a series to be<br />
collected over the next 10 years. Because only a single data set will exist, primary<br />
production will only be discussed relative to between-site and between-reservoir<br />
differences, as well as indications of an annual trend. Test of H010 will have to wait for<br />
until sufficient yearly samples are collected.<br />
The modelling exercise will utilise multiple linear regression techniques to relate<br />
various summary descriptors of reservoir hydraulics to summary statistics of nutrient<br />
concentration, chlorophyll level, and when possible primary production. Where<br />
necessary, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity, independence and<br />
randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to ensure that statistical<br />
tests are being used appropriately. This test of assumptions applies to all statistical<br />
testing used in the monitor.<br />
Phase 2<br />
Data analysis in Phase 2 will consist of two parts. The first set of analyses will be<br />
to compare annual predictions of 14 C based primary production and other limnological<br />
variables made by the pelagic model with those collected in the field. The comparison<br />
will provide an indication of the model’s validity and utility as well as provide a means to<br />
annually refine the model’s predictive power with new data. The analysis and modelling<br />
exercise will employ the same analytical tools as used in Phase 1 of the monitor.<br />
The other component of the analysis will be to track pelagic primary productivity<br />
over time in each reservoir, and hence test hypothesis H010. The test will be carried out<br />
every three years of the monitor. With each compilation of 14 C primary production<br />
estimates, an attempt will be made to develop a predictive model so as to interpolate<br />
primary production between sampling periods. Like Phase 1, the modelling will rely on<br />
multiple linear regression techniques to test for possible relationships.<br />
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As in Phase 1, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity,<br />
independence and randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to<br />
ensure that all statistical tests are being used and interpreted appropriately.<br />
2.3.7 Reporting<br />
At the end of each year during the first phase of the monitor, a data summary will<br />
be prepared that document the year’s findings. At the conclusion of Phase 1, two<br />
reports will be prepared, the first of which summarises the data collected to date. The<br />
second report will present and discuss the results of the hypothesis testing exercise, as<br />
well as present conceptual and if possible numerical models of reservoir primary<br />
productivity. Both reports will be submitted to the Management Committee for review<br />
prior to being finalised for general release.<br />
As in Phase 1 of the monitor, annual data reports will be prepared to summarise<br />
annual findings, each including a discussion of the year’s data relative to those collected<br />
in previous years. Part of this discussion will be an assessment of increasing or<br />
decreasing temporal trend. Prior to finalising the annual reports, the Management<br />
Committee will be given an opportunity to review then and provide comments.<br />
At the conclusion of the monitor, a comprehensive report will be prepared from<br />
the Phase 1 reports and all of the annual data reports that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods of data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Like the annual data reports, the Management Committee will review a draft of the final<br />
report prior to its general release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
Monitoring program results will be interpreted in two different ways. The first of<br />
these will be in terms of identifying the pathway(s) by which reservoir operations affect<br />
primary production in both <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs - the focus of Phase I of the<br />
monitor. It is anticipated that the differences in operation between reservoirs, as well as<br />
inter annual variability in operations will provide sufficient contrast to detect trends if<br />
such exist. If trends are inconclusive, then it will be considered safe to assume that<br />
reservoir operations within the range that was experienced during Phase 1 of the<br />
monitor do not affect primary production. Conversely, if measurable trends are found,<br />
analytical techniques will be employed to develop both conceptual and if possible,<br />
numerical models, that will useful in future WUPs for predicting the outcome of<br />
alternative operating strategies<br />
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The monitor will also be interpreted in terms of accepting or rejecting the<br />
assumption made during the WUP process that pelagic productivity does not change in<br />
response to reservoir operations. This assumption was adopted largely because of a<br />
lack of information that indicates otherwise. Though CC members were tempted to<br />
assume some sort of causal relationship, there was too little data available to determine<br />
its general nature with any degree of certainty. A direct test of this assumption through<br />
annual comparisons of primary production estimates, in conjunction with the result of<br />
Phase 1 of the monitor, will lead to its rejection or validation.<br />
If deemed valid, the impetus will be to explore the possibility of relaxing reservoir<br />
constraints as an option in future WUPs. However, if deemed invalid, the models and<br />
monitor information can be used to assess the benefits of further constraining reservoir<br />
operations and enhance overall productivity. These constraints however, will be at the<br />
cost of other values in the system. To help resolve such conflicts, the results of the<br />
monitor may be used to develop appropriate non-operational alternatives. It should be<br />
stressed that the discussion of future actions will occur at the next WUP process.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
As indicated in section 2.2, much of Phase 1 has already been completed, but<br />
the final QA/QC of the data, as well as the hypothesis testing and modelling components<br />
of the monitor, have yet to be started. Part of the work in year 1 will be to finish the<br />
tasks of Phase 1, including a final report summarising all of the information and analyses<br />
as they pertain to the WUP.<br />
Because Phase 1 is near completion, Phase 2 of the monitor will also be started<br />
in year 1 of the monitor. Every three years, a 14 C estimate of primary production will be<br />
carried out until the end of the monitor at the next WUP review process - a period of 10<br />
years.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the monitor is estimated to be $269,900. Roughly $10,200 of<br />
this amount is to cover the costs of completing Phase 1 of the monitor while the<br />
remainder is for carrying out Phase 2. The annual cost will cycle between $22,500 and<br />
$33,900 per year depending on whether a 14 C estimate of primary production is done.<br />
Average annual cost of the 10-year monitor is $26,000 per year, a value within $1000<br />
(4%) of the proposed cost listed in the CC report (Failing1998).<br />
The costs given above are based on the cost of services and products in 2004.<br />
When adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total program cost is expected to be closer<br />
to $300,800. A summary breakdown of the labour costs and expenses is provided in<br />
Table 1-1.<br />
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Table 1-1: Estimated costs for the pelagic productivity monitor. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety planning,<br />
regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 7,000<br />
Field Data Collection Sr. Biologist $ 850 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 $ 11,900<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $ 24,000<br />
Technicien 2 $ 300 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $ 12,000<br />
Data Entry Technicien 1 $ 300 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 6,000<br />
Data Analysis Sr. Biologist $ 850 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 9,350<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 9 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 5 $ 34,800<br />
Reporting Sr. Biologist $ 850 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 $ 11,900<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 $ 37,800<br />
Technicien 1 $ 500 14 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 43,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ 1,390 $ 903 $ 1,018 $ 933 $ 903 $ 1,018 $ 903 $ 903 $ 1,018 $ 903 $ 9,888<br />
Total Labour $ 29,190 $ 18,953 $ 21,368 $ 19,583 $ 18,953 $ 21,368 $ 18,953 $ 18,953 $ 21,368 $ 18,953 $ 207,638<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 $ 4,500<br />
Boat Rental $ 250 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $ 10,000<br />
Chlorophyll a $ 25 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 $ 3,000<br />
Nutrients $ 65 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 $ 7,800<br />
Phytoplankton $ 165 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 4,950<br />
Zooplankton $ 50 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 1,500<br />
14<br />
C (per sample) $ 150<br />
60 60 60 $ 27,000<br />
sample vials $ 5 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 $ 1,500<br />
Report reproduction $ 200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 2,000<br />
Total Expenses $ 3,525 $ 3,525 $ 12,525 $ 3,525 $ 3,525 $ 12,525 $ 3,525 $ 3,525 $ 12,525 $ 3,525 $ 62,250<br />
Program Total $ 32,715 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 23,108 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 22,478 $ 22,478 $ 33,893 $ 22,478 $ 269,888<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ 33,368 $ 23,385 $ 35,966 $ 25,011 $ 24,816 $ 38,167 $ 25,819 $ 26,335 $ 40,504 $ 27,399 $ 300,770<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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2.7 References<br />
Carlson, R. E. 1980. More implications in the chlorophyll-Secchi disk relationship.<br />
Limnol. Oceanogr. 25:378-382. (Cited in Wetzel 2001)<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 p + App.<br />
McCauley, E. 1984. The estimation of the abundance and biomass of zooplankton in<br />
samples. In: Downing, J.D. and F. H. Rigler (eds). 1984. A Manual on Methods<br />
for the Assessment of Secondary Productivity in Fresh <strong>Water</strong>s – 2nd ed.,<br />
Blackwell Scientific Publications.<br />
Strickland, J. D. H. 1960. Measuring the Production of marine phytoplankton. Bull. J.<br />
Fish. Res. Baord Can. 122, 172 p.<br />
Stockner, J. G. and J. Beer. 2004. The limnology of <strong>Stave</strong>/Hayward reservoirs: with a<br />
perspective on carbon production. Prepared for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>s by<br />
Eco-logic Ltd. and University of British Columbia, Institute For Resources,<br />
Environment and Sustainability, Vancouver. 33 p. + App.<br />
Utermohl, H. 1958. Zur Vervollkommnung der quantitativen Phytoplankton methodik.<br />
Int. Verein. Limnol. Mitteilungen No. 9. (Cited in Stockner and Beer 2004)<br />
Vollenweider, R, A. 1975. Input-outout models, with special refernce to the phosphorus<br />
loading concept in limnology. Schweiz. Z. <strong>Hydro</strong>l. 37:53-84. (Cited in Wetzel<br />
2001)<br />
Wetzel, R. G. 2001. Limnology: Lake and <strong>River</strong> Ecosystems 3 rd Edition. Academic<br />
Press. New York. 1006 p.<br />
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1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
2. Littoral Productivity Assessment<br />
During the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> process, the consultative committee (CC)<br />
identified the need to study the effects of water level fluctuation on the littoral zone<br />
productivity of Hayward and <strong>Stave</strong> reservoirs. This requirement arose largely from<br />
concerns raised by fisheries interests that the littoral zone in <strong>Stave</strong> reservoir may have<br />
been seriously damaged by water level fluctuations. It was further hypothesised that the<br />
loss of a fully functional littoral zone could have significantly impacted the overall<br />
biological (carbon) production of the ecosystem. These concerns however, were not<br />
based on actual measures of impact. From site visits and comparisons to unaltered lake<br />
systems, it was clear that the water level fluctuations in <strong>Stave</strong> Reservoir have had a<br />
serious impact on littoral productivity. However, the full extent and nature of the impact<br />
remains to be quantified. Also uncertain was how this loss/gain relates to productivity<br />
levels of the system as a whole (i.e., to what extent does littoral productive contribute to<br />
overall system productivity?).<br />
In an attempt to account for this potential loss in system productivity for trade-off<br />
analysis purposes, a performance measure was developed that estimates the areal<br />
extent of ‘potentially productive’ littoral habitat. The measure, termed the ‘Effective<br />
Littoral Zone’ or ELZ, quantifies the area of aquatic shoreline habitat that receives<br />
adequate light to promote photosynthetic activity and remains wetted for specified<br />
occurrence frequencies. A description of how the measure is calculated can be found in<br />
Appendix 2 of the consultative committee report (Failing 1999). Although the ELZ<br />
performance measure was used during the development of the WUP, its accuracy as a<br />
measure of productive littoral habitat remains untested.<br />
The <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> generation complex provides a unique opportunity to test the<br />
utility of ELZ measure. The complex consists of three reservoirs, two of which have<br />
highly variable water levels, while the other is kept relatively stable. The contrast in<br />
operation between reservoirs allows one to compare ELZ predictions with empirical data<br />
collected under differing degrees of reservoir stability. The loss of the littoral zone was<br />
deemed to be an extremely important issue by the CC. However, decisions made about<br />
reservoir operations in the WUP were based on an untested measure of this loss. As a<br />
result, a comprehensive study of littoral zone impacts, and the ELZ measure used to<br />
quantify it, was deemed an essential component of the WUP. The results of the study<br />
would be used in future <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> WUPs to clarify the issues surrounding this loss of<br />
littoral zone productivity. It may also lead to the development of a littoral zone<br />
productivity performance measure that could be transferable to other <strong>BC</strong>H facility WUPs.<br />
At the conclusion of the WUP process, the CC reached a consensus to adopt the<br />
Combo 6 operating strategy as the preferred alternative for the next ten years (Failing<br />
1999). One of the reasons the alternative was chosen was because of the expected<br />
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benefits in littoral habitat. Because relevance of the ELZ measure was untested, the CC<br />
expressed concern whether the perceived littoral benefit would actually be realised. As<br />
a result, the CC also recommended that a monitor be designed and implemented to<br />
measure changes in littoral zone development following implementation of the Combo 6<br />
operating strategy.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
The consultative committee identified four key management questions that must<br />
be addressed pertaining to the littoral productivity of <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward reservoirs.<br />
These are:<br />
a) What is the current level of littoral productivity in each reservoir, and how does it<br />
vary seasonally and annually as a result of climatic, physical and biological<br />
processes, including the effect of reservoir fluctuation?<br />
This information is required to identify the key determinants that currently<br />
govern/constrain the littoral productivity in each reservoir. Once these<br />
environmental factors have been identified, an assessment can be carried out to<br />
determine whether they are susceptible to change given alternative reservoir<br />
management strategies. Environmental factors that are susceptible to change<br />
are then monitored through time in conjunction with the productivity indicator<br />
variable (in this case primary productivity). This information sets up the<br />
foundation for the next management question.<br />
b) If changes in littoral productivity are detected through time, can they be attributed<br />
to changes in reservoir operations as stipulated in the WUP, or are they the<br />
result of change to some other environmental factor?<br />
This information allows one to determine whether there is a significant, causal<br />
link between reservoir operations and reservoir littoral productivity, and if so,<br />
describe its nature for use in future WUP processes, particularly in the context of<br />
the ELZ performance measure. Implicit in this question is that gains or losses in<br />
primary productivity reflect gains or losses in overall fish production.<br />
c) A performance measure was created during the WUP process so as to predict<br />
potential changes in littoral productivity based on a simple conceptual model.<br />
The Effective Littoral Zone (ELZ) performance measure was used extensively in<br />
the WUP decision making process, but its validity is unknown. Is the ELZ<br />
performance measure accurate and precise, and if not, what other environmental<br />
factors should be included (if any) to improve its reliability?<br />
The ELZ performance measure is purely a conceptual construct at this stage.<br />
Because decisions were made based on the values of this performance<br />
measure, it is imperative that it be validated in terms of its accuracy, precision,<br />
and reliability. Because littoral productivity is affected by reservoir operations<br />
elsewhere in the province, the ELZ tool may prove useful in other WUPs. Its<br />
transferability to other reservoirs should also be investigated.<br />
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d) To what extent would reservoir operations have to change to 1) illicit a littoral<br />
productivity response, and 2) improve/worsen the current littoral and overall<br />
productivity levels?<br />
e) Does the Combo 6 operating alternative improve reservoir littoral productivity as<br />
was expected in the WUP. Is there anything that can be done to improve the<br />
response, whether it be operations-based or not?<br />
This is a compliance component of the monitor and is designed to assess<br />
whether the expected increase in littoral productivity was realised.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
Measures of littoral productivity in lacustrine environments are difficult, and<br />
therefore costly to obtain directly. As a result, the CC recommended that a weight-ofevidence<br />
approach be used to examine the relationship between littoral productivity and<br />
reservoir operations. This approach relies on a series of impact hypothesis tests to<br />
construct a likely model that describes the causal relationship, should one exist. The<br />
impact hypotheses, expressed here as a set of null hypotheses (i.e., hypotheses of no<br />
difference or correlation), are tested separately for each reservoir and relate to levels of<br />
primary productivity as an indicator of potential fish productivity. The impact hypotheses<br />
are such that they can be grouped to deal with a common issue.<br />
The first set is almost identical to the first five hypotheses identified in the pelagic<br />
monitor, except that they rely on irradiance and chlorophyll data collected in the littoral<br />
zone rather than at pelagic sites. These hypotheses collectively try to identify the extent<br />
to which nutrient concentrations limit the potential maximum level of productivity in the<br />
littoral zone. These tests provide context to the overall analysis, but more importantly<br />
they are an attempt to take into account the confounding role of nutrient limitation on the<br />
outcome and interpretation of the monitor. The impact hypotheses are as follows:<br />
H01: Average reservoir concentration of Total Phosphorus (TP), an indicator of<br />
general availability of phosphorus is not limiting to littoral primary productivity.<br />
[Relies on data collected during the pelagic monitor and assumes that nutrient<br />
concentrations are uniform through out each reservoir]<br />
H02: Relative to the availability of phosphorus as indicated by level of total dissolved<br />
phosphorus (PO4), the average reservoir concentration of nitrate (NO3) is not<br />
limiting to littoral primary productivity. Nitrate is the dominant form of nitrogen<br />
that is directly bio-available to algae and higher plants and is indicative of the<br />
general availability of nitrogen to littoral organisms. [Relies on data collected<br />
during the pelagic monitor and assumes that nutrient concentrations are uniform<br />
through out each reservoir]<br />
H03: <strong>Water</strong> retention time (τw) is not altered by reservoir operations such that it<br />
significantly affects the level of TP as described by Vollenweider’s (1975)<br />
phosphorus loading equations (referred to here as TP(τw)). [Relies on data<br />
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collected during the pelagic monitor and assumes that nutrient concentrations<br />
are uniform through out each reservoir]<br />
H04: <strong>Water</strong> temperature, and hence the thermal profile of the reservoir, is not<br />
significantly altered by reservoir operations. [Relies on data collected during the<br />
pelagic monitor and assumes that nutrient concentrations are uniform through<br />
out each reservoir]<br />
H05: Changes in TP as a result of reservoir operations (through changes in τw) are not<br />
sufficient to create a detectable change in littoral algae biomass as measured by<br />
littoral levels of chlorophyll a (CHL). [Relies on data collected during the pelagic<br />
monitor and assumes that nutrient concentrations are uniform through out each<br />
reservoir]<br />
The next suite of hypotheses deals with the general premise that littoral<br />
productivity in clear, low nutrient lakes tends to be much greater than pelagic<br />
productivity, and hence defines the productivity of the system as a whole. Underlying<br />
this premise is the theory that in clear, low nutrient systems, incoming nutrients are<br />
quickly assimilated into the littoral zone before getting a chance to work their way to the<br />
pelagic zone via the littoral food web. Conversely, when turbid conditions exist, the low<br />
light levels inhibit littoral growth and thus allow pelagic productivity to prevail. Similarly,<br />
when eutrophic conditions exist, the ability for the littoral system to sequester nutrients is<br />
overwhelmed, also allowing the pelagic system to flourish. As pelagic productivity<br />
increases, the high biomass reduces light penetration and in turn begins to inhibit<br />
productivity in the littoral zone. This feedback mechanism allows the pelagic zone to<br />
eventually dominate overall lake productivity (Wetzel 1983, Dodds 2003, Liboriussen<br />
and Jeppensen, 2003).<br />
Included in this suite of hypotheses is a test of the premise that nutrient cycling<br />
processes in the littoral zone slows the overall loss of phosphorus (either by outflow or to<br />
hypolimnetic sediments), and therefore, increases overall lake productivity compared to<br />
similar systems without a substantial littoral zone (Wetzel 1983).<br />
During the WUP, it was assumed that the two theories above applied to the<br />
<strong>Stave</strong>-Hayward system, and that the importance of the littoral zone to overall system<br />
productivity was deemed to be very high. The <strong>Stave</strong>–Hayward reservoir system<br />
however, is not a shallow water lake system. Also, the two reservoir systems tend to be<br />
very steep sided, so that the aerial extent of the littoral habitat may not be very large,<br />
even under ideal hydraulic conditions. Because of these two reasons, it is possible that<br />
the assumed theoretical importance of littoral zone productivity may be incorrect for<br />
these two reservoirs.<br />
Fortunately, the <strong>Stave</strong>-Hayward reservoir system does provide a unique<br />
opportunity to test this assumption. The <strong>Stave</strong> Lake reservoir, under present conditions,<br />
has limited littoral development because of the extensive drawdown events that it<br />
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experiences. Hayward reservoir on the other hand, tends to be quite stable. If the<br />
assumption is indeed correct, then the following two hypotheses would hold true:<br />
H06: Overall primary production (as measured by 14 C inoculation and/or as inferred<br />
from ash free dry weight data) of <strong>Stave</strong> reservoir is less than that of Hayward<br />
Lake<br />
H07: Pelagic primary production dominates in <strong>Stave</strong> reservoir while littoral production<br />
dominates in Hayward reservoir.<br />
With the new WUP regime, the frequency and extent of drawdown in the <strong>Stave</strong><br />
system is expected to decrease, while that of the Hayward system is likely to increase.<br />
Based on the assumptions that lead to the development of the ELZ performance<br />
measure (Appendix 2 of Failing 1999), these changes are expected to alter the quantity<br />
of littoral habitat suitable for primary production, and hence have an impact on overall<br />
system primary production. The extent with which this may occur, if indeed a response<br />
occurs at all, is uncertain. The test of this premise is the subject of the final set of<br />
hypotheses. It is important to note that in testing these hypotheses, one is also testing<br />
the validity of the ELZ measure. The null hypotheses are:<br />
H08: Stable reservoir levels do not lead to maximum littoral development as measured<br />
by 14 C inoculation and/or inferred from ash free dry weight data.<br />
H09: <strong>Water</strong> level fluctuations that raise the euphotic zone (defined here as the depth at<br />
which photosythetically active radiation (PAR) is 1% that of the water surface)<br />
from lower elevations does not lead to a collapse of littoral primary production (as<br />
measured by 14 C inoculation and/or inferred from ash free dry weight data) that<br />
occurred near the prior 1% PAR depth.<br />
H010: Littoral zone productivity, as measured by 14 C inoculation and/or inferred from<br />
ash free dry weight data, remains unchanged as reservoir water level stability<br />
increases.<br />
H011: Changes in littoral productivity (as measured by 14 C inoculation and/or inferred<br />
from ash free dry weight data) are expressed primarily in terms of changes in<br />
areal extent as defined by upper and lower boundary elevations. Within these<br />
boundaries, primary production does not vary in proportion to accumulated PAR<br />
exposure under wetted conditions [this is the premise that has lead to the<br />
development of the ELZ performance measure].<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
During the WUP process, the perceived loss of littoral habitat in <strong>Stave</strong> Lake<br />
reservoir was deemed to be critical with respect to the overall productive capability of the<br />
system. Among the options explored was a reservoir management strategy that<br />
imposed restrictions on the extent of drawdown in the reservoir so as to partially recover<br />
some of the lost littoral habitat. The modelling exercise however, showed that reservoir<br />
stabilisation options would come at a cost to downstream fish habitat values. As a<br />
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result, the option was not explored further because the downstream habitat costs were<br />
deemed too high for what was judged to be an uncertain gain in reservoir productivity.<br />
Furthermore, the final reservoir management strategy accepted by the CC had within it<br />
constraints in downstream releases that inherently created a slightly more stable state in<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> reservoir. The CC agreed to study the consequences of the present WUP, and<br />
hence learn more about the littoral productivity response to water level stability, before<br />
exploring further the concept of imposing reservoir constraints in future WUP processes.<br />
Constraints to reservoir operations, should they be deemed necessary, will come<br />
at a high cost to many other values, including power, downstream habitat, and First<br />
Nations heritage issues. Clearly defining the relative importance of the littoral zone to<br />
over all reservoir productivity, as well as identifying the extent of recovery need to<br />
restore full productivity, will help to identify alternative solutions, whether they be<br />
operational or physical in nature, that are more cost effective.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area will consist on <strong>Stave</strong> Lake and Hayward Lake Reservoirs.<br />
b) Data will be collected at four sites; three on <strong>Stave</strong> Lake reservoir because of<br />
potential spatial differences, and one on Hayward Lake reservoir.<br />
c) The program is to be carried out in two phases, an initial 2-3 year high intensity<br />
sampling program, and a subsequent base level sampling program.<br />
d) The monitor is to continue to the next WUP review period.<br />
e) The monitor will focus of variables associated with measures of littoral primary<br />
productivity, a parameter assumed to be a component of overall reservoir<br />
productivity.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The basic study design is to compare periphyton growth at various reservoir<br />
elevations in <strong>Stave</strong> Reservoir (a highly variable system) with the pattern found in<br />
Hayward Reservoir (a relatively stable system). Growth will be measured by repeatedly<br />
sampling periphyton biomass on artificial substrate. The artificial substrata will be<br />
mounted on cinder blocks that are placed along permanently established transect lines<br />
(Figure 2, Monitor 1) where they will be spaced roughly every 2 m in depth beginning at<br />
the ‘full pool’ elevation to a depth equivalent to the light compensation depth at minimum<br />
operating elevation. Periphyton growth will be characterised by several parameters,<br />
including chlorophyll concentrations, ash-free dry weight estimates of biomass accrual,<br />
14 C primary production, and species composition.<br />
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Samples will be collected along three transects in <strong>Stave</strong> Reservoir, and only one<br />
transect in Hayward Reservoir. <strong>Stave</strong> Reservoir is a large system with high glacial (i.e.<br />
turbid) inflows at its upstream end. As a result, the potential exists that there may be<br />
longitudinal differences in light attenuation rates that in turn could affect the depthrelated,<br />
functional response of periphyton growth. Hayward Lake, on the other hand, is<br />
much smaller, is free of such glacial influences, and would likely experience less<br />
variability.<br />
Each transect will be considered as a single sampling unit. As a result, the<br />
comparisons between transects will only be descriptive in nature. Statistical analyses<br />
will be limited given that replicate samples will not be collected to calculate sample<br />
variance.<br />
As in the pelagic monitor, the littoral zone monitor will be carried out as a twophased<br />
program. The first phase will involve intensive data collection geared towards<br />
addressing hypotheses H01 to H011, but with particular focus on H08 to H011. Littoral<br />
sampling during this phase will done every 5 weeks from April to November and will<br />
involve all variables listed above. The 5-week interval is critical in this monitor, as it is<br />
the maximum time that artificial strata can be left in oligotrophic systems without losing<br />
periphyton growth to grazing or sloughing. As a result, the periphyton accrual data<br />
become accurate indicators of production and when calibrated to 14 C estimates of<br />
production, it can be used as a direct measure of production. One of the key outcomes<br />
of Phase 1 of the monitor will be a numerical model of seasonal littoral productivity<br />
potential based on the founding concepts of the ELZ performance measure. The<br />
likelihood of such an outcome will depend on the extent of between-reservoir<br />
differences, inter-annual variability in reservoir operations and littoral development. Also<br />
a key determinant of the outcome will be the strength of association between operations<br />
and the parameters chosen to define littoral development.<br />
The second phase of the littoral monitor will be far less data intensive and will<br />
focus primarily on annual tests of hypotheses H06, H07 and H010, though anecdotal<br />
observations concerning the other hypothesis will be documented. Phase 2 of the<br />
monitor will rely on the ELZ modelling done in Phase 1 to predict littoral area given the<br />
previous 5 weeks of operation for each reservoir, including a prediction of littoral<br />
productivity. These predictions will in turn be related to measured values of littoral<br />
primary production (from the accrual data) as a test of the littoral zone model (a test of<br />
H010). Results of these annual tests of the ELZ model will be used to refine the model if<br />
necessary and test hypotheses H06 and H07. This annual tracking of hypotheses H06<br />
and H07 will provide important insight into the importance of littoral habitat in coastal<br />
reservoirs, as well as it’s general relationship to reservoir operations.<br />
During Phase 2, all four transects will be sampled every 5 weeks as in Phase 1.<br />
At each transect, periphyton samples will be collected at all sample stations, but only 4<br />
samples will be retained for accrual analysis. The spacing of these samples along the<br />
transect will be such that it captures the spatial trend of maximum productivity as<br />
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indicated by the ELZ model and in situ estimates of periphyton accrual. The 4 accrual<br />
samples will be used to estimate littoral productivity using the 14 C-calibration curve<br />
developed in Phase 1. Every three years, a subset of transects will be subject to 14 C<br />
inoculation to re-evaluate, and correct if necessary, the accrual – primary productivity<br />
calibration curve.<br />
It should be noted that data collection for Phase 1 has already been done, and<br />
an initial data report has been prepared (Beer and Stockner 2004). However, QAQC of<br />
the data and hypothesis testing relative to WUP objectives have not been done, nor<br />
have the modelling exercises been started. In addition, none of the 14 C-inoculation work<br />
has been done.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field methods<br />
Periphyton Growth Substrata<br />
Because of the difficulty in uniformly sampling a natural substrata (e.g. sediment<br />
surface, macrophytes, rocks, woody debris, etc.) with adequate replication, the method<br />
of choice to collect periphyton samples will be the use of artificial substrata (e.g.<br />
Plexiglas plates, glass slides, Styrofoam sheets, wooden sticks, etc.). In the present<br />
study, Plexiglas plates will be used. These plates will be attached to concrete blocks<br />
(25-30 kg) placed or dug into the sediment along a transect line that extends from the<br />
‘splash’ zone to 1m below the mean compensation depth (1% light level) of the reservoir<br />
at low pool (see Figure 2-1). The blocks will be placed at depth intervals between 1.5<br />
and 2 m.<br />
The Plexiglas plate will be elevated above the anchor block to permit movement<br />
of water on both sides. The surface of each plate will be scored with fine sandpaper to<br />
create a surface suitable for algae attachment. Plates will also be scored with a<br />
diamond pen into ‘quadrants’ to permit accurate quantitative sampling (see inset, Figure<br />
2-1). A 10 x 10 cm quadrant (100 cm 2 ) usually supplies sufficient periphyton to easily<br />
detect temporal changes in biomass and species composition in most oligotrophic lakes<br />
or reservoirs (Shortreed et al. 1984). To monitor accrual rates, quadrant sizes need not<br />
be as large. For the present study, the accrual quadrants were only 2.5 x 10 cm (25<br />
cm 2 ) in size. Thus, each plate was partitioned into three 100 cm 2 quadrants, each to<br />
sample for species composition, Chlorophyll a and ash free dry weight biomass<br />
estimates, and eight 25 cm 2 quadrants to carry out accrual sampling (see below).<br />
During Phase 1 of the monitor, all quadrants will be sampled (scraped) and<br />
placed into separate sample vials for appropriate analysis. During phase 2 of the<br />
monitor, sampling will be reduced to only one 100 m 2 quadrant, which will be used to<br />
estimate accrual through ash free dry weight analysis. When necessary, a second<br />
quadrant may be scraped for 14 C production estimation (see below).<br />
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Site Selection and Sampling.<br />
Four transects, one in Hayward and three in <strong>Stave</strong>, that provided sufficient<br />
slope/depth to meet light requirements were first surveyed in January 2000, and blocks<br />
were installed by divers at approximate 1.5-2 m depth intervals in late February (see<br />
Figure 1.1). Samples will be obtained every 6 to 8 weeks except in winter (November to<br />
March) when no samples will be collected. This anchor block/plate method requires<br />
sampling by SCUBA divers for retrieval of plates and replacement after sampling.<br />
Sampling consists of removing the Plexiglas plates from 5 blocks, placing each plate into<br />
a receiving tray that holds 5 plates, and then returning to shore or to vessel with the<br />
plate tray. Accumulated periphyton biomass attached to each plate is then scraped from<br />
quadrants into labelled glass jars. After scraping all quadrants the Plexiglas plate is<br />
returned to the tray and after all 5 have been scraped, plates are returned to their blocks.<br />
The process is repeated for the next set of 5 blocks until all blocks were sampled.<br />
For the purpose of consistency between sampling periods, all quadrants will be<br />
scraped clean, irrespective of whether the samples are used, prior to being returned to<br />
their respective blocks. This will ensure that all plates are similarly seeded at the<br />
beginning of the accrual sampling period.<br />
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Depth<br />
(m) Bench Mark<br />
AFDW<br />
Sp.<br />
Comp.<br />
Chl a<br />
C Accrual<br />
Maximum Reservoir<br />
Elevation<br />
Minimum Reservoir<br />
Elevation<br />
Pressure<br />
Transducer<br />
Figure 2-1: Schematic diagram illustrating the distribution of periphyton sampling<br />
blocks along a transect line to measure the pattern of periphyton growth.<br />
Inset shows the layout of quadrants on the Plexiglas plates on top of each<br />
block.<br />
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2.3.2 Laboratory Methods<br />
Chlorophyll<br />
The periphyton scraped from Quadrant 1 will be filtered through a 47 mm<br />
diameter, 0.45um Millipore HA filter and rinsed twice with double distilled water (DDW).<br />
If periphyton growth is found to be exceptionally heavy, i.e., a predominance of<br />
filamentous green or blue-green algae, then a Whatman GF/F filter will be used instead<br />
of the Millipore filter. The algae-ladened filters will be placed in acetone overnight to<br />
extract the chlorophyll. The resulting solution will then be analysed for chlorophyll<br />
content using a spectrophotometer or Turner © fluorimeter. Chlorophyll concentrations<br />
will be reported on a per-unit area basis, i.e., mg/cm 2 or m 2 . Chlorophyll data will only be<br />
collected during Phase 1 of the monitor.<br />
Ash-free dry weight (biomass)<br />
The periphyton scraped from Quadrant 2 will filtered onto a pre-ashed and<br />
weighed 5.5 cm Whatman GF/F glass fibre filter. After filtration at low vacuum (< 20 cm<br />
Hg), the filters will be folded in half, placed in aluminium weighing dishes and frozen.<br />
The Filters will then be dried in an oven at 105 o C to constant weight, weighed, then<br />
ashed at 500 °C for four hours in a muffle furnace, and then weighed again. Periphyton<br />
biomass will be expressed as a dry weight (DW) and ash-free dry weight (AFDW)<br />
organic content per unit area, i.e., mg/cm 2 or m 2 .<br />
Biomass accrual<br />
The rate of accumulation of organic periphyton biomass or accrual will be<br />
calculated by dividing total organic biomass (AFDW) accumulation by days in the interval<br />
between sampling. Values are then expressed as mg of organic matter·m -2 ·day -1 . For<br />
purposes of comparison, the carbon (C) content of periphyton will be calculated as 50 %<br />
of the organic content (AFDW) in the sample (Stockner and Armstrong 1971). The<br />
accrual rate will be a first approximation of periphyton net production because it does not<br />
account for sloughing or grazing losses during the sampling interval (immersion period).<br />
During phase 1 of the monitor, biomass accrual will be estimated using samples<br />
collected from the 25 cm 2 quadrants. During phase 2 of the monitor however, accrual<br />
will be estimated from a single large sample collected at one of the 100 cm 2 quadrants.<br />
Species composition<br />
Species composition data will only be collected during Phase 1 of the monitor<br />
and will consist of two types of analyses; that of the biofilm community and of the<br />
attached algae community.<br />
Biofilm<br />
The ‘Biofilm’ community is mostly microbial (e.g. bacteria, picoplankters,<br />
flagellates, ciliates and fungi) and constitutes the first successional sere of the<br />
periphyton community in both lakes and streams. A homogeneous 10 ml sub-sample of<br />
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the periphyton from Quadrant 3 will be taken before any preservative is added to the jar,<br />
and placed in a clean, glass scintillation vial. A drop or two of gluteraldehyde or dilute<br />
(4%) formaldehyde will be added to the vial and then labelled and refrigerated. Analyses<br />
of abundance of the various components of this microbial assemblage will be done first<br />
with standard microscopy at low power (200-400x) and then continued with<br />
epifluorescence microscopy. The epifluorescence microscopy technique will require a<br />
small aliquot of the sub-sample be stained with DAPI or an equivalent fluorochrome stain<br />
(Klut et. al.1989).<br />
Attached algae<br />
A few drops of acidic, Lugol's acetate preservative will be added to the remainder<br />
of the Quadrant 3 sample to preserve the periphyton biomass for microscopic analysis.<br />
The contents of the jar will be gently shaken to loosen any clumps and then allowed to<br />
settle for about 10-15 seconds, allowing some of the heavier sand/silt particles to settle<br />
from the sample. Using a wide-mouth syringe, a 2 ml sub-sample of the periphyton will<br />
be placed on a clean glass slide or depression slide for microscopic examination at low<br />
power (100-400x) magnification. If the periphyton is extremely dense, a 1 ml subsample<br />
will be placed in a 10 cc settling chamber with 9 ml of DDW added, and then<br />
examined using an inverted plankton microscope. The initial microscopic examination<br />
will be either a qualitative scan that provides information on relative abundance of major<br />
algal groups, or, by using a counting grid, a quantitative count of actual abundance of<br />
major groups. Attached siliceous diatoms are often the dominant algal assemblage in<br />
the littoral zone of oligotrophic lakes and reservoirs (also in streams), and their density is<br />
easily quantified by counts made from permanent Hyrax © slide mounts made after acid<br />
treatment of the sample (Stockner and Armstrong 1972).<br />
Primary production<br />
Primary production will be measured directly by the carbon 14 ( 14 C) method,<br />
where 14 C is inoculated into small vials with freshly scraped periphyton samples from a<br />
sample plate and incubated in situ. After a two to four-hour incubation period at the<br />
depth of the sampled plate, the contents of the vial are filtered and treated using the<br />
same protocol as described for pelagic primary production rates (Stockner and<br />
Shortreed 1985, Wetzel and Likens 1991). It should be stressed that only licensed<br />
practitioners can purchase the radioactive 14 C product needed for the inoculation<br />
procedure. As well, samplers that perform the inoculations must be certified to handle<br />
low level radioactive materials.<br />
Primary production will only be done during phase 2 of the monitor where two<br />
randomly selected blocks will be subject to the 14 C-inoculation process. Every year, 16<br />
14<br />
C based production estimates will be collected, the purpose of which is to properly<br />
calibrate the AFDW-based production estimates.<br />
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2.3.3 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Of particular concern is the use of divers, who<br />
should be professionally trained, and must follow WCB requirements for dive safety.<br />
Also of concern are the safety protocols surrounding the transport and use of low level<br />
radioactive materials. Only licensed practitioners can purchase the radioactive 14 C<br />
product needed for the inoculation procedure. As well, samplers that perform the<br />
inoculations must be appropriately certified to handle and transport low level radioactive<br />
materials.<br />
2.3.4 Data Analysis<br />
Phase 1<br />
All data will be entered into Excel spreadsheets for analysis and presentation.<br />
Physical and chemical attribute data from littoral area of each reservoir will be<br />
summarised using descriptive statistics and analysed for annual trends. The data will<br />
also be used to test hypotheses H01 to H05 based on published criterion and trophic<br />
level relationships. Between-transect and between-reservoir comparisons will only be<br />
descriptive in nature, as there are no replicates to estimate sample variance for<br />
statistical testing.<br />
The irradiance and water level data will be used in interative, non-linear, least<br />
squares modelling procedure to develop relationships with periphyton biomass,<br />
chlorophyll a concentration, accrual rates and 14 C estimates of production. The<br />
modelling procedure will be based on the founding concepts of the ELZ performance<br />
measure using in the WUP, though the form of the equations tested will depend on the<br />
nature of the data. The modelling exercise will begin by developing transect-specific<br />
model coefficients, which will then be compared and analysed in preparation for a more<br />
general model. The anticipated result of this exercise is a predictive model of littoral<br />
development that correlates well to measures of littoral primary productivity. Successful<br />
development of such a model will add credence to the ELZ performance measure and<br />
are tests of hypotheses H010 and H011. The development process of the model will lead<br />
to tests of H08, H09, and H011.<br />
Analysis of the species community data will proceed by first, categorising all<br />
species as being either early, mid and late succession species. Where there are<br />
consistent species groupings, they will be categorised as being one of many community<br />
types. These category types will then be related to the age and/or stability (defined by<br />
variance in irradiance and water level) of the sampling plates from which they were<br />
collected. Correlations, if found, will be used to develop an inference model of<br />
community structure that can used as part of the ELZ model to enhance the breadth of<br />
predictive capability.<br />
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Where necessary, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity,<br />
independence and randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to<br />
ensure that statistical test are being used appropriately.<br />
Phase 2<br />
Data analysis in Phase 2 will consist of two parts. The first set of analyses will be<br />
to compare annual predictions of 14 C based primary production made by the ELZ model<br />
with those collected in the field. The comparison will provide and indication of the<br />
model’s validity and utility as well as provide a means to annually refine the model’s<br />
predictive power with new data. The analysis and modelling exercise will employ the<br />
same analytical tools as used in Phase 1 of the monitor.<br />
Primary productivity estimates based on 14 C inoculation will be analysed for<br />
trends with the accrual information. This analysis will lead to the development of a<br />
calibration curve that will best predict primary production from the AFDW accrual data.<br />
The littoral estimates of primary production (accrual based) will then be combined with<br />
pelagic values to estimate overall productivity of each reservoir as per Wetzel (2001).<br />
The data collected during this phase of the monitor will provide the first indication of how<br />
the tests of H06 and H07 will likely turn out.<br />
The other component of the analysis will be to annually track the ratio of littoral to<br />
pelagic primary productivity in each reservoir, and hence test hypotheses H06 and H07 in<br />
a repeated measure framework. The test will be carried out each year of the monitor so<br />
as to track the likelihood of change over time.<br />
As in Phase 1, assumptions of linearity, normality, homoscedasticity,<br />
independence and randomness will be assessed prior to proceeding with analyses to<br />
ensure that statistical test are being used appropriately.<br />
2.3.5 Reporting<br />
At the end of each year of the first phase of the monitor, a data summary will be<br />
prepared that document the year’s findings. At the conclusion of the Phase 1, two<br />
reports will be prepared, the first of which summarises the data collected to date. The<br />
second report will present and discuss the results of all hypothesis tests, as well as<br />
present conceptual and numerical models of littoral primary productivity. Both reports<br />
will be submitted to the Management Committee for review before being finalised for<br />
general release.<br />
During Phase 2 of the monitor, annual data reports will be prepared that<br />
summarise the year’s findings, including a discussion of the year’s data relative those<br />
collected in previous years and the likelihood of an increasing or decreasing trend.<br />
Unlike Phase 1, the Management Committee will review all annual reports before being<br />
finalised for general release.<br />
At the conclusion of the monitor, a comprehensive report will be prepared from<br />
the Phase 1 reports and all of the annual data reports that:<br />
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a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods of data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Like the annual data reports, the Management Committee will review a draft of the final<br />
report prior to its general release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
At the conclusion of the monitor, valuable insight will have been gained regarding<br />
the workings of reservoir limnology and primary ecology. An anticipated result of this<br />
new knowledge is an ELZ model capable of predicting the direction and possibly the<br />
magnitude of change in littoral development in response to changes in reservoir<br />
operations. The development of such a model would validate the use of the ELZ<br />
performance measure during the WUP, and would likely replace it in future WUP<br />
proceedings.<br />
It is unlikely the results of the monitor will lead to changes in reservoir operations<br />
prior to the next WUP review. However, the monitor will likely lead to more informed<br />
decision-making at the next WUP process.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
As was noted in Section 2.2, a significant portion of the data collection for Phase<br />
1 of the monitor was been completed. However, some parts of Phase 1 have yet to be<br />
completed, including final QAQC of the data, WUP based hypothesis testing, modelling,<br />
and final report writing. As well, the 14 C based measures of productivity have not been<br />
done. A significant portion of Year 1 will be dedicated to fulfilling all Phase 1 objectives<br />
and associated tasks of the monitor.<br />
Year 1 of the monitor will also see the beginning of Phase 2 of the monitor,<br />
including the start of the three-year cycle of 14 C data collection. The second phase of<br />
the monitor will continue till the next WUP review process, a period expected to last at<br />
least 10 years.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the 10-year littoral productivity monitor is estimated to be<br />
$518,800 in 2004 dollars. When adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total program cost<br />
is expected to be closer to $577,300. The total program cost includes the cost of<br />
completing Phase 1, estimated to be $22,300 because of the volume of the data (3<br />
years of intensive sampling) collected that is to be subjected to analysis, modelling, and<br />
subsequent reporting. The cost also covers that of highly specialised and licensed<br />
experts needed to administer the 14 C inoculations, as well as to oversee the data<br />
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analysis component of the monitor, and to help with model development and the<br />
interpretation of results.<br />
Phase 2 of the monitor cycles in cost between $47,800 and $52,500 every 3<br />
years to include expert review of the 14 C sampling protocol. The average annual cost of<br />
Phase 2 of the monitor is anticipated to be $49,700 in 2004 dollars (excluding the cost of<br />
completing Phase 1 of the monitor). This is in line with the $45,000 cost estimate<br />
reported in the CC report (Failing 1999), particularly if it is adjusted to account for<br />
inflation since 1999. A summary breakdown of the labour costs and expenses involved<br />
is provided in Table 2-1.<br />
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Table 2-1: Estimated costs for the littoral productivity monitor. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety planning,<br />
regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 14,000<br />
(includes dismantle & storage) Project Biologist $ 600 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 6,000<br />
Technicien $ 300 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $ 12,000<br />
Field Data Collection Sr. Biologist $ 850 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 $ 11,900<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 48,000<br />
Technicien 1 / Tender $ 350 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 28,000<br />
Diver 1 $ 600 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 48,000<br />
Diver 2 $ 600 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 48,000<br />
Data Entry Technicien 1 $ 300 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 6,900<br />
Data Analysis Sr. Biologist $ 850 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 9,350<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 16 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 $ 38,400<br />
Reporting Sr. Biologist $ 850 4 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 $ 13,600<br />
Project Biologist $ 600 16 6 6 8 6 6 8 6 6 8 $ 45,600<br />
Technicien 1 $ 500 24 8 8 10 8 8 10 8 8 10 $ 51,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ 2,995 $ 1,708 $ 1,708 $ 1,933 $ 1,708 $ 1,708 $ 1,933 $ 1,708 $ 1,708 $ 1,933 $ 19,038<br />
Total Labour $ 62,895 $ 35,858 $ 35,858 $ 40,583 $ 35,858 $ 35,858 $ 40,583 $ 35,858 $ 35,858 $ 40,583 $ 399,788<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 $ 18,000<br />
Boat Rental $ 250 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 $ 20,000<br />
AFDW (per sample) $ 10 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 $ 35,000<br />
14<br />
C (per sample) $ 150 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 $ 24,000<br />
Sample Plates/Vials $ 2,000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 20,000<br />
Report reproduction $ 200 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 2,000<br />
Total Expenses $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 11,900 $ 119,000<br />
Program Total $ 74,795 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 47,758 $ 47,758 $ 52,483 $ 518,788<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ 76,290 $ 49,686 $ 50,680 $ 56,808 $ 52,727 $ 53,782 $ 60,285 $ 55,955 $ 57,074 $ 63,975 $ 577,260<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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2.7 References<br />
Dodds, W. K. 2003. The role of periphyton in phosphorus retention in shallow<br />
freshwater aquatic systems. Journal of Phycology. 39:840-849.<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
Klut, M.E., J.G. Stockner, and T. Bisalputra. 1989. Further use of fluorochrome in the<br />
cytochemical characterization of phytoplankton. Histochem. J. 21: 645-50.<br />
Liboriussen, L. and E. Jeppensen. 2003. Temporal dynamics in epipelic, pelagic, and<br />
epiphytic algal production in a clear and turbid shallow lake. J. Freshwater<br />
Biology. 48(3):418-431<br />
Shortreed, K.S., A.C. Costella, and J.G. Stockner. 1984. Periphyton biomass and<br />
species composition in 21 British Columbia lakes: seasonal abundance and<br />
response to whole-lake nutrient additions. Can. J. Bot. 62: 1022-1031.<br />
Stockner, J.G. and F.A.J. Armstrong 1971. Periphyton of the experimental lakes Area,<br />
Northwestern Ontario. J. Fish. Res. Bd. Canada 28: 215-29.<br />
Stockner, J.G., and K.S. Shortreed. 1985. Whole-lake fertilization experiments in coastal<br />
British Columbia: empirical relationships between nutrient inputs and<br />
phytoplankton biomass and production. C. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 42: 649-58.<br />
Stockner, J. G. and J. Beer. 2004. The limnology of <strong>Stave</strong>/Hayward reservoirs: with a<br />
perspective on carbon production. Prepared for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>s by<br />
Eco-logic Ltd. and University of British Columbia, Institute For Resources,<br />
Environment and Sustainability, Vancouver. 33 pp. + App.<br />
Vollenweider, R, A. 1975. Input-outout models, with special refernce to the phosphorus<br />
loading concept in limnology. Schweiz. Z. <strong>Hydro</strong>l. 37:53-84. (Cited in Wetzel<br />
2001)<br />
Wetzel, R. G. and G. E. Likens. 1991. Limnological Analyses. 3 rd Edition. Springer-<br />
Verlag, New York. 391 pp.<br />
Wetzel, R.G. 1983. Limnology 2 nd ed. W.B. Saunders Co. Philadelphia, Pa. 860 pp.<br />
Wetzel, R.G. 2001. Limnology. Lake and <strong>River</strong> Ecosystems, Third Edition. Academic<br />
Press. San Diego. 1006 pp.<br />
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1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
3. Fish Biomass Assessment<br />
Early in the WUP process, the consultative committee (CC) identified the need to<br />
improve the fish production of <strong>Stave</strong> and Hayward Lake reservoirs as a key objective of<br />
the process. The capability to measure fish production under current conditions, as well<br />
as the ability to forecast productivity changes as a result of changes in reservoir<br />
operations, was beyond the scope of the WUP project. As a result, indicator variables<br />
had to be used instead for decision-making purposes. <strong>Use</strong> of these indicators, in this<br />
case the effective littoral zone (ELZ) and carbon-based productivity performance<br />
measures (PMs), required that they be directly related to measures of fish productivity or<br />
fish biomass. The causal relationship however, could not be verified at the time of the<br />
WUP and therefore, had to be assumed when the PMs. The CC recognised that there<br />
was considerable uncertainty in this assumed relationship. So when the CC reached<br />
consensus to accept Combo 6 as the preferred WUP operating strategy, they<br />
recommended that a monitoring program be implemented to verify the assumed<br />
correlation between the PMs used for decision–making and empirical measures of fish<br />
biomass (Failing 1999).<br />
Based on the PM modelling results, the Combo 6 operating strategy is expected<br />
to increase in fish biomass as a result of increased littoral productivity (as measured by<br />
the ELZ PM) due to greater stability in reservoir water levels (Failing 1999). This monitor<br />
is designed to test the likelihood that this increase in overall fish biomass does indeed<br />
occur.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
An overall increase in fish biomass was one of the key motivations of the CC to<br />
select operational alternatives that tend to add some degree of stability to reservoir<br />
water levels. Fish biomass however, could not be measured at the time of the WUP<br />
process, nor could it be modelled with certainty. To proceed with the WUP, the CC<br />
assumed that there was a causal relationship between littoral and pelagic productivity,<br />
as indicated by performance measures of primary productivity, and fish biomass.<br />
Though such a relationship is theoretically sound the extent with which fish populations<br />
respond to incremental changes in littoral or pelagic development is unknown. Initially,<br />
the CC explored strategies that explicitly constrain the reservoir to minimise fluctuation.<br />
However, because of this uncertainty in fish response to changes in productivity PM, as<br />
well as the high costs of such strategies, the CC decided to abandon pursuit of<br />
strategies that actively constrain the reservoir until further information is gathered.<br />
Nevertheless, the CC continued to use the assumed relationship in their decisionmaking<br />
processes, which in part lead to the consensus decision to adopt Combo 6 as<br />
the preferred operation. The Combo 6 strategy provided the greatest degree of <strong>Stave</strong><br />
reservoir stability without necessarily imposing reservoir constraints (i.e., the stability<br />
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arose through constraints linked to <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> fish benefits. The uncertainty in the fish<br />
biomass - productivity relationship lead to the following management questions:<br />
a) Is the relationship between fish production and littoral production such that the<br />
expected increase in littoral productivity as a result of the Combo 6 operating<br />
strategy leads to a measurable increase in fish biomass?<br />
b) By what extent does littoral productivity have to change in order to elicit a fish<br />
biomass response?<br />
The management questions above assume that pelagic production does not<br />
change with the implementation of Combo 6 operations and therefore does not<br />
contribute to increases in fish biomass. As indicated in the pelagic monitor, there is<br />
uncertainty as to whether this is the case. Evaluation of the management question<br />
should also include tests with indicators of pelagic productivity. This is reflected in the<br />
statement of impact hypotheses, as well as in the description of methods.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
There are two null hypothesis that are being tested with this monitor:<br />
H01: Overall fish biomass in <strong>Stave</strong> reservoir does not change over time following<br />
implementation of Combo 6 WUP operations.<br />
If the Combo 6 operation does indeed increase littoral productivity in <strong>Stave</strong> Lake<br />
reservoir as expected by the CC, the corresponding fish biomass response will<br />
be gradual if it exists and may take several years to fully manifest. This is in<br />
response to the time it takes for this increased littoral productivity to work its way<br />
through the various trophic levels of the food web, as well as through all the<br />
different age classes of all fish species. If the increase in littoral productivity is<br />
persistent every year, and fish mortality remains the same, a new plateau in<br />
annual fish biomass will be reached.<br />
H02: Between-year differences in species and cohort-specific fish biomass estimates<br />
are not correlated to indicators of littoral and pelagic primary productivity<br />
following the implementation of Combo 6 WUP operations.<br />
Test of this hypothesis will assess the likelihood that a direct link exists between<br />
fish biomass and indicators of pelagic and littoral productivity. This is a key<br />
assumption adopted by the CC to evaluate the reservoir benefits of various<br />
operating strategies of during the WUP process. The species and cohorts of<br />
interest will be those that are detectable by the hydro acoustic equipment during<br />
the initial survey period. Choice of productivity indicators will depend on the<br />
outcome of the pelagic and littoral monitors.<br />
Given the inter annual variability in <strong>Stave</strong> Lake reservoir hydrology, it is unlikely<br />
the degree of reservoir stability will be the same each year, and therefore neither would<br />
the extent of littoral and pelagic production. These inter-annual differences in<br />
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productivity could have a direct consequence on the year’s abundance and/or size data<br />
of specific cohorts. Where as H01 examines the integrated effects of operations on fish<br />
biomass over time, H02 examines the direct impact of operations on the year’s fish<br />
cohorts, particularly during the summer growing season. Together, they provide the<br />
information necessary to address the management questions in the preceding section.<br />
It is important to note that fish biomass (kg·m -2 ) is not a measure of fish<br />
production. Rather it is an instantaneous measure of net fish production (kg·m -2 ·yr -1 ),<br />
which is defined as the gross production of new fish matter minus the losses due to<br />
respiration, excretion, secretion, death and predation (includes fishing and entrainment<br />
losses). In addition, the response of the biomass measure will likely be gradual over<br />
time as the impact of increased productivity works its way through the food web and<br />
through the full multi-year life cycle of different fish species.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
The importance attached to the issue of reservoir stabilisation by the CC was in<br />
part driven by the belief that it would result in increased fish production, and hence<br />
overall fish biomass, because of the increased littoral zone productivity it would bring. If<br />
the linkage between reservoir stabilisation and fish biomass is indeed confirmed, it would<br />
lead to a greater emphasis by the CC on trying to achieve a more stable reservoir<br />
operation, though the extent to which that would occur would be limited due to the high<br />
costs associated with it. Conversely, if the linkage were would to be weak, emphasis on<br />
reservoir stabilisation goals would lessen, and therefore may lead to a relaxation of fishbased<br />
reservoir constraints.<br />
The high cost of reservoir stabilisation would likely spawn innovative, alternative<br />
solutions to the issue. Examples may include the use of artificial reefs to increase the<br />
surface area that attached algae and other plants can bond to within the ELZ, or the<br />
introduction of slow release fertiliser in increase its production potential. Results of the<br />
monitor would help in defining the magnitude and scope of such initiatives.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area will consist only of <strong>Stave</strong> Lake Reservoir<br />
b) Biomass estimates are to be collected annually at a standardised time of year.<br />
c) The monitor is to continue to until the next WUP review period (10 years).<br />
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2.2 Approach<br />
Fish biomass estimation will rely on hydro-acoustic survey data collected<br />
annually at a standardised time of the year. Reservoir elevation should also be similar<br />
so that sampling conditions are consistent between years. Each year, the biomass<br />
estimate and corresponding error values will be plotted with previous year’s data. Trend<br />
analysis will be used to determine the likelihood that fish biomass is increasing,<br />
remaining the same, or decreasing.<br />
To help interpret the hydro-acoustic survey data, a fish survey will be carried out<br />
as well. These surveys will only be done every second year and will consist of day and<br />
night trawls, minnow trapping, and gillnetting techniques. One of the outcomes of the<br />
survey is to associate target strength and location data with particular fish sizes and<br />
species. It is also an opportunity to collect fish morphometric data for between-year<br />
comparisons and to test for correlations with littoral and pelagic primary productivity data<br />
collected in Monitors 1 and 2.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field Methods<br />
Field methods will consist of two parts, a hydro acoustic component that collects<br />
fish size and abundance data and a fish survey component that is needed to group the<br />
size and abundance data in to species and size at age categories. The two parts are<br />
described in the sections that follow.<br />
<strong>Hydro</strong> Acoustic Survey<br />
A hydro acoustic survey of <strong>Stave</strong> Lake will be carried out annually at a<br />
standardised time of year, preferably in late summer. In year one of the monitor, the<br />
optimal configuration of sounding equipment, as well as a standardised pattern of<br />
sounding transects, will be developed to standardise the data collection procedure. This<br />
will allow the survey to be replicated in subsequent years and hence minimise the<br />
potential for inter annual sampling error.<br />
<strong>Hydro</strong> acoustic surveys will be done with specially designed echo-sounding<br />
equipment and supporting software, and will involve to use of split beam transducers<br />
and/or transducer rotators to improve sounding accuracy in <strong>Stave</strong> reservoir’s difficult<br />
shoreline and bottom terrain. Surveys will be carried out both at night and during the<br />
day to track potential diel movements (vertical or offshore migration patterns) which may<br />
affect biomass estimation results. The level of sampling effort should not exceed 2 days<br />
for all sampling needs (this excludes travel costs, which may be extensive, since there<br />
are few qualified operators in <strong>BC</strong>). This specified level of effort should be sufficient to<br />
adequately sample the reservoir (B. Sables pers. comm.).<br />
Fish Survey<br />
Fish morphometric data will be needed to help interpret the hydro-acoustic<br />
survey data. Fish capture will involve a number of techniques, including the use of day<br />
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and nigh trawling sets (requires the use of a specially equipped boat), and a variety of<br />
gillnet sets. Both day and night time gillnet sets will be done, and will include floating,<br />
sinking, and drifting sets. All sampling will conform to RIC standards (1998) and the<br />
level sampling effort is not to exceed that which can be reasonably accomplished by a<br />
two-person crew over a three-day period. This level of sampling effort should be<br />
sufficient to meet the needs for interpreting the hydro-acoustic data (B. Sables pers.<br />
comm.)<br />
All fish caught during the survey will be identified to species and measured for<br />
standard length and wet weight. If necessary, fish will be anaesthetised by CO2<br />
saturation prior to measurement. Fish found alive in the traps will be returned to the<br />
reservoir. Dead fish however, will be autopsied in the field for sex, gonadal maturity, and<br />
stomach content information.<br />
2.3.2 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Of particular concern is the night-time operation of<br />
boats in the reservoir, which has few landmarks that are visible at night for navigation.<br />
Also of concern will be boater safety during the fish sampling procedure, as there tends<br />
to be high recreational boat use during the preferred time of sampling. High recreational<br />
use in the reservoir also raises the issue vandalism, which can be prevalent in the area.<br />
2.3.3 Data Analysis<br />
Fish biomass (kg·ha -1 ) will be estimated using standard software designed<br />
specifically for translating hydro-acoustic survey data. The biomass estimate and<br />
corresponding estimate of error will be appended to previous year’s data to be plotted as<br />
a time series. Each year, trend analysis will be carried out determine the likelihood that<br />
biomass is increasing, remaining the same, or decreasing. Results of this analysis will<br />
determine whether hypothesis H01 is to be accepted or rejected. It should be noted that<br />
every second year, interpretation of the hydro-acoustic survey would have to rely on fish<br />
morphometric data collected from the previous year’s survey.<br />
Fish catch and morphometric data will be described using simple descriptive<br />
statistics and summary tables. The primary intent of the analysis will be to support<br />
interpretation of hydro-acoustic survey data. However, because of the nature of the<br />
data, between year comparisons of catch-per-unit-effort and fish morphometry (e.g.,<br />
condition factor) may be possible and should be pursued if the analysis can be done at<br />
little or no additional cost to the overall program.<br />
Correlations between cohort biomass estimates and indicators of pelagic and<br />
littoral productivity will be examined using univariate and multivariate regression<br />
analysis. The possibility of lagged effects (e.g., productivity in year 1 has a consistent<br />
effect in year 3) will be incorporated into the analysis as well. Assumptions of normality,<br />
linearity and homoscedasticity will be verified prior to all statistical testing and if<br />
necessary appropriate data transformations will be carried out.<br />
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2.3.4 Reporting<br />
Each year, a data report will be prepared to summarise the year’s findings,<br />
including the results of between-year trend analyses that determine whether biomass is<br />
increasing, remaining the same, or decreasing over time. Every second year, fish<br />
species composition and morphometric data collected during the year’s fish survey will<br />
also be presented. Prior to general release, a draft of the data report will be submitted to<br />
the Management Committee for review and comment.<br />
At the conclusion of the monitor a comprehensive report will be prepared from all<br />
of the annual data reports to date that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Like the annual data reports, the Management Committee will review and comment on a<br />
draft of the report prior to its general release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
A strong fish biomass response to a slightly more stable reservoir regime will<br />
suggest a strong casual link between the two parameters. Such a response would<br />
support the notion that littoral zone development in <strong>Stave</strong> Lake is an important<br />
component of fish ecology. It will also create the impetus to seek additional reservoir<br />
stability through operational change or if in conflict with other resource values, it will help<br />
define the scope for alternative mitigation options.<br />
Conversely, a negative response would counter our present understanding of the<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> Lake ecology and more importantly, signify that one or more key limiting factors<br />
are being exasperated by the operation change. Such a response would most likely<br />
trigger new studies to uncover these yet unknown limiting factors and may potentially<br />
lead to changes in the reservoir operation strategy during the next WUP.<br />
Finally, A neutral response would be inconclusive regarding the benefits to<br />
overall fish biomass, but would at least signify that fish populations are not negatively<br />
impacted by the change in operation. Such a result would unlikely impact reservoir<br />
operations unless results of the littoral zone monitor suggest otherwise.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
The fish biomass monitor will begin in year 1 following implementation of the<br />
WUP. Also starting in year 1, but only done every second year, is the fish sampling<br />
needed to help interpret the hydro-acoustic survey data. The monitor will be done<br />
annually until the next WUP review process (10 years). An annual report will be<br />
completed at the end of each year for submission to the Management committee for<br />
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review. At the conclusion of the monitor, a final report will be prepared that summarises<br />
all of the findings since the program’s inception, and will include a discussion of potential<br />
reservoir impacts if WUP operations are to be changed.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total 10-year cost of the fish biomass monitor is estimated to be $254,300 (in<br />
2004 dollars. When adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total program cost is<br />
expected to be closer to $283,700. The annual cost of the program cycles between<br />
$22,600 and $28,200 very two years, following the bi-annual cycle of fish surveys.<br />
Despite this cycling, the average annual cost of the program is just over $25,000, almost<br />
identical the amount reported in the CC report (Failing 1999) and is below the CC report<br />
projection if adjusted to 2004 dollars. A summary breakdown of the labour costs and<br />
expenses involved is provided in Table 3-1.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
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Table 3-1: Estimated costs for the fish biomass monitor. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety planning,<br />
regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 7,000<br />
<strong>Hydro</strong>acoustic Survey Sr. Biologist $ 700 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 21,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 500 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 15,000<br />
Fish survey Sr. Biologist $ 700 3 3 3 3 3 $ 10,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 500 3 3 3 3 3 $ 7,500<br />
Data Entry Technician 1 $ 500 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 10,000<br />
Data Analysis Sr. Biologist $ 700 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 $ 31,500<br />
Reporting Sr. Biologist $ 700 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 $ 14,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 500 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 $ 20,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ 790 $ 575 $ 790 $ 575 $ 790 $ 575 $ 790 $ 575 $ 790 $ 575 $ 6,825<br />
Total Labour $ 16,590 $ 12,075 $ 16,590 $ 12,075 $ 16,590 $ 12,075 $ 16,590 $ 12,075 $ 16,590 $ 12,075 $ 143,325<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 $ 6,750<br />
Boat Rental $ 350 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 6 3 $ 15,750<br />
<strong>Hydro</strong> Accoustic rental $ 8,750 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 87,500<br />
Preport reproduction $ 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Total Expenses $ 11,625 $ 10,575 $ 11,625 $ 10,575 $ 11,625 $ 10,575 $ 11,625 $ 10,575 $ 11,625 $ 10,575 $ 111,000<br />
Program Total $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 28,215 $ 22,650 $ 254,325<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ 28,778 $ 23,564 $ 29,941 $ 24,516 $ 31,151 $ 25,507 $ 32,409 $ 26,537 $ 33,719 $ 27,609 $ 283,731<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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4. Limited Block Load as Deterrent to Spawning<br />
1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
Since 1980, an number of initiatives have been undertaken to improve the<br />
escapement of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> chum downstream of Ruskin Dam, which in recent years has<br />
experienced a 7-fold increase from it’s 1960-1984 average of just 44,000 individuals.<br />
These initiatives included a hatchery release program to supplement smolt outmigration,<br />
a Fraser <strong>River</strong> exploitation reduction program, and a habitat restoration<br />
program, which more than doubled the area of spawning habitat. In addition to these<br />
activities, a flow regime was implemented <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> that restricted the fluctuation of<br />
downstream water levels during the chum spawning and incubation periods (Bailey<br />
2002). The objective of the regime was to minimise the risk of adult and redd stranding.<br />
These restrictions however, were costly as it removed considerable flexibility in plant<br />
operations to match periods of peak power demand.<br />
During the WUP process, an operating strategy was proposed to take advantage<br />
of the initial test digging behaviour and subsequent egg laying patterns of chum salmon<br />
to minimise the risk of redd stranding, and in turn reintroduce some flexibility in power<br />
generation during the spawning and incubation periods. The underlying premise of the<br />
strategy was to maintain a relatively high base water level during the spawning and<br />
incubation periods such that most of the available spawning habitat was continuously<br />
usable and relatively free from the risk of future stranding during the incubation period.<br />
Hydraulic simulation modelling found that a constant release of 100 m 3 s -1 was sufficient<br />
for this purpose as it allowed most of the spawning habitat to be underwater by at least<br />
10 cm and was sustainable during the spawning and incubation periods in most years.<br />
Above the 100 m 3 s -1 base release, all restrictions to generation were removed, allowing<br />
plant releases to vary as needed to meet power demands and manage the reservoirs.<br />
Because of the contoured banks of the river, the CC accepted the notion that such<br />
variable flows would not severely impact the spawning population. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> hydraulic<br />
modelling showed that the vast majority of the spawning habitat was located below the<br />
100 m 3 s -1 watermark, and field observations indicated that the variability in velocities<br />
would be within tolerance limits of the population. In fact, the CC adopted the view that<br />
variability in flows above 100 m 3 s -1 would in the long run be beneficial to fish production,<br />
the rationale being that pulsed flows would deter chum salmon from spawning in habitats<br />
that are susceptible to dewatering during incubation (Failing 1999). It was believed that<br />
this deterrence effect was achieved by disrupting the spawning process during its initial<br />
test-digging phase. Because chum lay their eggs in ‘batches’ over a period of several<br />
days, even if egg-laying had started, only a fraction of the brood would be impacted.<br />
Studies that support this assertion that peaking flows (in this case flows between<br />
100 m 3 s -1 and 325 m 3 s -1 for periods of 4 or more hours) deter spawning is limited. Only<br />
three publications were found, two of which were carried out on the Columbia <strong>River</strong><br />
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(Bauersfeld 1978, and Chapman et al. 1986), and the other in New Zealand (Hawke<br />
1978). These studies however, were only concerned with Chinook salmon. Whether<br />
these results could be extended to other pacific salmonids was unknown. For WUP<br />
purposes however, it was assumed that this was the case and the concept of ‘partial<br />
peaking’ was adopted as part of the Combo 6 WUP operating strategy recommended by<br />
the CC, provided that a monitor was carried out to verify results.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
The key management question addressed by this monitor is whether the limited<br />
block loading strategy adopted in the WUP is as successful in minimising redd stranding<br />
as was the pre-WUP ‘full’ block loading strategy. Given that the escapement of chum to<br />
the <strong>Stave</strong> system appears to have reached full capacity (Baily 2002), an increase in<br />
average escapement is not expected, largely because of the limiting effects of redd<br />
super-imposition. As a result, a more likely indicator of success would be that average<br />
escapement does not drop over time.<br />
If successful, the question then arises as to whether the range of partial peaking<br />
can be extended by lowering the base flow from the 100 m 3 s -1 without impacting<br />
reproductive success (measured here in terms of escapement). Increasing the range of<br />
daily flow fluctuation would increase operational flexibility and thus potentially increase<br />
power revenue. Conversely, if the trial is found to negatively impact escapement<br />
numbers, the question would be whether the concept of limited block loading should be<br />
continued, or whether some modification should be made to lessen the impact, such as<br />
impose an upper boundary to the daily fluctuations. Though the present monitor is not<br />
necessarily designed to answer these questions, data should be collected in such a<br />
manner that it would give insight during the next WUP process.<br />
Success should not be solely defined by changes in escapement numbers.<br />
There are risks associated with daily fluctuations in water level, and one of the most<br />
important is the loss or persistent relocation of quality spawning habitat. With changes<br />
in flow come changes in local water depth and velocity. Though chum salmon are<br />
capable of spawning over a wide range of depths and velocities (particularly in crowded<br />
conditions), there are limits to what they can tolerate and they will avoid unsuitable<br />
hydraulic conditions if they persist. In considering the limited block load strategy, the CC<br />
assumed that within the range of daily fluctuation, hydraulic conditions in mid-channel<br />
spawning grounds and key gravel bars would remain within tolerance limits. This<br />
however, must be verified, as it was based primarily on anecdotal information. If found<br />
not to be the case, the expected benefits for spawning chum salmon may not be fully<br />
realised. In fact, if the impact is severe, it may affect the spawning capacity of the reach.<br />
Conversely, if the quality and quantity of spawning habitat is found to be stable over the<br />
range of flows, it may be beneficial for future WUPs to explore spawning habitat quality<br />
and quantity at lower flows. As alluded to above, this will provide the information needed<br />
to explore opportunities to expand the range of daily flow fluctuation.<br />
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It should be noted that there are two other risks associated with daily flow<br />
fluctuations. The first of these is that the limited daily flow fluctuations could potentially<br />
strand adult fish that have yet to spawn and the other is that partial block loading could<br />
strand early emergent fry during the latter part of the incubation period. Both of these<br />
issues are beyond the scope of the present study and are dealt separately in monitors 5<br />
and 6.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
The management questions above lead to the following set of null hypotheses<br />
that can be grouped into two categories; those that deal with aspects associated with a<br />
successful deterrence response in areas with stranding risk, and those that pertain to the<br />
availability and persistence of spawning habitat in non-stranding areas. Collectively,<br />
these hypotheses form a means of testing the success of the limited block loading<br />
strategy through a weight of evidence approach. In the first group, the null hypotheses<br />
are;<br />
H01: Redd density above the 100 m 3 s -1 watermark is the same or greater than below<br />
the 100 m 3 s -1 watermark.<br />
This is a one-tailed test of the redd density hypothesis that requires several years<br />
of data and will take into account annual variability in escapement.<br />
H02: Over several years of testing, there is no correlation between the average<br />
discharge during the spawning period and redd density above the 100 m 3 s -1<br />
watermark.<br />
The ability to cycle water flows during the spawning period will depend on the<br />
hydrology of the system, which can vary considerably form year to year. During<br />
low water years, the ability to cycle flows, or even maintain a 100 m 3 s -1 base, flow<br />
may be limited. The ability to cycle flows may also be limited during high water<br />
years. In moderate water years, the duration of daily high flow periods may vary<br />
considerably from day to day. All of the hydrological condition will be reflected in<br />
the measures of average discharge during the spawning period. This variability<br />
in the duration of daily high flows will have an impact on the ability of the limited<br />
block load strategy to deter spawning activity and provides a unique opportunity<br />
to test its effectiveness from year to year.<br />
H03: The average size of each redd above the 100 m 3 s -1 watermark is the same or<br />
greater than below the 100 m 3 s -1 watermark.<br />
This a one-tailed test of the redd size hypothesis which takes into account that<br />
redds excavated because of test digging would be smaller than those where egg<br />
pockets have been deposited.<br />
H04: Redds located above the 100 m 3 s -1 watermark increase in size over successive<br />
daily cycles in water level.<br />
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Because redd size tends to increase with the number of egg pockets, evidence of<br />
increased redd size over time would suggest that it is being revisited during<br />
successive periods of high flow. The issue of whether it is the same female that<br />
revisits the redd will not be studied in this monitor, though anecdotal observations<br />
will be noted as they arise.<br />
H05: The likelihood that a given redd contains eggs does not increase with redd size<br />
In order to successfully test H03 and H04, a relationship between the likelihood<br />
that a redd contains eggs and its size must be demonstrated. If such a<br />
relationship cannot be shown, then H03 and H04 will have to be restated in terms<br />
of actual egg observations and the inference based on redd size will have to be<br />
abandoned. Each redd will have to be sampled for the presence of egg pockets,<br />
which will increase the cost of the program as well as worsen the chances for<br />
incubation success.<br />
It should be noted that H01 and H02 are alternative tests of the ‘redd density’<br />
hypothesis to account for the possibility that between year variability in hydrology, and<br />
hence variability in the ability for the limited block loading strategy to deter spawning,<br />
may be large. If between year variability is low, then H01 will be a more robust test of the<br />
hypothesis. If variability is high, then H02 will be the better test.<br />
The second group of hypotheses pertains to the availability and persistence of<br />
spawning habitat in non-stranding areas over the 100 to 325 m 3 s -1 range of fluctuating<br />
flows:<br />
H06: Spawning pairs that have begun to excavate redds remain at that location for the<br />
duration of their reproductive cycle, which may last for several water level cycles.<br />
This test will be carried out on data collected throughout the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong><br />
spawning ground and will not be restricted to a specific site.<br />
H07: Local water depth and velocity measurements over spawning substrate remain<br />
within the range of spawning chum salmon tolerances as flows fluctuate between<br />
100 m 3 s -1 and 325 m 3 s -1 .<br />
The final two hypotheses are a general test of the partial block loading strategy in<br />
terms of its success on sustaining or possibly improving annual escapements of chum<br />
salmon. The null hypotheses can be stated as follows:<br />
H08: Chum escapement does not change following introduction of the partial block<br />
loading strategy during the spawning period.<br />
This is a direct test of the limited block load strategy’s impact on escapement.<br />
Escapement data however, tends to be highly variable from year to year (Bailey<br />
2003) and as a result, test of this hypothesis is likely to have very low power. It<br />
will only respond to dramatic changes in escapement, and cannot be relied upon<br />
on its own as an assessment of the operating strategy’s value<br />
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H09: Chum escapement is not correlated with corresponding redd stranding risk<br />
performance measure values.<br />
The redd stranding risk performance measure (PM) was developed during the<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> WUP process as a means of tracking the risk of redd stranding for each<br />
year of operation and hence, tracks the downstream effects of limited block<br />
loading. Linking the PM to escapement provides a means of assessing the<br />
importance redd stranding relative to other factors that affect escapement. As<br />
discussed in Section 1.1, many of these factors have been the subject of several<br />
enhancement initiatives, the results of which are likely to remain unchanged for<br />
the near future. Having controlled for these confounding factors, test of this<br />
hypothesis is likely to be reasonably robust (though not necessarily powerful),<br />
and hence provides another direct test of the limited block loading strategy.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
The key water use decision linked to this monitor is whether to continue with the<br />
limited block loading strategy, modify it, or to abandon it if found to be detrimental to<br />
spawning success. The limited block loading strategy has never been applied in <strong>BC</strong>,<br />
and only in a few circumstances throughout the Pacific Northwest. Its success has yet<br />
to be tested. If found successful, the operation can continue on the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> system,<br />
and perhaps be expanded if found not to impact the availability of stable, high quality<br />
spawning habitat. Conversely, if the monitor finds that the reproductive success of chum<br />
salmon has been negatively impacted, then the strategy will have to be modified if<br />
possible or abandoned all together if the impact is deemed too great.<br />
The concept of limited block loading has been considered for use at other<br />
facilities as a means of improving both power revenue and habitat capacity for spawning<br />
salmonids. However, because the strategy remains untested, few of the WUPs<br />
completed to date have adopted it to its fullest potential. If found successful, the concept<br />
of limited block loading could be exported to other WUPs in the future to the benefit of all<br />
stakeholders.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area is restricted to the 1.5 km section of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> located<br />
immediately downstream of Ruskin Dam.<br />
b) Data collection is to occur during the chum-spawning period, which is likely to be<br />
from October 15 to November 30.<br />
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c) Depending on the component of the monitor, data is to be collected throughout<br />
the study area, or within a clearly defined study site (one of the braided channels)<br />
that is accessible at all flows and has a 200 m minimum channel length.<br />
d) The limited block loading monitor is to be completed in a single chum-spawning<br />
season, though escapement will be monitored for the next ten years.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The fall limited block loading monitor will be carried out in three parts, each<br />
corresponding to the data needs of each suite of hypotheses listed in section 1.3, and<br />
are to be run concurrently during the October 15 to November 30 chum spawning<br />
period. The first part of the monitor is concerned with the distribution of redds and their<br />
state of construction as they pertain to hypotheses H01 to H05. It will consist of weekly<br />
redd counts above and below the 100 m 3 s -1 waterline mark of the study site and a daily<br />
monitor of redd construction above the 100 m 3 s -1 waterline mark. The second part of the<br />
monitor will consist of a hydraulic modelling exercise to quantify the area of unsuitable<br />
depths and velocities as flow ranges from 100 m 3 s -1 to maximum turbine discharge.<br />
Data from this part of the monitor will be used to test hypotheses H06 and H07 and will<br />
pertain to the entire study area. The last part of the monitor will collate the annual<br />
escapement data collected by DFO and test hypotheses H08 and H09. As stated above,<br />
all data collection is to be completed within one spawning season, though escapement<br />
monitoring is continue 10 years till the next WUP review period.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field methods<br />
Redd Counts<br />
Weekly redd counts will be carried out by a three person crew during periods of<br />
low flow. The counts will be done within a designated study site by direct observation,<br />
which may involve snorkel surveys. A redd will be defined as a disturbed area in the<br />
gravel where dark-coloured algae has been removed by digging activity and may also be<br />
distinguished by the presence of a mound and a downstream tailspill area. Counting will<br />
be easiest during the early part of the monitor, but will become increasingly difficult as<br />
redd superimposition becomes more frequent. This is a highly likely occurrence in the<br />
<strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> as escapement has exceeded theoretical spawning capability in recent<br />
years (Baily 2003). It may be necessary to abandon the redd counts when the ability to<br />
distinguish individual redds becomes too difficult.<br />
For analytical purposes, redd counts will be classified as either being above or<br />
below the 100 m 3 s -1 waterline mark.<br />
Redd Construction<br />
During each day of the spawning period that experiences a drop in discharge to<br />
the base level of 100 m 3 s -1 , a three-person crew will carry out a shoreline survey of pre-<br />
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designated study sites to document the presence of new redds. Each new redd will be<br />
marked by a numbered rock or metal stake at the downstream end of the tailspill. A<br />
plywood protractor (a 50 cm diameter half disk calibrated in 5 degree increments) will<br />
then placed at the marker and used to measure the areal extent of the redd by<br />
measuring the distance and angle at a minimum of 8 points around its circumference.<br />
Measurements of redd size will be repeated daily for a minimum of two weeks as per<br />
Chapman et al. (1986). Redds increasing in size will be assumed to have been<br />
revisited between periods of low flow. However, it will be impossible to determine<br />
whether it was the same pair.<br />
During the early part of the monitor, all redds encountered would be subject to<br />
daily measurements. As the number of redds increase however, only a subset of redds<br />
will be tracked on a daily basis. The number of redds sampled per day will be limited to<br />
the capability of the crew.<br />
Once per week, redds will be sampled for the presence of eggs. Sampling will<br />
be done by small shovel as per Bauersfeld (1978). Redds will be dug until eggs are<br />
encountered, or a sufficient portion of the redd has been excavated to convince the<br />
observer that there are no eggs present. Redds that have been sampled for the<br />
presence of eggs will no longer be subject to daily measurement.<br />
Hydraulic Modelling<br />
A 2 dimensional, finite element hydraulic model of the study area will be<br />
developed from existing topographical data and calibrated using in situ survey data.<br />
Additional survey data will be collected as needed by a two-person crew for a maximum<br />
of 5 days and will consist of depth, velocity and substrate measurements, as well as<br />
UTM co-ordinates for each survey point. Each day of survey will be dedicated to a<br />
different turbine discharge from Ruskin Dam. The distribution of survey points will be at<br />
the discretion of the model developer and will be focused on model calibration and the<br />
resolution of modelling errors. Most of this data can be collected while wadding in the<br />
mainstem during periods of low turbine release and low tide. UTM co-ordinates will be<br />
gathered using standard survey techniques and local survey monuments.<br />
Escapement Counts<br />
Escapement counts will be collated from the data collected by Department of<br />
Fisheries and Oceans crews during their annual escapement surveys of the lower <strong>Stave</strong><br />
<strong>River</strong>.<br />
2.3.2 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Because some sampling is likely occur at night<br />
during winter, a temporary heated shelter/hut will have to be installed within easy reach<br />
of the study site to prevent hypothermia and crew fatigue, both of which are safety<br />
concerns and may potentially impact the quality of data collected. A permanent<br />
presence at the site will also be needed to prevent vandalism during the study. Because<br />
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the shelter will be located downstream of the dam, a formal communication protocol will<br />
have to be established with facility operators to warn of operational changes or if<br />
necessary, arrange for evacuation. Finally, an evacuation route will have to be<br />
developed and maintained to ensure that crews are not trapped at the site regardless of<br />
flow conditions.<br />
Depending on the level of crew fatigue, it may be necessary to rotate crews on a<br />
regular basis, particularly if the intensity and duration of survey if very high. This will<br />
ensure crew safety as well as a quality data collection.<br />
2.3.3 Data Analysis<br />
All data will be entered into a common database for storage and subsequent<br />
analysis. With respect to the redd count and redd construction data, hypothesis testing<br />
will rely primarily on parametric statistics such as t-tests, analysis of variance, and Chi<br />
Square analyses as the data type and number of factors dictate. Assumptions of<br />
independence, randomness and normality will be assessed prior to all analyses and<br />
appropriate data transformations will be carried out as necessary to ensure compliance.<br />
The hydraulic simulation model will be developed using the <strong>River</strong> 2D software<br />
package and will adopt standard calibration techniques (Stefler and Blackburn 2002),<br />
including a provision to account for tidal influences on the Fraser <strong>River</strong>. All survey data<br />
will be collected as per <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> standards for this application (see Leake 2004).<br />
Comparison of simulation results for model runs at different turbine releases will be<br />
deterministic in nature, and will include comparisons of those habitats that are lost due to<br />
excessive velocities. Depth and velocity avoidance criterion will be obtained form the<br />
published literature, as well as from data and observations collected during the WUP<br />
process through out <strong>BC</strong>. Final determination of these velocity criteria will be vetted by<br />
the Management Committee in consultation with knowledgeable experts.<br />
Escapement data will be analysed using trend analysis in order to assess the<br />
likelihood that escapement has increased, remained the same, or has declined since<br />
inception of WUP operations. The type of analysis used will depend on the nature of the<br />
data.<br />
2.3.4 Reporting<br />
At the conclusion of the limited block loading monitor, a draft report will be<br />
prepared for submission to the Management Committee that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Once reviewed by Management Committee, a final report will be prepared for general<br />
release.<br />
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2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
Results of this monitor will have significant impact on the direction of future<br />
WUPs in the watershed. The operational flexibility needed to meet peak power<br />
demands is generally at odds with the need for stable flows during salmonid spawning<br />
and incubation periods to maximise smolt output. The limited block load strategy was<br />
proposed during the WUP as a means of allowing both values to be met simultaneously<br />
at relatively low cost to either value. If results of the hypothesis test validate this<br />
approach, it may be adopted at other facilities where similar conflicts in value occur. A<br />
successful result could also lead to questions of whether the strategy could be better<br />
optimised by exploring various alternative flow treatment strategies. The information<br />
collected in this monitor would allow such explorations to be done by simulation models<br />
at the time of the next WUP process.<br />
If the pattern of hypothesis test results do not support continuation of the limited<br />
block loading strategy, sufficient data will have been collected during the monitor to<br />
explore and model alternative strategies to correct for perceived deficiencies. If these<br />
simulation exercises prove fruitless, the strategy can then be abandoned and the pre-<br />
WUP block loading strategy can be reinstated. This decision however will be subject of<br />
the next WUP.<br />
The hydraulic modelling exercise will provide important insight in terms of the<br />
potential loss of spawning habitat dues to the daily changes in flow. The model will be<br />
able to highlight the extent to which such changes occur, but more importantly, it will<br />
identify their location. This will provide resource managers with the information needed<br />
to re-sculpt channel shape and improve the velocity/depth response. The opportunity for<br />
such mitigative actions has been highlighted in the WUP and its implementation would<br />
likely preserve the value of the strategy at the least long-term cost. The decision to<br />
implement such physical changes to the channel lie with the management committee<br />
and can be started at any time prior to the next WUP process.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
Project logistics and data collection is to begin in the fall (October) of year 1 after<br />
implementation of the WUP. The data analysis, hypothesis testing, modelling and<br />
project reporting are to be completed by the end of year 2. Escapement analysis will<br />
continue annually till the next WUP review period in approximately 10 years<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total 10-year cost of the limited block load monitor is estimated to be<br />
$87,500 (in 2004 dollars). When adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total program<br />
cost is expected to be closer to $92,250. The majority of the work will be done in the<br />
first two years of the program. The first year will be dedicated to collecting data in the<br />
field at a 2004 cost of $44,400 while the second year will be spent completing the data<br />
analysis, modelling and reporting tasks at a cost of $21,400. Both of these costs include<br />
those associated with escapement analysis component, which is to continue until the<br />
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end of the monitoring period at an annual cost of $2,750. A summary breakdown of the<br />
labour costs and expenses involved is provided in Table 4-1.<br />
It should be noted that the total cost estimate first two years of the monitor<br />
exceeds that presented in the CC report (Failing 1999) by almost 50%, much more than<br />
that which can be accounted for by adjusting costs to 2004 dollars. This difference in<br />
cost is the result of several changes to the program, mainly:<br />
a) the addition of another crew member for safety reasons,<br />
b) the use of an onsite temporary shelter – again for safety reasons, and<br />
c) an increase in the cost of developing a hydraulic model of the system which<br />
assumed the existence of adequate digital topographical data and turned out not<br />
to be the case.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Bailey, D.D. 2002. Rebuilding the salmon runs to the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong>: A co-operative effort<br />
of harvest reduction, enhancement, habitat restoration and flow control.<br />
American Fisheries Society: International Congress on the Biology of Fish,<br />
Vancouver Can. 2002. p 43 - 51.<br />
Bauersfeld, K. 1978. The effect of daily flow fluctuations on spawning chinook in the<br />
Columbia <strong>River</strong>. Washington Department of Fisheries Technical Report 38.<br />
Chapman, , D.W., D.E. Weitkamp, T.L. Welsh, M.B. Dell, and T.H. Schadt. 1986.<br />
Effects of river flow on the distribution of chinook salmon redds. Transactions of<br />
the American Fisheries Society. 115(4) 537-547.<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
Hawke, S.P. 1978. Stranded redds and quinnat salmon in the Mathias <strong>River</strong>, South<br />
Island, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research<br />
12:167-171.<br />
Leake, A. 2004. Campbell <strong>River</strong> Flow-habitat Modelling with <strong>River</strong> 2D. <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong><br />
<strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> Technical Note WUP-JHT-TN-F03. 15 pp.<br />
Stefler, P. and J. Blackburn. 2002. Introduction to depth averaged modelling and user’s<br />
manual. University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB.<br />
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Table 4-1: Estimated costs for the Limited block loading monitor. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety planning,<br />
regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700 2 $ 1,400<br />
Sampling Design Senior Biologist $ 700 2 $ 1,400<br />
Redd Counts Project Biologist $ 500 10 $ 5,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300 10 $ 3,000<br />
Technician 2 $ 300 10 $ 3,000<br />
Redd Construction Project Biologist $ 500 14 $ 7,000<br />
(10d overlap with redd counts)Technician 1 $ 300 14 $ 4,200<br />
Technician 2 $ 300 14 $ 4,200<br />
Channel survey Surveyor $ 500 5 $ 2,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300 5 $ 1,500<br />
Escapement<br />
Technician 1 $ 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 5,000<br />
Data D Entry Project Biologist $ 500<br />
1 $ 500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
2 $ 600<br />
Model Development Analyst $ 700<br />
5 $ 3,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
7 $ 2,100<br />
Data Analysis Analyst $ 700<br />
2 $ 1,400<br />
Project Biologist $ 500<br />
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 6,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
4 $ 1,200<br />
Reporting Senior Biologist $ 700<br />
2 $ 1,400<br />
Project Biologist $ 500<br />
7 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 15,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
10 $ 3,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ 1,685 $ 1,010 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 125 $ 3,695<br />
Total Labor $ 35,385 $ 21,210 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 2,625 $ 77,595<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Drysuit/Snorkel Gear $ 45 48 $ 2,160<br />
Meals $ 45 72 $ 3,240<br />
Temporary shelter $ 75 24 $ 1,800<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45 4000 $ 1,800<br />
Report reproduction $ 100<br />
2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Total Expenses $ 9,000 $ 200 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 100 $ 10,000<br />
Program Total $ 44,385 $ 21,410 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 2,725 $ 87,595<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ 45,272 $ 22,274 $ 2,891 $ 2,949 $ 3,008 $ 3,068 $ 3,129 $ 3,192 $ 3,256 $ 3,321 $ 92,358<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
5. Risk of Adult Standing<br />
The limited block loading operating strategy adopted in the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> is implemented in two separate seasons, the first of which is the October 15 to<br />
November 30 period defined as the fall limited block loading period (Failing 1999). The<br />
objective behind using this operating strategy in the fall was to limit the stranding of<br />
chum salmon redds by deterring spawning activity in shoreline areas that lie above the<br />
100 m 3 s -1 water level. The underlying premise of this strategy is that daily flow variations<br />
between 100 m 3 s -1 and 325 m 3 s -1 (maximum turbine release), done to match peaking<br />
power demands, disrupt redd excavation such that it forces most spawners into midchannel<br />
areas to complete their spawning activity. <strong>Use</strong> of this strategy however,<br />
assumes that gravid spawners do not remain at their initial redd locations and therefore<br />
put themselves at risk of stranding when water levels recede from 325 m 3 s -1 to 100 m 3 s -<br />
1 . The validity of this assumption however, was not certain and prompted the CC to<br />
recommend a monitor to assess the risk of adult stranding during periods of limited block<br />
loading.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
The success of the limited block loading strategy as a means of improving<br />
operational flexibly without negatively impacting spawning success hinges on a number<br />
of factors, one of which is that it does not result in the stranding of unspawned females.<br />
Significant stranding of gravid spawners could result in considerable egg loss and offset<br />
the potential reproductive gains of the strategy. Low stranding rates of gravid or partially<br />
spawned out females would validate a key assumption of the limited block loading<br />
strategy and thus allow its continued use. If significant stranding of these fish occurs,<br />
the strategy may have to be modified if possible or be abandoned if the impact is<br />
deemed too great. The level of stranding that distinguishes biologically significant<br />
versus non-significant impact is to be determined by Management Committee in<br />
consultation with knowledgeable experts. The management questions are:<br />
a) What is the rate of gravid chum salmon spawning during the limited block loading<br />
operations?<br />
b) Is the level of stranding biologically important?<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
This monitor is designed to test only one null hypothesis:<br />
H01: The proportion of all stranded chum salmon that are gravid or only partially<br />
spawned out is less than a threshold value deemed to indicate significant egg<br />
loss.<br />
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To successfully test this hypothesis, the Management Committee, in consultation<br />
with knowledgeable experts, will have to define the threshold level of stranding<br />
that distinguishes biologically significant versus non-significant egg loss. The<br />
management committee will also have to define the gonadal egg densities in<br />
stranded females that distinguishes gravid, partially spawned out, and spawn out<br />
individuals.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
Continuation of the limited block loading strategy during the October 15 to<br />
November 30 fall spawning period will depend on the outcome of this monitor as is tests<br />
one of the key assumptions of its effect on chum reproductive success. If the strategy is<br />
found to cause significant egg loss through stranding of gravid or partially spawned out<br />
females, it will either have to be abandoned or modified at the cost of lost operational<br />
flexibility.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area is restricted to the 500m section of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> located<br />
immediately downstream of Ruskin Dam.<br />
b) Data collection should occur during the chum spawning period, which is likely to<br />
be within the October 15 to November 30 timeframe.<br />
c) Stranding assessments are to be once weekly at low tide and if possible, during<br />
periods of low flow to maximise carcass recovery.<br />
d) The adult stranding monitor is to span only one chum-spawning season, unless<br />
hydrological conditions are such that the hypothesis cannot be tested (e.g., too<br />
few peaking events occurred during the spawning period). Un such cases, the<br />
study may have to be suspended till the next year.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
Adult stranding monitor will follow the methods of Chapman et al. (1986) where<br />
weekly carcass counts are done over the course of the spawning period. Implicit with<br />
this methodology is the assumption that all chum stranding is the result of peaking<br />
operations. Female carcasses that are found to be unspawned or partially spawned are<br />
assumed to have been stranded because of their persistence to remain on their redd<br />
despite dropping water levels. Spent female carcasses found on shore are assumed to<br />
have passively washed up there because of water currents while river flows are high.<br />
On most days, this assumption is likely valid as the variability in flows within the study<br />
area is governed primarily by turbine releases. However, ther are exceptions which i<br />
include periods of spill to manage reservoir elevations or when there is a backwater<br />
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effect due to high Fraser <strong>River</strong> water levels. The cause of stranding will have to be<br />
carefully tracked in order to ensure that the stranding test is the consequence of peaking<br />
operations.<br />
The general approach to the monitor will be to compare the number of<br />
unspawned and partially spawn female carcasses to the total number of female<br />
carcasses over time and to assess whether it is above a threshold level deemed to be<br />
‘harmful to the population. Definition of this threshold level will have to be set by the<br />
Management Committee in consultation with knowledgeable experts.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field methods<br />
A two-person crew will carry out the weekly chum carcass counts. The counts<br />
will be done at pre-assigned locations throughout the study area, sampling both shallow<br />
and steep shoreline habitats for a total shoreline length that is not to exceed 0.5 km. All<br />
carcasses will be counted and sexed. Female fish will be classified as being spawnedout<br />
(containing less than 300 eggs) or partially spawned out (containing more than 300<br />
eggs). Female carcasses that retain the majority of eggs will be classified as being<br />
unspawned. An estimate of remaining eggs will be noted for all partially spawned out<br />
fish. All carcasses will be chopped in two to prevent recounting in future surveys.<br />
2.3.2 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines.<br />
2.3.3 Data Analysis<br />
Incidence of female adult stranding will be reported as the number of unspawned<br />
and partially spawned out carcasses relative to the total female carcass count. It is<br />
assumed that unspawned and partially spawned-out females are equally likely to<br />
become stranded. Weekly estimates of unspawned or partially spawned female<br />
stranding rate will be correlated to the previous week’s hydrology to determine whether<br />
stranding is directly linked to operations. If found to be linked to peaking operations, the<br />
ratio of unspawned and partially spawned carcasses will then be compared to the<br />
threshold level ratio to determine whether it biologically significant. Where possible,<br />
appropriate statistical tests will be carried out, provided that estimates of sampling error<br />
are possible given the nature of the data.<br />
The criterion that defines biologically significant versus non-significant female<br />
adult stranding is to be set by the Management Committee in consultation with<br />
knowledgeable experts.<br />
2.3.4 Reporting<br />
At the conclusion of the adult standing monitor, a draft report will be prepared for<br />
submission to the Management Committee that:<br />
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a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Once reviewed by Management Committee, a final report will be prepared for general<br />
release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
The intent of this monitor is to verify the assumption made by the CC that adult<br />
stranding has not increased by implementing the fall limited block loading operation. Of<br />
principle concern is the stranding of gravid females, which if significant can result in<br />
considerable egg loss. However, because there is no pre-WUP data available, a pre-<br />
WUP comparison is not possible. Whether the observed rate of adult stranding is<br />
significant will have to be determined by the Management Committee in consultation<br />
with knowledgeable experts.<br />
If deemed significant, the fall limited block loading strategy may have to be<br />
modified to minimise the impact or abandoned if no other alternative is possible.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
This monitor will be started in year 2 after implementation of the WUP and is to<br />
be completed within 1 year after all data has been collected. If hydrological conditions<br />
are such that peaking operations are rare, then the study will be postponed and<br />
restarted in the following year.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the adult stranding monitor is estimated at $20,100. The cost<br />
estimate is based on 2004 dollars. When adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total<br />
program cost is expected to be closer to $20,900. A summary of the labour costs and<br />
expenses is provided in Table 5-1. It should be noted that this estimate is almost half of<br />
that presented in the CC report (Failing 1998). The cost difference is the result of a<br />
change in sampling methodology to one that is less intensive, but found to be effective in<br />
other similar studies (Bauersfeld 1978, and Chapman et al. 1986).<br />
2.7 References<br />
Bailey, D.D. 2002. Rebuilding the salmon runs to the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong>: A co-operative effort<br />
of harvest reduction, enhancement, habitat restoration and flow control.<br />
American Fisheries Society: International Congress on the Biology of Fish,<br />
Vancouver Can. 2002. p 43 - 51.<br />
Bauersfeld, K. 1978. The effect of daily flow fluctuations on spawning chinook in the<br />
Columbia <strong>River</strong>. Washington Department of Fisheries Technical Report 38.<br />
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Chapman, , D.W., D.E. Weitkamp, T.L. Welsh, M.B. Dell, and T.H. Schadt. 1986.<br />
Effects of river flow on the distribution of chinook salmon redds. Transactions of<br />
the American Fisheries Society. 115(4) 537-547.<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
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Table 5-1: Estimated costs for the adult stranding monitoring program. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety<br />
planning, regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700<br />
2 $ 1,400<br />
Sampling Design Project Biologist $ 500<br />
1 $ 500<br />
Field Data Collection Project Biologist $ 500<br />
12 $ 6,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 200<br />
12 $ 2,400<br />
Data Entry Technician 1 $ 300<br />
1 $ 300<br />
Data Analysis Project Biologist $ 500<br />
2 $ 1,000<br />
Reporting Project Biologist $ 500<br />
3 $ 1,500<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
6 $ 1,800<br />
Contingency 5% $ - $ 745 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 745<br />
Total Labor $ - $ 15,645 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 15,645<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45<br />
3000 $ 1,350<br />
Boat Rental $ 250<br />
12 $ 3,000<br />
Report reproduction $ 100<br />
1 $ 100<br />
Total Expenses $ - $ 4,450 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 4,450<br />
Program Total $ - $ 20,095 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 20,095<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ - $ 20,906 -$ 1 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 20,905<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
6. Risk of Fry Stranding<br />
The limited block loading operating strategy adopted in the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong><br />
<strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong> is used on two separate occasions, one of which is during the February 15 to<br />
May 15 period defined as the spring limited block loading period. The objective behind<br />
using this operating strategy was to limit the stranding of emerging fry by providing a<br />
100 m 3 s -1 base flow to ensure that all eggs are watered during the post eyed stages of<br />
development, yet provide some operational flexibility to meet peak power demands.<br />
Each day, flows are allowed to cycle up to 325 m 3 s -1 , the maximum turbine discharge<br />
and then back down to the 100 m 3 s -1 base level. This drop back to base flows, however,<br />
can create conditions that lead to the stranding of newly emergent chum fry where the<br />
rate of stranding tends is proportional to the rate of emergence.<br />
The fact that some stranding would occur during the spring block loading period<br />
was deemed to be an acceptable consequence of the strategy by the consultative<br />
committee (CC), provided that it not exceed 1.5% of the total emergent fry population.<br />
This threshold for what has been defined as an acceptable level of stranding was<br />
derived from stranding assessments carried out in 1997 and 1998 (Leake and MacLean<br />
1998). These estimates of stranding mortality were based on operations prior to the<br />
implementation of the WUP. Stranding mortality under WUP conditions could not be<br />
predicted at the time of its development, but for purposes of proceeding with the WUP<br />
process, was assumed to be less than the accepted threshold level. This assumption<br />
was based on the general perception that post WUP flow conditions during emergence<br />
would generally be better than the pre-WUP state. There was however, some<br />
uncertainty as to whether this was indeed the case. As a result, the CC recommended<br />
that the 1997 and 1998 assessments be repeated as a monitor to ensure that stranding<br />
mortality had not increased beyond the accepted 1.5% of total fry emergence.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
The success of the limited block loading strategy as a means of improving<br />
operational flexibly without negatively impacting salmonid reproductive success hinges<br />
on a number of factors, one of which is that it does not result in the stranding of<br />
emergent fry. Significant fry stranding, here defined as stranding mortality that exceeds<br />
1.5% of the total chum fry population as calculated by Leake and MacLean (1998), was<br />
judged by the CC to have an unacceptable impact on chum escapement (Failing 1999).<br />
The acceptance of a spring, limited block loading period in the WUP by the CC was<br />
contingent on a condition that stranding mortality is less than 1.5% of the total chum fry<br />
population. During the WUP process, this was assumed to be the case. The<br />
management question being addressed here is whether this assumption was valid. If<br />
not, then the spring limited block loading period may have to be modified to minimise the<br />
impact, or abandoned if modifications are not possible.<br />
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1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
This monitor is designed to test only one null hypothesis:<br />
H01: The proportion of stranded chum fry relative to the total population of fry, as<br />
calculated by Leake and MacLean (1998), has not changed from the pre-WUP<br />
level of 1.5%.<br />
This is a one tailed test of the hypothesis. To test this hypothesis on a<br />
comparable footing, the methodology used by Leake and MacLean (1998) will<br />
have to be repeated as it was used to collect the data that formed the basis for<br />
the stranding mortality threshold.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
Continuation of the limited block loading strategy during the February 15 to May<br />
15 (spring) fry emergence period will depend on the outcome of this monitor as is tests<br />
one of the key assumptions of it’s effect on chum reproductive success. If the strategy is<br />
found to cause significant stranding mortality, it will either have to be abandoned or<br />
modified at the cost of lost operational flexibility.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area is restricted to the 1.5 km section of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> located<br />
immediately downstream of Ruskin Dam.<br />
b) Data collection should occur during the fry emergence period, which is likely to<br />
be within the February 15 to May 15 timeframe.<br />
c) Stranding assessments are to be schedule to coincide with low tide<br />
d) The fry-stranding monitor is to be carried out annually for 2 years unless<br />
otherwise directed by the Management Committee.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The general approach to this monitor will be to repeat those parts of the Leake<br />
and MacLean (1998) stranding survey so as to obtain comparable estimates of total fry<br />
strandiing. In their study, fry stranding rates were estimated using a quadrant sampling<br />
procedure on a subset of rampdown events where turbine releases were dropped from<br />
their daily high values to some prescribed base flow. Both day and night time surveys<br />
were carried out to account for possible diel trends. Results of these surveys were then<br />
used in a series of calculations to estimate the number of stranded fry based on<br />
estimates of total dewatered area and the prevailing daily fry population size. The total<br />
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number of stranded fry was then compared to the year’s estimate of total fry population<br />
size based on the year’s escapement.<br />
The stranding survey is to be repeated annually, the results of which are to be<br />
compared to the level of acceptable fry stranding set by the CC (1.5%). These annual<br />
assessments will over time lead to a probability distribution of relative annual stranding<br />
rates such that exceedence probabilities can be investigated (i.e., the likelihood that total<br />
fry stranding exceeds a certain value).<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field Methods<br />
As per the Leake and MacLean (1998) study, the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> system will be<br />
divided into four sections, each of which is assigned a set of sampling quadrant<br />
locations. Prior to each survey, a four-person crew will be assigned to each section and<br />
given three, randomly chosen quadrants to sample. The selection of quadrants will be<br />
was such that none are sampled more than once.<br />
Prior to each rampdown event, the crews will be sent out to mark the prevailing<br />
water level at each of the pre-assigned quadrants. At the conclusion of the rampdown<br />
event the crews wait for a minimum of 2 hours before commencing the survey to make<br />
sure that hydraulic conditions downstream of the dam stabilise.<br />
The survey begins at the end of the 2 hr wait period with a clear demarcation of<br />
the sampling quadrant. Given the distance of travelled by the receded water margin, a<br />
quadrant width is chosen to ensure that the quadrant is 50 m 2 in area. Shoreline slope<br />
of the quadrant will also be recorded. Crews then search the quadrant by hand to a<br />
minimum depth of 20 cm for stranded fry. All fry found stranded in the quadrant will be<br />
classified as either alive or dead, and if dead, whether mortality occurred during the<br />
present rampdown event (determined by extent of decay and/or degree of rigour<br />
mortise). Live fry will be immediately returned to watered habitat.<br />
<strong>Water</strong> surface elevation is to be recorded prior to, and following each rampdown<br />
event so as to estimate the total dewatered area (m 2 ) using a 2 dimension hydraulic<br />
model (See Monitor 4). These will be compared to the quadrant-based estimates of<br />
dewatered area so as to verify model accuracy.<br />
As per the Leake and MacLean (1998) study, a total of four assessments will be<br />
carried out; two done at night and the other two during the day. The tidal surveys done<br />
in the Leake and MacLean (1998) study will not be repeated in this monitor.<br />
2.3.2 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Particular attention will have to be made regarding<br />
the night-time operation of boats to ferry crew to and from their respective designated<br />
study sections.<br />
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2.3.3 Data analysis<br />
Data analysis will proceed in two steps. The first will involve calculation of the<br />
stranding mortality, and the other will constitute a test of hypothesis H01.<br />
Stranding mortality<br />
Stranding mortality will be calculated as per the methodology of Leake and<br />
MacLean (1998). Quadrant samples, assumed to be accurate to within 5% of the true<br />
value based on Leake and MacLean (1998) results, will be pooled to calculate a<br />
weighted average fry stranding density (fry·m -2 ) given the different sizes of each study<br />
section. The pooled estimates will also provide a means of estimating between-site<br />
sampling variance<br />
The pooled stranding density value will then be multiplied by an estimate of total<br />
dewatered area (m 2 ), obtained by hydraulic simulation modelling that is calibrated by<br />
site-specific observations. The resulting value will be an estimate of the total number of<br />
stranded fry during the rampdown event. This estimate will then be compared with that<br />
of the total fry population during the event, which is calculated as laid out by Leake and<br />
MacLean (1998). The resulting ratio will then be used to estimate total fry stranding for<br />
each rampdown event during the emergence period. This value will then be reported as<br />
a proportion of the total fry population, along with an estimate of error (based on the<br />
variance of quadrant estimates)<br />
The hypothesis test<br />
Each year, the estimate of overall stranding will be compared to the 1.5 % total<br />
fry population criterion. The comparison will be carried out as a z-test, which will report<br />
the likelihood that the threshold value has been exceeded. This will be done for each<br />
year of the monitor until otherwise stated by the Management Committee. This will<br />
result in a pass/fail sequence that can be used by the Management Committee for<br />
decision making, or by future WUP committees, to assess whether the frequency of<br />
significant annual standing warrant a change to the WUP.<br />
2.3.4 Reporting<br />
Each year, a data report will be prepared that summarises the year’s findings,<br />
including the results of the z-test that determines the likelihood that stranding rate was<br />
beyond the 1.5 % threshold. The year’s data will be appended to the sequence of data<br />
collected in previous years. A draft of the annual report will be will be reviewed by the<br />
Management Committee prior to general release. As part of the review process, the<br />
Management committee will render judgement as to whether the monitor should be<br />
concluded, or allowed to proceed for another year.<br />
At the conclusion of the monitor a comprehensive report will be prepared from all<br />
of the annual data reports that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
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c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Like the annual reports, the Management Committee will review a draft of the report prior<br />
to its general release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
Each year, the management committee will be kept informed of the monitor’s<br />
progress through annual reports. From these reports, a pattern of annual stranding rate<br />
will become evident such that the management committee will have to decide whether<br />
the observed annual rate of stranding is within tolerable limits, or too great and therefore<br />
suggest the abandonment or modification of the spring block load strategy. Two<br />
aspects will be considered when rendering that decision: the extent of stranding each<br />
year, and the consistency of stranding rates between years. Data on the corresponding<br />
escapement of chum will also be considered in that decision as will the data on fry<br />
behaviour collected in the diel migration behaviour monitor.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
This monitor will be carried out in years 2 and 3 following implementation of the<br />
WUP and if deemed justifiable by the management committee, will be continued into<br />
subsequent years. For planning purposes, it will be assumed that the only two years of<br />
the monitor will be carried out. Data analysis and report writing is to be completed within<br />
a year after the data has been collected for each survey year.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the fry stranding monitor is estimated at $29,600 for each of the<br />
two years of the monitor. This cost estimate is based on 2004 dollars and when adjusted<br />
for annual inflation (2%), the total program cost is expected to be closer to $30,800 and<br />
$31,400 for years 1 and 2 respectively. A summary of the labour costs and expenses is<br />
provided in Table 6-1. The cost of additional years of data will be the same as that<br />
presented here, but will have to be adjusted for the additional years of inflation.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
Leake, A. C. and L. G. MacLean. 1998. Assessment of chum fry stranding downstream<br />
of Ruskin Generating Station. <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> Environmental Services Technical<br />
Report. 22 pp. + App.<br />
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Table 6-1: Estimated costs for the fry stranding monitoring program. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety<br />
planning, regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700<br />
2 2 $ 2,800<br />
Sampling Design Project Biologist $ 500<br />
1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Field Data Collection Project Biologist $ 500<br />
10 10 $ 10,000<br />
(total of 16 per survey)<br />
1<br />
Technicians<br />
$ 200<br />
64 64 $ 25,600<br />
Data Entry 1Project<br />
Biologist $ 500<br />
1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
2 2 $ 1,200<br />
Data Analysis Project Biologist $ 500<br />
3 3 $ 3,000<br />
Reporting Project Biologist $ 500<br />
4 4 $ 4,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
6 6 $ 3,600<br />
Contingency 5% $ - $ 1,305 $ 1,305 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 2,610<br />
Total Labour $ - $ 27,405 $ 27,405 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 54,810<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45<br />
2500 2500 $ 2,250<br />
Boat Rental $ 250<br />
4 4 $ 2,000<br />
Report reproduction $ 100<br />
1 1 $ 200<br />
Total Expenses $ - $ 2,225 $ 2,225 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 4,450<br />
Program Total $ - $ 29,630 $ 29,630 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 59,260<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ - $ 30,826 $ 31,443 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 62,269<br />
1 Technicians will be hired locally as per Leake and MacLean (1998)<br />
Units per year<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
7. Diel Pattern of Fry Out-migration<br />
The <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> WUP consultative Committee (CC) considered chum fry<br />
stranding mortality to be an important determinant of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> chum escapement.<br />
Even so, the CC was willing to accept limited stranding mortality (less than 1.5% of the<br />
total fry population) in order to adopt a spring limited block loading strategy as part of the<br />
WUP. However, the CC expressed some uncertainty about the population level effect of<br />
the accepted rate of stranding mortality, particularly during low escapement years. As a<br />
result, the CC recommended that studies be carried out to better understand the daily<br />
pattern of fry migration, as well as their behavioural response to rapid flow changes.<br />
The data can in turn be used to further minimise stranding mortality by developing<br />
strategies that better co-ordinate facility operations and migration behaviour.<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
Two management questions were raised by the CC, both of which pertain to<br />
better understanding of fry migration behaviour so that they may be exploited, if<br />
possible, to further minimise stranding risk. The first question was whether out-migrating<br />
fry express a daily pattern of migration, and if so, is it primarily at night, crepuscular, or<br />
during the day. The second question is more exploratory in nature and deals with<br />
whether the behaviour of emerging fry under rising, steady and falling water levels, and<br />
whether these change with the time of day and/or transverse location in the channel?<br />
Answers to the two questions above then lead to another pair of management<br />
questions that this time deal with the operational aspects of the issue; can operations be<br />
modified to further minimise stranding from the 1.5% threshold, and if so, can they lead<br />
to additional opportunities for increased operational flexibility? The latter two questions<br />
are to be addressed in next WUP process, and that this monitor is designed only to<br />
collect the information necessary for discussion of the issue, as well as final decision<br />
making.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
The fry migration monitor will be carried out as a test of a set of null hypotheses<br />
that must be tested in the sequence below:<br />
H01: The rate of movement of out-migrating fry, expressed as the number of fry<br />
caught in a stationary trap over a period of one hour, tends to be the same<br />
across diurnal, crepuscular, and nocturnal periods of the day.<br />
Test of this hypothesis will determine whether there are diel patterns in outmigration<br />
and if so, at what times fry tend to be stationary (and presumably at<br />
greater risk of stranding) versus the times at which they are on the move (and<br />
hence presumably at lesser risk of stranding).<br />
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H02: During periods of no movement, fry tend to be found at rest above the substrate.<br />
The antithesis of this hypothesis is that fish are absent from the area, and may<br />
be found either burrowed in the substrate, or have moved offshore to mid<br />
channel areas. Fish burrowed in the substrate are presumably at higher risk of<br />
stranding those that may have moved to the mid-channel.<br />
H03: Fry are evenly dispersed between near-shore shallow habitats and deeper off<br />
shore areas.<br />
This hypothesis is to be tested separately during periods of movement, as well as<br />
during periods of rest (if fry are found to be above the substrate). Dispersion is to<br />
be expressed as a visual estimate of local density and/or absolute number. Fish<br />
found near shore are presumably at greater risk of stranding than if found<br />
offshore.<br />
H04: During periods of movement, fry migration behaviour, expressed as a rate of<br />
capture using a stationary trap, tends to be the same between periods of rising,<br />
steady, and falling water levels.<br />
Test of this hypothesis is a general query as to whether the spring block loading<br />
operation affects the rate of fry migration.<br />
H05: During periods of no movement, fry behaviour tends to be the same between<br />
periods of rising, steady, and falling water levels.<br />
Test of this hypothesis will be far more qualitative than the previous null<br />
hypotheses since ‘changes in behaviour’ are not as easily quantified. Some of<br />
the changes in behaviour to look out for include movements to or from offshore<br />
areas, increased or decrease rates of emergence from gravel/cobble substrates,<br />
or increased recruitment to the migrating fry population.<br />
It should be noted that tests of hypotheses H01 to H05 should be carried out at<br />
two separate locations, one area where the backwater effects of the Fraser <strong>River</strong> are<br />
minimal, and another where such effects are extensive. Testing these hypotheses under<br />
differing backwater conditions will tease out the effects of tidal waters on the behaviour<br />
of emerging and migrating fry, if such exists.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
Results of this monitor are likely to provide the information necessary to<br />
determine whether subtle changes in the spring limited block loading operation that lead<br />
to reductions in fry stranding mortality, without significantly compromising operational<br />
flexibility, are possible. Such information may also lead to alternative strategies that<br />
better co-ordinate facility operation with fry behaviour so that increases in operational<br />
flexibility are possible without causing significant fry mortality. It is unlikely that results of<br />
the monitor will lead to operational changes prior to the next WUP review period.<br />
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2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area is restricted to the 1.5 km section of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> located<br />
immediately downstream of Ruskin Dam.<br />
b) Data should be collected at no more than two sites, each differing in the extent to<br />
which tidal backwater effects attenuate operational changes to water level.<br />
c) Data collection should occur during the fry emergence period, which is likely to<br />
be within the February 15 to May 15 timeframe. Given that data are to be<br />
collected at weekly intervals, a maximum of 12 weekly data sets are possible.<br />
The weekly data sets should correspond to the migration timing of chum. As a<br />
result, sampling will not be necessary for all weeks during the study timeframe.<br />
d) Variability in the periodicity and duration of high flow events during the spring<br />
block load period (considered here to be the study treatment) will be sought out<br />
opportunistically, though some events may be scheduled if deemed justifiable by<br />
the WUP Management Committee.<br />
e) The study should be completed within 1 year, though the study timeline can be<br />
extended for another year if deemed justifiable by the WUP Management<br />
Committee.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The general approach to this monitor is to collect quantitative and qualitative data<br />
using stationary trapping techniques as well as direct diver observation. These data are<br />
to be collected once per week for the duration of the fry emergence period to account for<br />
density dependent effects. Data will be collected at two study sites; one located close to<br />
Ruskin Dam where diel water level fluctuations are greatest, and at another location<br />
downstream where tidal effects would attenuate water level changes. Observations,<br />
whether by trap or visual assessment, are to be collected over a 24 hour period for each<br />
weekly sampling event. Sampling interval will depend on the nature of the data being<br />
collected, as well as the density of fry at the time of observation.<br />
Crew fatigue will be a concern in this study, which could affect crew safety as<br />
well as the quality of the data collected. To maximise crew safety, they will be operating<br />
out of a temporary, heated shelter placed near the study area. Having crew on site<br />
during the full duration of each weekly sampling event will also minimise vandalism – a<br />
high-risk occurrence in this populated area.<br />
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2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1. Field Methods<br />
Data on fry migration behaviour is to be collected in one of three ways depending<br />
on the hypothesis being tested. For H01 and H04, quantitative data will be collected by<br />
stationary trap such as an incline plane trap or fyke nets. Data needed to test H03 will be<br />
collected by direct observation while that needed to test H05 will be collected primarily by<br />
underwater video camera. Data collected by both direct observation and video camera<br />
will be used to test H02. The data collection methodologies are discussed separately<br />
below.<br />
Stationary Traps<br />
Stationary traps, such as incline plane traps or fyke nets, will be used to track the<br />
diel movements of fry through one or two day sampling periods. These traps will be<br />
installed at each study site in a location that can be safely accessed under high-flow,<br />
and at night. The traps are to be sampled at a minimum 4 hr interval, though a 1-2 hour<br />
sampling interval would be preferable. The traps are to be deployed once per week and<br />
are to be fished for no more than 48 hr. For safety reasons, all sampling is to be done<br />
by a crew of no less than two people.<br />
For each sampling interval, fry captured in the trap will be counted and the time<br />
interval since the last sampling period will be noted. As fish are removed form the trap,<br />
they are to be immediately released downstream of the trap. Morphometric data such as<br />
fork length and wet weight are not to be collected as part of this monitor.<br />
Give the timeframe of the study, a maximum of 12 weekly data sets of hourly trap<br />
counts are possible. Actual sampling effort will likely be less than this maximum, since it<br />
will depend on the length of the fry migration period, the duration of each weekly<br />
sampling period, and the choice of sampling interval. It should be noted that these traps<br />
are to be fished only to collect data on migration timing and are not intended as a means<br />
to quantify the year’s fry population.<br />
Direct Observation<br />
Direct observations are to be carried out by a swift water rescue trained crew of<br />
2-3 people each equipped with dry suit, rescue life vest, mask, snorkel, and throw bags.<br />
If possible, a high-resolution camera will be used to take photographs of near shore and<br />
offshore areas. These photographs will be taken from the same set of vantage points<br />
each time so that they are directly comparable. These photographs will then be used to<br />
estimate relative densities of fry at each location and sampling period. Because fry<br />
counts by photograph may not be reliable, divers will attempt to make similar estimates<br />
under water, i.e., estimate fry density within their field of vision from consistent vantage<br />
points. These vantage points will be marked underwater by flagging. Photographs and<br />
diver counts will be made from left and right banks at several transect locations along<br />
the length of each study site. Observations should be made from a minimum of three<br />
transect locations at each site.<br />
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Transect location will be chosen to ensure diver safety when conducting the<br />
survey. Transect fry counts are to be done on at least three occasions for each<br />
combination of steady high flow, steady low flow, period of movement and period of rest.<br />
Fry density estimates are to be expressed as an areal density (fry·m -2 ) within the field of<br />
vision (of either the diver or camera). Because fry density estimates are relative and two<br />
divers will be making the observations, the pattern of observations made by each diver<br />
will have to be repeated for each sampling period so that observer bias is consistent<br />
between samples. Preferably, all observations should be made by one diver so as to<br />
eliminate observer bias altogether. Given the prescribed minimum sampling frequency 2 ,<br />
a total of 72 density estimates are expected per site, though a greater sampling<br />
frequency would be preferred.<br />
Underwater Video<br />
An underwater video camera will be installed at several locations within each<br />
study site to monitor the behaviour of emergent chum fry during rising, steady and falling<br />
water levels. Videography will be directed primarily towards near shore areas so as to<br />
focus effort on conditions that may result in high stranding risk. A minimum of 3 video<br />
sequences will be shot for each period of rest and movement during periods of rising,<br />
steady and falling flow conditions. This prescription of sampling effort will result in 18<br />
video sequences for each study site. The data collected from each video will depend on<br />
the type of behavioural response observed.<br />
2.3.2. Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines. Because some underwater sampling is to occur at<br />
night during winter, a temporary heated shelter will have to be installed within the study<br />
area to prevent hypothermia and crew fatigue, both of which are safety concerns and<br />
may impact the quality of collected data. A permanent presence at the site will also be<br />
needed to prevent vandalism during the study. Because the shelter will be located<br />
downstream of the dam, a formal communication protocol will have to be established<br />
with facility operators to warn of operational changes or if necessary, arrange for<br />
evacuation. Finally, an evacuation route will have to be developed and maintained to<br />
ensure that crews are not trapped at the site regardless of flow conditions.<br />
2.3.3 Data Analysis<br />
All data, photographs, and video clips will be entered into a common database<br />
for storage and subsequent analysis. Hypothesis testing will rely on parametric and nonparametric<br />
statistics such as t-tests, analysis of variance, and Chi Square tests as the<br />
data type and number of factors dictate. Assumptions of independence, randomness<br />
2<br />
At each site, there will be a minimum of 3 transects x right and lift sides x high and low steady flow states x rest and<br />
active fry states.<br />
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and normality will be assessed prior to all analyses and appropriate data transformations<br />
will be carried out if necessary to ensure compliance.<br />
2.3.4. Reporting<br />
At the conclusion of field activities and the data analysis phase, a comprehensive<br />
report will be prepared that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
c) Describes the data and the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discuses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future changes.<br />
A draft of the report will be reviewed by Management Committee prior to general<br />
release. If the data set is deemed inadequate, the Management committee may consent<br />
to the collection of additional data and subsequent analysis before the report is finalised.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
Results of the monitor will provide considerable insight into the behaviour of<br />
emergent fry under the variable flow conditions commonly experienced at peaking<br />
plants. Although the results will be most pertinent to the <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> chum salmon<br />
population, it may also provide insight that is transferable to other systems in <strong>BC</strong>.<br />
The knowledge gained through this monitor will be most useful in designing<br />
operating strategies that that minimise stranding mortality, yet allow peaking operations<br />
to continue albeit to a more limited extent. With the present WUP, CC members were<br />
willing to accept a limited amount of fry stranding mortality, yet many still felt that every<br />
effort should be made to minimise such mortality. Results of this monitor will provide the<br />
information necessary to uncover those key behavioural actions that could be exploited<br />
to better co-ordinate flow change events so as to minimise the risk of stranding.<br />
Results of the monitor are unlikely to lead to immediate changes in the WUP,<br />
unless proposed by the Management Committee because there is a clear benefit to all<br />
stakeholders to do so. This information would likely have greater value during the next<br />
WUP review process when discussions on the value of the present spring block loading<br />
strategy are to take place. Depending the result of other <strong>Stave</strong> WUP monitors, it may be<br />
necessary to alter the spring block loading strategy to resolve newly developed or<br />
unforeseen conflicts in values. It is at this time that the information will have its greatest<br />
value.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
This monitor will be carried out in year 4 following implementation of the WUP<br />
and if deemed justifiable by the management committee, will be continued into year 5 for<br />
another sampling season. For planning purposes, it will be assumed that the second<br />
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year of on the monitor will be carried out. Data analysis and report writing is to be<br />
completed within a year after data collection has been completed.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the resident fish monitor is estimated at $39,400 for the first year<br />
of the monitor and $38,900 for the second year if deemed necessary by the WUP<br />
Management Committee. This cost estimate is based on 2004 dollars and when<br />
adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total program cost is expected to be closer to<br />
$42,600 and $42,900 for years 1 and 2 respectively. A summary of the labour costs and<br />
expenses is provided in Table 7-1. It should be noted that this cost estimate differs<br />
considerably from $25,000 stated in the CC report (Failing 1999). This difference stems<br />
largely from an increase in scope to ensure crew safety, namely an increase in crew size<br />
from 2 to 3 people, and the addition of a temporary onsite shelter. Also important to<br />
note is that 2 days were budgeted to complete each survey so as to cover the cost of<br />
equipment set-up and dismantling times.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
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Table 7-1: Estimated costs for the fry out-migration monitoring program. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers safety<br />
planning, regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700<br />
1 1 $ 1,400<br />
Sampling Design Project Biologist $ 500<br />
2 1 $ 1,500<br />
Field Data Collection Project Biologist $ 500<br />
20 20 $ 20,000<br />
(total of 10 surveys) Technician 1 $ 300<br />
20 20 $ 12,000<br />
Technician 2 $ 300<br />
20 20 $ 12,000<br />
Data Entry Project Biologist $ 500<br />
1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
4 4 $ 2,400<br />
Data Analysis Project Biologist $ 500<br />
3 3 $ 3,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
3 3 $ 1,800<br />
Reporting Project Biologist $ 500<br />
5 5 $ 5,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
10 10 $ 6,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ - $ - $ - $ 1,665 $ 1,640 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 3,305<br />
Total Labour $ - $ - $ - $ 34,965 $ 34,440 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 69,405<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Incline plane or fyke net $ 125 20 20 $ 5,000<br />
Underwater Camera $ 5 20 20 $ 200<br />
Underwater Video $ 10 20 20 $ 400<br />
Drysuit/Snorkel Gear $ 45<br />
20 20 $ 1,800<br />
Meals $ 45<br />
30 30 $ 2,700<br />
Temporary shelter $ 50<br />
15 15 $ 1,500<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45<br />
2500 2500 $ 2,250<br />
Report reproduction $ 100<br />
1 1 $ 200<br />
Total Expenses $ - $ - $ - $ 4,425 $ 4,425 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 8,850<br />
Program Total $ - $ - $ - $ 39,390 $ 38,865 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 78,255<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 $ 42,636 $ 42,909 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 $ 85,537<br />
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10-year<br />
Total
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Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005<br />
8. Seasonal Timing and Assemblage of Resident Fish<br />
1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
One of the difficulties encountered during the issue-scoping phase of the WUP<br />
process was the paucity of information dealing the seasonal use of resident species<br />
downstream of Ruskin Dam, if indeed there is an extensive population. This data gap<br />
was identified early on during the WUP process, and a quick, reconnaissance-level<br />
survey of the area was carried out. Results of this single, summertime survey only<br />
confirmed the presence of those species already known to reside in the system, and<br />
revealed little about their seasonal patterns of use. Gaining such an understanding of<br />
resident species natural history however, was subsequently judged to be a lower priority<br />
than other more pressing information gaps, and as a result additional surveys were<br />
abandoned in order to re-allocate funding elsewhere. Resolution of this issue was still<br />
deemed important, and was therefore delegated to a monitoring program. Resident<br />
species include rainbow trout, cutthroat trout, mountain whitefish and brassy minnow<br />
(<strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong> 2004).<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
To proceed with the WUP process in the absence of resident fish seasonal use<br />
data downstream of Ruskin Dam, several assumptions were made:<br />
a) <strong>Water</strong> releases from Ruskin dam found to impact or benefit spawning and<br />
incubation activities similarly affect rearing conditions for resident fish species.<br />
For example, the 100 m 3 s -1 base flow during the anadromous spawning and<br />
incubation periods (as per the Combo 6 strategy) would benefit resident species<br />
as well.<br />
b) During the summer, operations that minimise within-day and between-day<br />
variability in flows improve rearing conditions for juvenile salmonids and resident<br />
fish species. This includes access to and availability of side channel habitats.<br />
The key management question is whether these assumptions are valid, i.e., do<br />
WUP operations based on anadromous salmonid rearing and spawning criteria conflict<br />
with the seasonal habitat use patterns of other resident fish species?<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
There is only one impact hypothesis:<br />
H01: Releases downstream of Ruskin dam do not impact the seasonal habitat-use<br />
patterns of resident fish species, particularly none salmonid species. [A major<br />
component of this hypothesis test is an investigation into the importance of sidechannel<br />
access and availability.]<br />
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1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
Because of information gaps, the seasonal habitat requirements of resident fish<br />
species could not be directly incorporated into the development of the WUP. Rather<br />
assumptions of ‘mutual benefit’ were made whereby it was believed that benefits<br />
realised by salmonid species would also likely be realised by other species, particularly<br />
with the range of feasible operational changes. If this were found not to be the case, the<br />
extent of impact would have to be evaluated relative to that of other values, and an<br />
alternative operation would have to be sought if deemed to be high. This would have to<br />
be determined during the next WUP process.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of this monitor is to collect the data necessary to test the impact<br />
hypotheses outlined in Section 1.3 and hence, address the management questions<br />
presented in Section 1.2. The following aspects define the scope of the study:<br />
a) The study area is restricted to the 1.5 km section of <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> located<br />
immediately downstream of Ruskin Dam.<br />
b) Data collection will occur though out the year at 6-8 week intervals.<br />
c) Data collection is to be completed within 1 year.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
Data collection will consist of reconnaissance-level fish surveys carried out every<br />
6 to 8 weeks and rely on non-lethal fish capture methods. Multiple sites will be sampled<br />
through out the study area to gain an understanding of relative habitat use of each<br />
species. The data will be collated into periodicity tables, as well as in a database and on<br />
air photo-mosaics to summarise seasonal habitat use.<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1 Field Methods<br />
Site Selection<br />
Reconnaissance levels fish survey will be carried throughout the study area.<br />
Sample locations will be pre-selected and re-sampled during each survey period. A total<br />
of 20 sites will be sampled during each survey. The distribution of sites will be such that<br />
most major sections of the river, including side channels will be sampled. It is<br />
anticipated that a two-person crew can complete each survey in a two-day period. A site<br />
description will be completed prior to sampling for each survey period so as to track<br />
seasonal changes if any and will follow RIC (1998) standards.<br />
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Fish Capture<br />
Fish capture will be by non-lethal methods, including minnow trap, beach seine,<br />
backpack electroshocker (single pass), and snorkel observations. The choice of capture<br />
method will depend of the characteristics of the site and if possible, will be repeated<br />
during each survey.<br />
Fish Enumeration<br />
All captured fish will be identified to the nearest species taxon and approximate<br />
life cycle stage. A sub-sample will be lightly anaesthetised by CO2 generating tablets<br />
(e.g. Eno), measured for fork length and wet weight, and replaced into a recovery<br />
bucket. After processing, all fish will be released back to the river.<br />
2.3.2 Safety Concerns<br />
A safety plan will have to be developed for all aspects of the study in accordance<br />
to <strong>BC</strong>H procedures and guidelines.<br />
2.3.3 Data Analysis<br />
All data will be entered into a common database. Analysis will consist of simple<br />
descriptive statistics and summary tables. Also important will be the creation of a<br />
periodicity chart of non-salmonid resident species, as well as descriptions and/or maps<br />
of their preferred habitats/river locations.<br />
An assessment as to whether seasonal habitat use is affected by operations will<br />
be based on the data collected during the monitor, as well as published information on<br />
species-specific habitat requirements and general habitat use periodicities. The result<br />
will be a set of impact hypotheses for consideration at the next WUP process<br />
2.3.4 Reporting<br />
At the conclusion of the resident fish use monitor, a draft report will be prepared<br />
for submission to the Management Committee that:<br />
a) Re-iterates the objective and scope of the monitor,<br />
b) Presents the methods used for data collection,<br />
c) Describes the compiled data set and presents the results of all analyses, and<br />
d) Discusses the consequences of these results as they pertain to the current WUP<br />
operation, and the necessity and/or possibility for future change.<br />
Once reviewed by Management Committee, a final report will be prepared for general<br />
release. The reporting process is to be completed within 1 year after the data collection<br />
phase<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
The data collected during the monitor will be used to construct a species<br />
periodicity chart of all resident fishes along with a description of their preferred sitespecific<br />
habitats. This information will have its greatest value during the next WUP<br />
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process where the general assumption of ‘mutual benefit’ can be abandoned for more<br />
species-specific impact hypotheses. It is unlikely that this information will lead to<br />
immediate changes to the WUP.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
This monitor will be carried out in years 6 and 7 following implementation of the<br />
WUP. Data collection will be started in January of year 6 and be completed by the end<br />
of the year. Data analysis and report writing is to be completed in the following year.<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The total cost of the resident fish monitor is estimated at $33,900. This cost<br />
estimate is based on 2004 dollars and when adjusted for annual inflation (2%), the total<br />
program cost is expected to be closer to $38,300. A summary of the labour costs and<br />
expenses is provided in Table 8-1.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
<strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. 2004. <strong>Stave</strong>/Ruskin/Alouette Field Facility Guide.<br />
Available online at: http://w3/g/power_facilities/field_guides/sra/sra-05.htm<br />
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Table 8-1: Estimated costs for the ‘Seasonal Timing and Assemblage of Resident Fish’ monitoring program. Contingency is calculated<br />
on field labour, and covers safety planning, regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700<br />
3 $ 2,100<br />
Sampling Design Project Biologist $ 500<br />
2 $ 1,000<br />
Field Data Collection Project Biologist $ 500<br />
16 $ 8,000<br />
(total of 8 surveys) Technician 1 $ 300<br />
16 $ 4,800<br />
Data Entry Technician 1 $ 300<br />
4 $ 1,200<br />
Data Analysis Project Biologist $ 500<br />
2 3 $ 2,500<br />
Reporting Project Biologist $ 500<br />
2 4 $ 3,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300<br />
8 $ 2,400<br />
Contingency 5% $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 955 $ 295 $ - $ - $ - $ 1,250<br />
Total Labour $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 20,055 $ 6,195 $ - $ - $ - $ 26,250<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Electroshocker $ 75 16 $ 1,200<br />
Seine net $ 20 16 $ 320<br />
Minnow Traps (set of 10) $ 25 16 $ 400<br />
Drysuit/Snorkel Gear $ 45<br />
16 $ 720<br />
Meals $ 45<br />
16 $ 720<br />
Accommodatio $ 100<br />
8 $ 800<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45<br />
2000 $ 900<br />
Boat rental (per day) $ 250<br />
16 $ 4,000<br />
Report reproduction $ 100<br />
1 $ 100<br />
Total Expenses $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 7,640 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 7,640<br />
Program Total $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 27,695 $ 6,195 $ - $ - $ - $ 33,890<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 $ 31,188 $ 7,115 -$ 1 -$ 1 -$ 1 $ 38,295<br />
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Monitoring Terms of Reference June 13, 2005<br />
9. Turbidity Levels in Hayward Reservoir<br />
1.0 Program Rationale<br />
1.1 Background<br />
A small number of local residents use Hayward Lake reservoir as a source of<br />
drinking water. Historically, Hayward reservoir water levels have generally been kept<br />
fairly constant. The normal minimum water level for Hayward Lake reservoir is 4 m, but<br />
will lower to 39.5 m during block loading periods under the WUP. Some concern was<br />
raised that the lowered minimum water level could cause shoreline erosion in some<br />
areas and therefore, increase turbidity levels beyond provincial drinking water quality<br />
standards. Though this was deemed unlikely by the CC, a monitor was still<br />
recommended to ensure that this was indeed the case (Failing 1999).<br />
1.2 Management Questions<br />
Although changes in drinking water quality are not anticipated with the changes<br />
in Hayward Lake reservoir operations, the importance of the issue requires that it be<br />
verified. High turbidity levels are commonly linked with other health related water quality<br />
concerns. If an increase in turbidity is detected, the change in Hayward Lake reservoir’s<br />
minimum operating level will have to be re-evaluated, or alternatively mitigative actions<br />
may have to be taken.<br />
1.3 Summary of Impact Hypotheses<br />
There is only one impact hypothesis being considered here:<br />
H01: The quality of drinking water drawn from Hayward Lake reservoir remains within<br />
provincial standards following the change in it’s minimum operating level, as<br />
indicated by water turbidity levels.<br />
1.4 Key <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> Decisions Affected<br />
If an increase in turbidity is detected, the drop in Hayward Lake reservoir’s<br />
minimum operating level will have to be re-evaluated. Depending on the severity of the<br />
impact, the re-evaluation process may have to take place prior to the scheduled WUP<br />
review period. Alternatively, mitigative options may be sought. Again, depending on the<br />
severity of the impact, implementation of such options may have to take place prior to<br />
the scheduled WUP review period.<br />
2.0 Monitoring Program Proposal<br />
2.1 Objective and Scope<br />
The objective of the monitor will be to collect the turbidity data necessary to<br />
adequately test impact hypothesis H01 as stated in Section 1.3 and hence, address the<br />
management question in Section 1.2. The scope of the monitor will be restricted to<br />
Hayward Lake. Turbidity observations will be collected bi-monthly and continue for the<br />
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duration of the 10 year monitoring period, along with the annual shoreline surveys,<br />
unless otherwise directed by the Management Committee.<br />
2.2 Approach<br />
The monitoring program will consist of two parts; a routine monitor that collects<br />
turbidity data at specified locations on a bi-monthly basis, and an annual shoreline<br />
survey to look for areas of obvious erosion. Where possible, sampling is to be done at<br />
the same time each year to minimise temporal confounding factors. The duration of the<br />
monitor will be determined by the Management Committee and will depend on the<br />
nature of the data and resulting conclusions. For planning purposes, the bi-monthly<br />
turbidity measurements will be continued for the duration of the 10-year monitoring<br />
period.<br />
The <strong>Stave</strong> WUP CC has recommended that a 5-year monitoring review period be<br />
carried out with the Management committee to discuss monitoring results to date,<br />
reassess funding requirements, and make recommendations to the <strong>Water</strong> Comptroller<br />
as required (Failing 1999).<br />
2.3 Methods<br />
2.3.1. Field Methods<br />
Turbidity Observations<br />
Turbidity will be measured in situ by a turbidity meter using appropriate sample<br />
vials. <strong>Water</strong> samples will be collected 5 to 10 cm below the water surface at arm’s<br />
length from shore. At no time is the sampler to wade into the site as this may raise<br />
sediments and contaminate the area. Prior to each measurement, the meter will be<br />
calibrated using a sample vial of distilled water. The outside of each sample vial vials<br />
should be free of all traces of water before being place into the meter. All data will be<br />
reported in NTU units.<br />
Turbidity levels will be collected from several sights throughout the reservoir. At<br />
a minimum, this will include a site immediately downstream of the <strong>Stave</strong> Lake Dam<br />
plunge pool, at the Hayward Lake Recreation site, midway down the reservoir, and just<br />
upstream of the Ruskin Dam forebay. Samples will also be taken adjacent to the pump<br />
house intakes for the Ruskin <strong>Water</strong> System, as well as saw water from the pump house<br />
itself.<br />
Annual Shoreline Survey<br />
Once a year during periods of low water level, the full extent of the shoreline will<br />
be surveyed by boat in search of obvious signs of erosion. Evidence of erosion will be<br />
photographed and plotted on an air-photo or map of the area. Once an area has been<br />
identified, it will be photographed from the same vantage each year to monitor progress<br />
of the erosion event. Date, GPS co-ordinates, type of camera, and zoom magnification<br />
will be reported for each photograph taken. If necessary, markers of known size may be<br />
installed in order to record the scale of the photograph.<br />
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2.3.2. Data Analysis<br />
All data, including photographs, will be entered into a common database that will<br />
be continuously updated. Turbidity observations will be compared to provincial drinking<br />
water quality standards to assess the extent of impact, if any. Between-site<br />
comparisons will be used as an aid to identify possible sediment sources should<br />
excessive turbidity levels be found. Correlation with temporal patterns in reservoir water<br />
level will also be explored using time lag analysis. If evidence of shoreline erosion were<br />
found, its extent will be evaluated by comparing between-year photographs taken from<br />
the same vantage.<br />
2.3.3. Reporting<br />
Each year, a data report will be prepared that summarises the year’s data in<br />
terms of how well they meet provincial drinking water guidelines. Where evident,<br />
seasonal or annual patterns of turbidity will be presented, along with an analysis of<br />
potential correlation with patterns of reservoir water level. Evidence of shoreline erosion<br />
will also be discussed. A draft of each annual report will be submitted to the<br />
Management Committee for review prior to general release.<br />
2.4 Interpretation of Monitoring Program Results<br />
This monitor was design to provide assurance to local residents that turbidity<br />
levels will not rise beyond drinking water quality standards in Hayward Lake during the<br />
expanded range of operation. If turbidity levels do rise above the guidelines, and there<br />
is evidence of shoreline erosion, then the operational change will be abandoned unless<br />
an alternative is found that is acceptable to both local residents and the Management<br />
Committee.<br />
In the case that turbidity does not rise, as expected, then the monitor will be<br />
abandoned at the request of the Management Committee, and no change to the WUP<br />
will occur.<br />
2.5 Schedule<br />
This monitoring program will be carried out annually until otherwise directed by<br />
the management Committee. The monitor is to be started the same year that the WUP<br />
is implemented. Maximum duration of the program will be 10 years, the duration of the<br />
WUP review period. The <strong>Stave</strong> WUP CC has recommended that a 5-year monitoring<br />
review period be carried out with the Management committee to discuss monitoring<br />
results to date, reassess funding requirements, and make recommendations to the<br />
<strong>Water</strong> Comptroller as required (Failing 1999).<br />
2.6 Budget<br />
The annual cost of the program is anticipated to be $8,000 for the first year of the<br />
survey, and $7,500 for all subsequent years. This cost estimate is based on 2004<br />
dollars and should be adjusted 2% annually to account for inflation. The total cost for<br />
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the 10-year program in 2004 dollars is $75,875. When adjusted for annual inflation, the<br />
total program cost is expected to be closer to $84,700. A summary of the labour costs<br />
and expenses is provided in Table 9-1.<br />
2.7 References<br />
Failing, L. 1999. <strong>Stave</strong> <strong>River</strong> <strong>Water</strong> <strong>Use</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>: Report of the consultative committee.<br />
Prepared by Compass Resource Management Ltd for <strong>BC</strong> <strong>Hydro</strong>. October 1999.<br />
44 pp. + App.<br />
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Table 9-1: Estimated costs for the Hayward Lake turbidity monitoring program. Contingency is calculated on field labour, and covers<br />
safety planning, regulatory approvals (permits), field logistics, and unforeseen weather delays.<br />
Task Labour<br />
Daily<br />
Rate<br />
Units per year<br />
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10<br />
Project Management Project Manager $ 700 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 7,000<br />
Study Area/Site Preparation Project Biologist $ 500 1 $ 500<br />
Bi-monthly Turbidity Samples Project Biologist $ 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 5,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 $ 18,000<br />
Annual shoreline survey Project Biologist $ 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 5,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 3,000<br />
Data Entry Technician 1 $ 300 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 3,000<br />
Data Analysis Project Biologist $ 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 5,000<br />
Reporting Project Biologist $ 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 5,000<br />
Technician 1 $ 300 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $ 9,000<br />
Contingency 5% $ 325 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 300 $ 3,025<br />
Total Labour $ 6,825 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 6,300 $ 63,525<br />
Expenses<br />
Unit<br />
Cost<br />
Turbidity meter (per day) $ 25 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 $ 1,500<br />
Sample Vials $ 3 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 $ 600<br />
Vehicle (per km) $ 0.45 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 $ 6,750<br />
Boat rental (per day) $ 250 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 2,500<br />
Report reproduction $ 100 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 $ 1,000<br />
Total Expenses $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 1,235 $ 12,350<br />
Program Total $ 8,060 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 7,535 $ 75,875<br />
Inflation Adjustment 2% $ 8,220 $ 7,838 $ 7,995 $ 8,155 $ 8,318 $ 8,485 $ 8,654 $ 8,827 $ 9,004 $ 9,184 $ 84,682<br />
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Total