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If hydrocarbons supplies run out, we’re
in trouble. More importantly, if our
existing supplies are in terminal
decline, we’re in almost as much trouble
anyway; and much sooner. If our ability to
extract fossil fuels declines to uneconomic
levels, it really doesn’t matter how much
is actually down there.
So how much is down there and how
long will it last us? Estimates,
unsurprisingly, vary a lot. Many
governments consider estimates of their
supplies as state secrets. Undaunted,
many academics attempt to make
predictions even with this incomplete
information. For oil we’ve got maybe 30
to 40 years left according to a 2011 study.
But more importantly, as alluded to
before, peak oil extraction is probably
more important and may have already
been and gone.
It is highly likely that once this decade is
out we will have reached it, if we haven’t
already, and we will have already begun
to see the negative effects of oil’s
transition from a demand-led to supplyconstrained
commodity. “The age of
cheap liquid fuels is over,” claims the
report.
Estimating coal and natural gas supplies
are more complicated. The industry Oil
and Gas Journal estimates them at 417
years and 167 years, respectively.
Unfortunately, as with its 43 year
estimate for oil these figures are likely
overly optimistic.
As the report highlights, exporting
nations and industry have significant
incentives to conceal and distort their
figures. These estimates should be
considered with some scepticism.
Scientific blogger, Raphaël Van Laer, has
calculated fossil fuel reserve depletion
estimates based on 2009 reserve and
production (R/P) ratios supplied by the US
Energy Information Administration (EIA).
His model estimates depletion by around
2070 for oil, 2061 for natural gas and
14
SHAREWATCH
Fossil fuels - nearly gone?
Almost all of human civilization’s power needs are met by burning hydrocarbons, points out
WIP’s economic analyst Chris Hopkins. But how much is left - and how long will it last?
Company
(Currency)
Monthly
share price
52 week
high/low
ABB (CHF) 21.80 18.34/
23.97
Ansaldo (EUR) 9.66 8.85/
11.94
Atlas Copco (SEK) 148.90 98.10/
161.20
Caterpillar (USD) 105.82 58.06/
116.55
* CHLORIDE Taken over
by EMERSON
Cummins (USD) 103.32 63.04/
121.49
Doosan Heavy
Industries (KRW)
Foster Wheeler
(USD)
56500
50800/
96200
30.49 20.33/
39.75
GE (USD) 18.85 13.75/
21.65
John Deere (EUR) 1400 990.00/
1400
Kirloskar (INR) 286.60 280.00/
3406.65
MAN (EUR) 91.96 47.90/
97.85
Mitsubishi (JPY) 2000 1784/
2500
MTU Detroit
Diesel (EUR)
555.08 34.91/
56.60
Rolls-Royce (GBX) 645.00 533.00/
674.50
Siemens (EUR) 94.70 70.02/
99.39
Volvo Penta (SEK) 110.50 80.85/
122.00
Wärtsilä (EUR) 23.11 18.17/
29.50
anywhere from 2079-2155 for coal, due to
incomplete data. He, again, cautions that
problems stemming from the economics of
extracting these resources will hit us far
before these dates, though. There are
many who would survey this uncertainty
Change over
month
N OVEMBER 2011 • WORLDWIDE I NDEPENDENT P OWER
Change
over year
Change since
Jan. 2008
-3.58% +14.92% -21.86%
-2.08% -12.34% +11.81%
+2.62% +43.31% +68.73%
+1.17% +58.64% +120.11%
-1.57% +134.46% +125.56%
-2.75% -25.26%
-10.03% +44.78% -57.53%
-3.03% +30.72% -47.87%
0.00% +2.94% +13.36%
-1.60% -28.71%
Monthly figures taken at the end of October 2011
-5.11% +73.89% +3.32%
+3.96% +4.48% -15.99%
+1.62% +37.42% +53.07%
+2.38% +14.67% +32.65%
+4.77% +27.94% +5.94%
+0.09% +26.50% +23.12%
-6.68% +23.03% -46.60%
and simply decry the foolishness of trying
to inductively estimate our future
resources. Whatever you believe, one
thing is clear: our fossil fuel-based
economies will almost certainly not
survive the coming century. WIP