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Investment Plan - OPERS

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2 0 1 0 I N V E S T M E N T P L A N<br />

FUND STRATEGIES<br />

Defined Benefit Fund<br />

Expected Asset Growth<br />

The table below summarizes Staff’s estimate of market value and ranges for the Defined Benefit Fund at<br />

December 31, 2010. The pessimistic and optimistic cases are based on the 2010 assumptions listed in the<br />

Defined Benefit Fund’s Return and Risk section.<br />

The anticipated market value of $56.6 billion for December 31, 2009 is derived by a smoothing projection<br />

that incorporates both the actual Defined Benefit Fund return through August 31, 2009 and the expected<br />

full-year return for 2009 presented in the 2009 Annual <strong>Investment</strong> <strong>Plan</strong>.<br />

26<br />

Defined Benefit Fund<br />

2010 Expected Asset Growth<br />

Estimated Market Values, Returns and Cash Flows<br />

Pessimistic<br />

Case<br />

Base<br />

Case<br />

Optimistic<br />

Case<br />

12/31/09 Market Value ($ billions) $56.6 $56.6 $56.6<br />

Expected Total Return -9.9% 7.6% 27.4%<br />

Expected <strong>Investment</strong> Gain ($ billions) ($5.6) $4.3 $15.5<br />

Expected Cash Flow ($ billions) ($2.0) ($2.0) ($2.0)<br />

12/31/10 Market Value ($ billions) $49.0 $58.9 $70.1

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