Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
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Revue <strong>de</strong> Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka C;ape-Rivista Stampa-Dentro <strong>de</strong> la Prensa-Basm Oz<strong>et</strong>i<br />
tion. "Opposition," says True Path Party<br />
lea<strong>de</strong>r Mehm<strong>et</strong> Agar, "ends at Habur"-<br />
Thrkey's bor<strong>de</strong>r crossing with Iraq.<br />
Can Washington keep the lid on this<br />
bubbling pot? Not for long, many experts<br />
fear. Despite past assurances, the U.S. military<br />
has been unwilling or unable to<br />
mount operations against the guerrillas.<br />
With its hands full elsewhere, Washington<br />
can realistically offer little more than intelligence-sharing,<br />
coupled with possible<br />
measures to cut off PKK funding. That's<br />
just not enough, says a senior Erdogan<br />
ai<strong>de</strong>: "We want action, not words:' Nor<br />
can the 'lUrks expect much from the Iraqis.<br />
"We will not tolerate any terrorist groups<br />
on the territory ofIraq," Iraqi Foreign Minister<br />
Hoshir Zebari told NEWSWEEK. But<br />
even he acknowledges that it may be a<br />
while before the government's security<br />
forces g<strong>et</strong> around to <strong>de</strong>aling with the PKK.<br />
By contrast, Iran last week began shelling<br />
PKK positions around Kandil Mountain<br />
on northern Iraq's Iranian and Thrkish<br />
bor<strong>de</strong>r. Presi<strong>de</strong>nt Mahmoud Ahmadinejad<br />
also called Erdogan to assure him o,'Tehran's<br />
willingess to help quell the guerrillas<br />
-unlike the United States.<br />
This won't automatically<br />
lead to an-<br />
other front in the region's wars. For all the<br />
clamor for a military strike, "the sane<br />
members of the Thrkish General Staff are<br />
aware of the costs of going into northern<br />
Iraq," says in<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt analyst Grenville<br />
Byford. Those inclu<strong>de</strong> possible all-out<br />
civil disor<strong>de</strong>r across Thrkey's Kurdish<br />
southeast provinces-which, if rioting<br />
this spring is anything to go by, would<br />
lead to a brutal crackdown, hurting<br />
Ankara's hopes for joining the<br />
EU. "There is no good way out<br />
of this for the Thrkish government,"<br />
says Byford.<br />
All this comes at a bad time,<br />
clearly. Thrkey could playa key<br />
diplomatic role in <strong>de</strong>aling with<br />
the burgeoning crisis in southern<br />
Lebanon, NATO officials<br />
say, especially if Thrkey were willing to<br />
provi<strong>de</strong> troops to the sort of international<br />
force being promoted by France and other<br />
European lea<strong>de</strong>rs, including Tony Blair.<br />
Not only are Thrks Muslims, which should<br />
reduce frictions with the local population,<br />
but Ankara also enjoys good working relations<br />
with many of the countries and<br />
forces active behind the scenes. As one of<br />
Damascus's few friends in the region, for<br />
example, Ankara would be in a good position<br />
to rein in Syrian ambitions in Lebanon.<br />
Erdogan has been trying to play the<br />
role of mediator with Iran, Israel and the<br />
Palestinians as well-precisely why Thrkey<br />
would "encourage and support" an international<br />
peacekeeping force, says Foreign<br />
Ministry spokesman Namik Tan.<br />
Objectively, Thrkey knows that it<br />
has no real option but to remain within<br />
the Western Alliance. As for<br />
There is no Erdogan himself, who has<br />
pushed through so many dragood<br />
way out matic reforms to win memberof<br />
this for the ship in the European Union,<br />
he, too, will be reluctant to<br />
government. break with the West, however<br />
-GRENVILLE BYFORD sorely provoked by the PKK.<br />
Still, if attacks continue to<br />
the point where his political survival is<br />
at stake, that sense of restraint could<br />
abruptly give way. Last week rumors<br />
swirled in Ankara and Istanbul that he<br />
was close to such a move. For the United<br />
States and others, the diplomatic challenge<br />
is to help save Erdogan from having<br />
to make such a choice. If they fail, the next<br />
occasion may require more than a phone<br />
call from Bush.<br />
•<br />
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