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sakvebwarmoeba da cxovelTa kveba

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47<br />

sa<strong>da</strong>c Kn aris mcenaris bioklimaturi produqtiulobis koeficienti,<br />

Σt>10 0 –10 0 -ze meti temperaturis jami, 1000 0 – 10 0 -ze meti temperaturebis jami<br />

saqarTveloSi.<br />

III.4. sakvebi kulturebis mosavlis maTematikur-statistikuri modelebi<br />

mosavlis prognozirebisa <strong>da</strong> programirebis meTodebis <strong>da</strong>muSavebis<br />

paralelurad, romelic emyareba agroklimaturi <strong>da</strong> nia<strong>da</strong>guri monacemis<br />

ganzogadebas, mimarTaven maTematikur modelirebas. pirvel etapze<br />

<strong>sakvebwarmoeba</strong>Si farTod gavrcel<strong>da</strong> maTematikur-statistikuri modelebi,<br />

romelTa ZiriTad klass warmoadgens sawarmoo funqciebi. es funqciebi<br />

warmoadgens regresul models, romelic gamoxatavs mosavlianobis kavSirs<br />

warmoebis faqtorebTan, romlebsac ekuTvnis materialur-teqnikuri <strong>da</strong><br />

ekonomikuri resursebi, aseve agroklimaturi <strong>da</strong> nia<strong>da</strong>guri monacemebi.<br />

gamokvlevebSi mosavlianobis <strong>da</strong>sakavSireblad agroklimatur, nia<strong>da</strong>gur<br />

<strong>da</strong> agroteqnikur faqtorebTan gamoiyeneba funqciaTa sxva<strong>da</strong>sxva saxeebi.<br />

garkveuli teqnikuri potencialis mqone kulturis mosavlianobis<br />

<strong>da</strong>mokidebulebas garemo faqtorebze: sinaTleze, siTboze, tenianobaze, sakveb<br />

elementebze <strong>da</strong> a.S. (x 1, x 2, x 3 ................xn) - aqvs araxazobrivi, eqsperimentuli<br />

xasiaTi (nax. 1) <strong>da</strong> saerTo saxiT Rebulobs gantolebis Semdeg formas:<br />

y<br />

m = mn[1-e - F(X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , ..................., X n ) ]<br />

x 1, x 2, x 3 ........xn<br />

nax. 1. mosavlianobis <strong>da</strong>mokidebuleba garemo pirobebze<br />

naxazi<strong>da</strong>n <strong>da</strong> mocemuli gantolebi<strong>da</strong>n Cans, rom aRniSnuli faqtorebis<br />

dozebis gadidebasTan erTad matulobs mosavalianobac, magram garkveul<br />

zRvaramde, ris Semdeg maTi zr<strong>da</strong> ver uzrunvelyofs mosavlianobis zr<strong>da</strong>s <strong>da</strong><br />

zogjer SeiZleba mosavali kidevac Semcirdes (wyvetili mrudi). biologiuri<br />

procesebis aRwerisaTvis, romelTa sidide droSi garemo pirobebze<br />

<strong>da</strong>mokidebulebiT Rebulobs S-isebr magvar mrudis formas, ufro<br />

xelsayrelia logistikuri funqcia<br />

α<br />

m = 1+be-cx<br />

mosavalze sasuqebis moqmedebis Seswavlisas faqtiur monacemebTan karg<br />

miaxloebas iZlevian kvadratuli (m=b+bx+cx 2) <strong>da</strong> kuburi (m=α+bx+cx 2 +dx 3)<br />

funqciebi, sa<strong>da</strong>c α, b, c, d koeficientebia, x – garemos faqtori, agreTve

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