Tavi 4. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
Tavi 4. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
Tavi 4. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
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<strong>Tavi</strong> <strong>4.</strong> <strong>Kklimatis</strong> <strong>cvlileba</strong><br />
(reziume – dakabadondeba <strong>Tavi</strong>s satitulo gverdze)<br />
globaluri klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong> mniSvnelovan problemad dgas<br />
Tanamedrove msoflioSi. industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad atmosferoSi e.w.<br />
`saTburis gazebis~ gafrqveva da amiT gamowveuli “globaluri daTboba”<br />
ganapirobebs klimatis globaluri cvlilebis amJamad mimdinare process, rac<br />
sxvadasxva lokaluri gamovlinebebiT aisaxeba mTels msoflioSi.<br />
saqarTveloSi ukve vlindeba globaluri klimatis cvlilebis mavne<br />
Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi. gaxSirda bunebis eqstremaluri movlenebi, Seicvala klimaturi<br />
maxasiaTeblebi, rac aisaxeba bunebrivi resursebis xarisxze da, saboloo jamSi,<br />
ekonomikazec.<br />
saqarTvelo, rogorc gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis (gkcCk)<br />
mxare da misi kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana, valdebulia gaataros<br />
konvenciis principebi anu SeZlebisdagvarad gaataros RonisZiebebi saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiis Semcirebisa da klimatis cvlilebisadmi adaptaciis mizniT.<br />
1. Sesavali<br />
mokle informacia klimatis cvlilebis mizezebisa da Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Sesaxeb<br />
klimatis cvlilebis amJamindeli fenomeni sacnauri gaxda me-20 saukunis 70iani<br />
wlebidan, roca SemCneul iqna msoflio saSualo wliuri temperaturis<br />
mkveTri awevis tendencia da gaxSirebuli klimaturi katastrofebi. dReisTvis<br />
ukve mecnieruladaa dadasturebuli, rom klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong> namdvilad xdeba<br />
planetis masStabiT da gamoixateba saSualo temperaturis awevasa da amasTan<br />
dakavSirebiT naleqebis matebaSi, rac ukiduresad uaryofiTi formiT aisaxeba<br />
eqstremaluri movlenebis gaxSirebaSi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis mavne Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi mravalgvaria: myinvarebis dnoba mTebze<br />
da yinulis fenebis ganleva okeaneebSi, e.w. `sicxis talRebi~, gvalva, erTis<br />
mxriv, da Zlieri wvimebi, meore mxriv; aseve, okeanis donis aweva, Stormebis,<br />
wyaldidobebis, Rvarcofebis, mewyerebis, zvavebis, cunamis, sxvadasxva<br />
qariSxlebis gaZliereba da gaxSireba. klimatis Secvlis Sedegad icvleba<br />
buneba, ekosistemebi, romelTagan mravali verc axerxebs adaptacias da<br />
gadagvardeba; izrdeba adamianTa daavadebis, maT Soris, epidemiebis gavrcelebis<br />
riskic. `saTburis efeqtiT~ gamowveuli mavne Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi wlidan wlamde sul<br />
ufro met mravalferovnebasa da intensivobas avlens, rac amZafrebs problemas<br />
da aucilebels xdis mis saswrafod mogvarebas.<br />
mecnieruli prognozis Tanaxmad, 21-e saukunis bolosaTvis globaluri<br />
saSualo temperatura, msoflios ganviTarebis sxvadasxva scenarebis mixedviT,<br />
moimatebs 1,4-idan 5,8 0 C-mde, xolo zRvis done, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, aiwevs 9dan<br />
88 sm-mde, rac gaamZafrebs bunebriv kataklizmebs mTel msoflioSi.<br />
ESeicvleba da gadagvardeba ekosistemebi, zogierTi maTgani saerTod gaqreba;<br />
Seicvleba cxovelTa, mcenareTa saxeobebis gavrcelebis are, zogi maTgani<br />
saerTod gaqreba; gaCndeba axali saxeobebi, wyliT daifareba zogierTi<br />
kunZuli, gaZneldeba sakvebis mopoveba, radgan zogan Semcirdeba wylis<br />
resursebi, rac gazrdis ariduli miwebis farTobs, zogan ki piriqiT _ xSiri<br />
wyaldidobebi da wyalmovardnebi Seamcirebs niadagis sasoflo-sameurneo<br />
vargisianobas. mravali iseTi saSiSroeba iCens Tavs, risi winaswarmetyvelebac<br />
dReisaTvis SeuZlebelia.<br />
aseTi momavlis <strong>Tavi</strong>dan asacileblad aucilebelia daTbobis procesis<br />
SeCereba, rac moiTxovs adeqvatur Zalisxmevas globalur doneze: adamianis
cxovrebisa da saqmianobis wesis mniSvnelovan gardaqmnas, qveynebis ekonomikuri<br />
politikis ekologiurad „damzogav“ teqnologiebze orientacias.<br />
iTvleba, rom kacobriobis istoriaSi dafiqsirebuli globaluri klimatis<br />
cvlilebis yvela periodisagan gansxvavebiT, Tanamedrove klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong><br />
gamowveulia adamianis sawarmoo saqmianobiT da dakavSirebulia intensiur<br />
industrializaciasTan. kerZod, industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad atmosferoSi<br />
gamoyofili airebi cvlis atmosferos Semad<strong>ge</strong>nlobas da xels uSlis dedamiwis<br />
zedapiridan siTbos kargvas. am airebs „saTburis gazebi“ ewodebaT. isini<br />
moicaven naxSirorJangs, meTans, azotis qveJangs da ramdenime sxva, arapirdapiri<br />
moqmedebis gazs.<br />
გაზი სიცოცხლის–<br />
უნარიანობა<br />
(წლები)<br />
CO2 ცვლადი<br />
(50-200)<br />
გლობალური დათბობის<br />
პოტენციალი (დროითი<br />
ინტერვალი 100 წელი)<br />
CH4 12±3 21<br />
N2O 120 310<br />
HFCs<br />
HFC-23 264 11700<br />
HFC-32 5,6 650<br />
HFC-125 32,6 2800<br />
HFC-134 10,6 1300<br />
HFC-143 48,3 3800<br />
HFC-152 1,5 140<br />
HFC-227 36,5 2900<br />
HFC-236 209 6300<br />
HFC-245 6,6 560<br />
PFCs<br />
CF4 50000 6500<br />
C2F6 10000 9200<br />
C3F8 2600 7000<br />
C4F10 2600 7000<br />
1<br />
saTburis gazi eqvsia, esenia: naxSirorJangi<br />
(CO2), meTani (CH4), azotis qveJangi (N2O),<br />
hidroftornaxSirbadebi (HFCs), perftornax-<br />
Sirbadebi (PFCs) da ftorosulfatebi (SF6). es<br />
gazebi STanTqaven dedamiwidan atmosferoSi<br />
areklil infrawiTel gamosxivebas da<br />
abruneben mas dedamiwaze, rac iwvevs e.w.<br />
„saTburis efeqts“ da temperaturis matebas<br />
dedamiwaze.<br />
saTburis gazebis mTliani raodenobis 63%-ს<br />
naxSirorJangi Sead<strong>ge</strong>ns, Semdeg modis meTani<br />
(24%), azotis qveJangi (10%) da sxva gazebi (3<br />
%), Tumca am gazebis mier „saTburis efeqtSi“<br />
Setanili wili damokidebulia ara marto maT<br />
raodenobaze, aramed aseve maT siTbur<br />
potencialzec.<br />
koeficients, romelic gamoxatavs ama Tu im<br />
gazis siTburi efeqtis siZlieres<br />
naxSirorJangTan SefardebiT, globaluri<br />
daTbobis potenciali (GWP) ewodeba.<br />
am koeficientis gaTvaliswinebiT saTburis<br />
gazebis saerTo emisia gadaiyvaneba da izomeba<br />
naxSirorJangis ekvivalentebSi.<br />
K<br />
cxrili 1: saTburis gazebis daxasiaTeba mdgradobisa da globaluri daTbobis<br />
potencialis mixedviT.<br />
gansakuTrebiT didia wiaRiseuli sawvavis (naxSiri, navTobi, gazi)<br />
moxmarebis roli saTburis gazebis gafrqvevaSi. maTi moxmareba mkveTrad<br />
gaizarda sayovelTao industrializaciisa da transportis swrafi ganviTarebis<br />
kvaldakval, me-20 saukunis bolo aTwleulebSi, da dRemde grZeldeba.
diagrama 1. naxSirbadis emisiis dinamika moxmarebuli wiaRiseuli sawvavidan. wyaro:<br />
naxSirorJangis informaciis analizis centri (CDIAC),<br />
http://cdiac.esd.oml.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm<br />
SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi gadaangariSebulia gafrqveuli naxSirbadis tonebSi.<br />
naxSirorJangis emisiebis SefasebisaTvis es mniSvnelobebi unda gamravldes 44/12-ze.<br />
saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis meti wili modioda ganviTarebul<br />
industriul qveynebze, romelTac ekisrebaT istoriuli pasuxism<strong>ge</strong>bloba<br />
klimatis mimdinare cvlilebebsa da mis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bze. aRsaniSnavia, rom dRiTidRe<br />
icvleba ganviTarebadi da ganviTarebuli qveynebis proporcia saTburis gazebis<br />
msoflio emisiebSi da sul ufro da ufro izrdeba ganviTarebadi qveynebis<br />
wili, rac amJamad raodenobiT aWarbebs kidec ganviTarebuli qveynebisas.<br />
diagrama 2. ganviTarebuli da ganviTarebadi qveynebis wilis prognostirebuli dinamika<br />
naxSirorJangis emisiaSi, wyaro: aSS ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis departamenti, 2007.<br />
SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi naCvenebia naxSirorJangis tonebSi.
klimatis cvlilebis fenomenis globaluri xasiaTidan gamomdinare<br />
aucilebeli gaxda misi SeCerebisaTvis kacobriobis Zalisxmevis gaerTianeba.<br />
1988 wels msoflios wamyvani mecnierebisagan Seiqmna gaeros klimatis<br />
cvlilebis mTavrobaTaSorisi sabWo (Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Chan<strong>ge</strong> -<br />
IPCC), romlis mizania Seafasos adamianis saqmianobiT gamowveuli klimatis<br />
cvlilebis riski, misi potenciuri Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi, am Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Serbilebisa da<br />
klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan adaptaciis gzebi. man Seiswavla problema da ganacxada<br />
globaluri temperaturis matebis Sesaxeb saTburis gazebis atmosferoSi<br />
gafrqvevis gamo, ris Semdegac daiwyo saerTaSoriso RonisZiebebis gatareba am<br />
gafrqvevebis SemcirebisTvis. 1992 wels rio-de-JaneiroSi xeli moewera gaeros<br />
klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencias (UNFCCC-gkcCk), romelSic aisaxa<br />
globaluri klimatis cvlilebis problema da masTan brZolis principebi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencia, romelsac amJamad ukve 192 qveyana, maT<br />
Soris saqarTveloc, miuerTda, ayalibebs saerTaSoriso qmedebebis mTavar<br />
principebs, rom qveynebi win unda aRudgnen klimatis cvlilebis problemas<br />
maTi valdebulebebis da SesaZleblobebis Sesabamisad da ganviTarebulma<br />
qveynebma unda ikisron mTavari roli am problemis gadawyvetaSi. konvencia<br />
Qxelmomwer mxare-qveynebs (ganviTarebuls da ganviTarebads) gansxvaveul<br />
valdebulebebs usaxavs, maTi ganviTarebis donis Sesabamisad. es gansxvaveba<br />
aisaxeba konvenciis kiotos protokolSic, romelic aregulirebs saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiis SemcirebasTan dakavSirebul ekonomikur aspeqtebs. kerZod, am<br />
protokoliT gansazRvrulia saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis raodenobrivi<br />
valdebulebebi ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis da aseve gansazRvrulia<br />
meqanizmebi (e.w. „kiotos protokolis moqnili meqanizmebi“) am valdebulebebis<br />
Sesrulebis gasaadvileblad.<br />
kiotos moqnili meqanizmebidan saqarTveloSi daSvebulia mxolod sufTa<br />
ganviTarebis meqanizmi (sgm), rac niSnavs, rom ganviTarebul qveynebs ufleba<br />
aqvT <strong>Tavi</strong>anTi valdebulebebis nawili ganviTarebad qveyanaSi Seasrulon ufro<br />
sufTa, naklebi saTburis gazebis gamfrqvevi teqnologiebis danergvis gziT. Aam<br />
meqanizmis farglebSi saqarTveloSi mimdinareobs seriozuli muSaoba saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiis Semcirebis SesaZlo sferoebis gamovlenis, proeqtebis<br />
momzadebisa da ganxorcielebis TvalsazrisiT. saTburis gazebis emisiis<br />
Semcirebis perspeqtiuli sferoebia<br />
ener<strong>ge</strong>tika, transporti, samrewvelo<br />
procesebi (azotis warmoeba, cementis<br />
warmoeba, metalurgiuli warmoebebi),<br />
soflis meurneoba, narCenebis<br />
gadamuSaveba.<br />
2. klimatis cvlilebis gamovlineba<br />
saqarTveloSi<br />
axlaxan Catarebulma kvlevebma<br />
(`saqarTvelos II erovnuli angariSi<br />
gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCokonvenciisadmi~,<br />
2009) gamoavlina<br />
ZiriTadi klimaturi parametrebis<br />
(haeris saSualo da eqstremaluri<br />
temperatura, saSualo wliuri<br />
naleqebi, fardobiTi tenianoba,<br />
klimatur procesebze dakvirvebisaTvis<br />
gamoiyeneba specialuri teqnikuri<br />
saSualebebiT aRWurvili hidrometeorologiuri<br />
sadgurebi, romlebic awarmoeben<br />
dakvirvebebs da iReben informacias<br />
klimaturi parametrebis (temperatura,<br />
naleqebi, tenianoba da sxv.) Sesaxeb qveynis<br />
sxvadasxva nawilSi. aRebuli informacia<br />
ikribeba, sistematizirdeba da muSavdeba<br />
hidrometeorologiur centrSi. arsebuli<br />
mravalwliani monacemebis analizis<br />
safuZvelze SesaZloa gakeTdes prognozebi<br />
momavali monacemebis Sesaxeb.<br />
bolo ocwleulSi saqarTveloSi hidrometeorologiuri<br />
sadgurebis ricxvi<br />
mkveTrad Semcirda, ris gamoc Semcirebulia<br />
miRebul monacemTa sizustec. hidrometeorologiuri<br />
centris funqciebs amJamad<br />
asrulebs garemos dacvis erovnuli<br />
saa<strong>ge</strong>nto, romelic struqturulad Sedis<br />
saqarTvelos garemos dacvisa da bunebrivi<br />
resursebis saministroSi da mis saqveuwyebo<br />
dawesebulebas warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns. am da sxva<br />
statistikuri informaciis safuZvelze<br />
tardeba kvlevebi klimatis amJamindeli da<br />
momavali mdgomareobis Sesaxeb.
datenianebis reJimi, qari) <strong>cvlileba</strong> saqarTvelos mTel teritoriaze. kerZod,<br />
meteorologiuri sadgurebis statistikurma monacemebma aCvena haeris saSualo<br />
da eqstremaluri temperaturis zrda da naleqebis saSualo wliuri jamisa da<br />
reJimis <strong>cvlileba</strong> rogorc dasavleT, ise aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi.<br />
diagrama 3. haeris temperaturis saSualo mniSvnelobebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> saqarTveloSi<br />
(Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 ww-is 60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).<br />
diagrama <strong>4.</strong> naleqTa saSualo wliuri jamebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> (Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 ww-is<br />
60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).<br />
amave klimaturi parametrebis prognozi gviCvenebs, rom momavalSi es<br />
cvlilebebi kidev ufro dramatul xasiaTs miiRebs. modelirebis gamoyenebiT<br />
miRebuli temperaturisa da naleqTa jamebis prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis<br />
dasavleT da aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi mocemulia 5-8 diagramebze.
diagrama 5. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi 2100<br />
wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis mixedviT.<br />
diagrama 6. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.<br />
diagrama 7. naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.
diagrama 8: naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.<br />
ukanasknel xanebSi, rogorc statistika mowmobs, saqarTveloSi mkveTrad<br />
gaxSirda bunebrivi kataklizmebi, romlebic damaxasiaTebelia klimatis<br />
cvlilebisaTvis. Cveulebriv movlenad iqca Zlieri wvimebi, <strong>Tavi</strong>si dramatuli<br />
Sede<strong>ge</strong>biT; gaxSirda mewyerebi, wyalmovardnebi, zvavebi, mdinareebis<br />
kalapotidan gadmosvla, qarborbalebi. gamovlinda sezonurobis <strong>cvlileba</strong>.<br />
ramdenime adgilas gamoikveTa gaudabnoebis procesi. jerjerobiT Seswavlili<br />
ar aris am movlenebis gamomwvevi konkretuli, qveynisaTvis specifikuri<br />
mizezebi. saqarTveloSi klimatis aseT <strong>cvlileba</strong>s, savaraudod, ganapirobebs<br />
ekosistemebis mravalferovneba da qveynis reliefi – maRali mTebi da wylis<br />
uxvi resursebi, aseve zRvis siaxlove.<br />
aRniSnuli klimaturi cvlilebebisa da stiqiuri movlenebis mavne<br />
Sede<strong>ge</strong>bs amZafrebs ener<strong>ge</strong>tikuli krizisis periodSi (1990-iani wlebi) gakafuli<br />
tyeebi da qarsacavebi, wylis resursebis marTvis (napirsamagri, sadrenaJo,<br />
sairigacio) sistemebis gaumarTaoba, rac aisaxeba niadagis eroziaze. es ki<br />
amcirebs sasoflo-sameurneo savargulebis farTobebsa da maT nayofierebas.<br />
gauTvaliswinebeli stiqiuri movlenebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis likvidaciisaTvis<br />
aucilebeli xdeba sul ufro meti fuladi saxsrebis daxarjva, rac mZime<br />
tvirTad awveba qveynis ekonomikas.<br />
dakvirvebebma da kvlevebma gamoavlina klimatis cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bisadmi<br />
gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi saqarTveloSi. esenia: Savi zRvis sanapiro<br />
zoli, sadac aweulia zRvis done da momatebulia Stormuli modenebis sixSire<br />
da simZlavre, rasac emateba foTis mimdebare teritoriaze (gansakuTrebiT) md.<br />
rionis adidebiT gamowveuli problemebi; qvemo svaneTis regioni (lentexis<br />
raioni), sadac adgili aqvs niadagis erozias da gaxSirebulia stiqiuri<br />
movlenebi (wyalmovardnebi, mewyerebi, zvavebi, didTovloba, wyaldidoba);<br />
dedofliswyaros regioni, sadac mimdinareobs gaudabnoebis procesi. am sami<br />
regionis amJamindeli da saprognozo monacemebis analizma aCvena maTi<br />
gansakuTrebuli mgrZnobiaroba klimatis cvlilebis mimdinare procesis mimarT,<br />
rac aucileblad moiTxovs gansakuTrebuli kontrzomebis miRebas.
diagrama 9: saSualo temperaturebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-Si<br />
(Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli<br />
maCveneblebi).<br />
diagrama 10. naleqebis wliuri jamis <strong>cvlileba</strong> prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-Si<br />
(Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli<br />
maCveneblebi).<br />
Savi zRvis sanapiro zoli. zRvis sanapiro zoli yvelgan, mTel<br />
msoflioSi amJRavnebs gansakuTrebul mgrZnobiarobas klimatis cvlilebis<br />
mavne zegavlenis mimarT da am mxriv gamonakliss arc saqarTvelos<br />
SavizRvispireTi warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns, sadac sanapiro zolis mTel sigrZeze SeiniSneba<br />
zRvis donis aweva xmeleTTan SedarebiT, Stormebis gaxSireba da gaZliereba,<br />
zRvaSi mdinareebis Camonatanis gazrda da zRvis zedapiruli wylebis<br />
temperaturis <strong>cvlileba</strong>. gansakuTrebiT mwvave mdgomareobaa md. rionis<br />
deltaSi, q. foTTan, sadac aris ormagi problema (Seqmnili mdinaris ori<br />
totiT): erTi mxriv, zRvis SemoWra da xmeleTis mitaceba da, meore mxriv,<br />
mdinaris SeWra zRvaSi da iq naSalis Catana. uaxlesi kvlevebi (saqarTvelos II<br />
erovnuli angariSi kcCk-isadmi, 2009) aCvenebs, rom Savi zRvis sanapiro zona<br />
warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns saqarTveloSi amJamad yvelaze mowyvlad ekosistemas klimatis
cvlilebisadmi da modelirebuli prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis kidev ufro<br />
savalalo suraTs gvixatavs.<br />
diagrama 11. sxvadasxva siZlieris Stormebis jamuri raodenobis da wilis dinamika<br />
saqarTvelos SavizRvispireTSi.<br />
qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni). aq gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia naleqebis<br />
raodenobis momateba (dRiurma jamma 30 mm-s gadaaWarba). Secvlilia TviT<br />
naleqebis mosvlis reJimi _ ufro xSiri da uxvia, magram ufro moklexniani.<br />
amis Sedegia gaxSirebuli da gaZlierebuli wyaldidobebi, zvavebi, mewyrebi da<br />
Rvarcofebi. niadagis gaZlierebuli erozia, rasac xels uwyobs gaCexili<br />
tyeebic, did zarals ayenebs raionis ekonomikas da iwvevs migraciis tendencias.<br />
diagrama 12. wyaldidobebis maxasiaTeblebi md. cxeniswylis auzSi.<br />
diagrama 13. mewyerebis dinamika lentexis raionis dazianebul adgilebSi, 1980-1998.
dedofliswyaros raioni. klimatis cvlilebis mavne gavlena gamoixateba<br />
gvalvis gaxSirebaSi, wylis resursebis daklebasa da miwis degradaciaSi.<br />
moSlili qarsacavi zoli da irigaciis sistema (me-20 saukunis bolos,<br />
politikur-ekonomikuri krizisis dros) damatebiT problemebs uqmnis soflis<br />
meurneobisaTvis am Zalian mniSvnelovani regionis ekonomikur sar<strong>ge</strong>blianobas.<br />
diagrama 1<strong>4.</strong> gvalvis dinamika dedofliswyaros raionSi.<br />
diagrama 15. wylis danaklisi soflis meurneobaSi<br />
SeniSvna: wylis danaklisi Sefasebulia wylis resursebis marTvis WEAP modeliT<br />
SavizRvispireTis, qvemo svaneTisa da dedofliswyaros regionebis<br />
aRniSnuli problemebis garda, saqarTveloSi, savaraudod, arsebobs kidev sxva<br />
regionebi da sferoebi, sadac jer kidev ar aris Seswavlili klimatis<br />
cvlilebis zegavlena. aq igulisxmeba mdinareebis adidebasTan dakavSirebuli<br />
gaxSirebuli wyaldidobebi, rac xdeba TiTqmis yvela raionSi, myinvarebis<br />
dnobasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi da a.S., rac uaxloes momavalSi<br />
aucileblad moiTxovs gamokvlevas.<br />
3. saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi<br />
saqarTveloში saTburis gazebis emisiebi DZlier Semcirda 90-ian wlebSi.<br />
es gamowveuli iyo politikuri ZvrebiT da ekonomikis moSliT. gansakuTrebiT<br />
mniSvnelovani gavlena iqonia ener<strong>ge</strong>tikulma krizisma, ramac mkveTrad Seamcira<br />
wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmareba, Tumca imavdroulad Seaferxa mrewvelobis (da<br />
saerTod ekonomikis) ganviTarebac. Aamis Sedegad, saqarTvelos saTburis<br />
gazebis emisia, 1990 wlis donesTan SedarebiT, mkveTrad daeca da miuxedavad<br />
ekonomikis gamococxlebisa da garkveuli aRmavlobisa 2003 wlis Semdeg,<br />
dRemde ver miaRwia Zvel maCveneblebs.
diagrama 16. saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis emisiebis trendi 1990-2006 ww.<br />
diagrama 17: saTburis gazebis emisiebi 1990-2006 ww. seqtorebis mixedviT.<br />
SeniSvna: am da momdevno diagramebze warmod<strong>ge</strong>nili seqtorebis klasifikacia miyveba saTburis gazebis<br />
emisiebis aRricxvisas miRebul saxelmZRvanelo miTiTebebs, romlis mixedviTac ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtori<br />
moicavs wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmarebis mTel sferos, transportis CaTvliT, xolo narCenebis seqtori –<br />
nagavsayrelebsa da Camdinare wylebs, romelTaganac warmoiSoba saTburis gazebi.<br />
specifikuria tyeebis wili saTburi airebis emisiaSi: xeebis asakidan da<br />
saxeobidan gamomdinare tye jamurad SeiZleba iyos saTburis gazebis an<br />
gamfrqvevi, an STamnTqmeli. 2000 wlidan saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis<br />
gafrqvevasa da Sefaseba-aRricxvaSi gaTvaliswinebulia tyis es specifika.<br />
Sefasebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi warmod<strong>ge</strong>nilia me-18 diagramaze.
diagrama 18. saTburis gazebis emisiebi 2000-2006 wlebSi seqtorebis mixedviT (tyeebis CaTvliT).<br />
diagramebidan Cans, rom ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtori saqarTveloSi, sxva qveynebis<br />
msgavsad, wamyvania saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis TvalsazrisiT. miuxedavad<br />
mniSvnelovani dasustebisa 1990-iani wlebis politikuri kataklizmebis Semdeg,<br />
ener<strong>ge</strong>tika amJamad saqarTveloSi aRmavlobis gzazea da, Sesabamisad, saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiebic zrdis tendencias amJRavnebs. ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtoridan<br />
gansakuTrebiT didi emitori transportis qveseqtoria. qvemoT moyvanili<br />
diagrama asaxavs am dargidan saTburis gazebis emisiebis tendencias 1990-idan<br />
2006 wlamde.<br />
diagrama 19. saTburis gazebis emisiebis dinamika transportis seqtoridan.<br />
saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi Zalian mcirea<br />
da 0.01 %-ze naklebs Sead<strong>ge</strong>ns. aqve aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelo mzardi<br />
ekonomikis qveyanaa da Tu qveyanaSi ar gatardeba specialuri RonisZiebebi,<br />
ekonomikis zrdasTan erTad misi saTburis gazebis emisiebis wilic savaraudod<br />
gaizrdeba. yvelaze mniSvnelovani resursebi saTburis gazebis emisiebis<br />
Sesamcireblad aris wiaRiseuli sawvavis ganaxlebadi energoresursebiT
Canacvleba; transportis seqtorSi, erTis mxriv, sawvavis Canacvleba (benzinisa<br />
da dizelis sawvavis Secvla gaziT, romelsac naklebi globaluri daTbobis<br />
potenciali aqvs) da, meores mxriv, satransporto sqemebis gardaqmna; axali<br />
teqnologiebis Semotana warmoebaSi; energodamzogavi mSenebloba, sxvadasxva<br />
warmoebis narCeni energiebis (siTbos) gamoyeneba da sxv. gansakuTrebul<br />
SesaZleblobas saTburis gazebis emisiebis Sesamcireblad iZleva sufTa<br />
ganviTarebis meqanizmi.<br />
garda saTburis gazebis emisiebis Semcirebisa, klimatis cvlilebis<br />
konvencia iTvaliswinebs klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan da mis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bTan adaptaciis<br />
RonisZiebebis gatarebis aucileblobasac. rogorc saqarTveloSi, ise msoflios<br />
mraval qveyanaSi mwvaved dgas klimatis mimdinare cvlilebiT gamowveuli<br />
zianis aRd<strong>ge</strong>nisa da misadmi medegobis aRd<strong>ge</strong>nis RonisZiebebis saswrafod<br />
gatarebis aucilebloba. rogorc wesi, aseTi RonisZiebebi moiTxovs<br />
mniSvnelovan xarjebs. gansakuTrebiT mowyvladi regionebis, seqtorebisa da<br />
ekosistemebis drouli gamovlena da Sesabamisi saadaptacio RonisZiebebis<br />
gansazRvra, maTTvis aucilebeli xarjebis gamoTvlasa da moZiebasTan erTad,<br />
warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns kidev erT, Zalian mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas klimatis cvlilebis<br />
sferoSi. saqarTvelos II erovnul SetyobinebaSi gaeros klimatis cvlilebis<br />
CarCo-konvenciis mimarT (2009) ganisazRvra aseTi regionebi (SavizRvispireTi,<br />
dedofliswyaro da qvemo svaneTi) da SemuSavda ramdenime saproeqto winadadeba<br />
maTi adaptaciisaTvis, Sesabamis xarjTaRricxvasTan erTad.<br />
K<br />
<strong>4.</strong> ZiriTadi gamowvevebi<br />
saqarTveloSi klimatis globaluri cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Seswavlaanalizma<br />
gamoavlina klimaturi parametrebis (saSualo wliuri, maqsimaluri da<br />
minimaluri temperatura, naleqTa saSualo wliuri jami da naleqebis mosvlis<br />
reJimi) sagrZnobi cvlilebebi me-20 s-is dasawyisidan dRemde.Ees cvlilebebi<br />
aisaxeba sxvadasxva ekosistemis maxasiaTeblebze, maT xarisxobriv degradaciaze,<br />
ekonomikuri efeqtianobis Semcirebaze. saqarTveloSi iseve, rogorc mTel<br />
msoflioSi, aRiniSneba eqstremaluri klimaturi movlenebis gaxSireba<br />
(Stormebi, qariSxlebi, wyaldidobebi, zvavebi, mewyerebi, siTburi talRebi), rac<br />
didwilad ukavSirdeba klimatis cvlilebis process.<br />
klimatis globaluri cvlilebis lokaluri Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Seswavlam<br />
saqarTveloSi gamoavlina gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi: Savi zRvis<br />
sanapiro zoli, dedofliswyaros regioni da qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni),<br />
sadac saWiroa dauyovnebeli saadaptacio RonisZiebebi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis simwvavidan gamomdinare saqarTvelom<br />
klimatis cvlilebis politikis sferoSi qveynis prioritetul mimarTulebad<br />
aRiara klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sa da mis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bTan adaptacia. mimdinareobs<br />
seriozuli muSaoba erovnuli saadaptacio samoqmedo <strong>ge</strong>gmis Sesaqmnelad, rac<br />
qveyanas daexmareba gasatarebeli RonisZiebebis organizebasa da saxsrebis<br />
mozidvaSi. aseTi <strong>ge</strong>gmis Seqmna Zalian Sromatevadi samuSaoa da moiTxovs<br />
mravalmxriv Zalisxmevas mecnieruli, ekonomikuri, finansuri da teqnikuri<br />
potencialis mobilizebisa da gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT. paralelurad<br />
mimdinareobs saerTaSoriso (maT Soris, gkcCk-is farglebSi arsebuli)<br />
finansuri meqanizmebis (pirvel rigSi, kiotos protokolTan arsebuli<br />
adaptaciis fondis) gamoyenebis SesaZleblobebis Seswavla.<br />
rac Seexeba klimatis cvlilebis Serbilebis mimarTulebas, miuxedavad<br />
saTburis gazebis mcire emisiisa, saqarTvelo, rogorc gkcCk-is mxare da misi<br />
kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana, apirebs gaataros RonisZiebebi am emisiebis<br />
Sesamcirebladac. es gadawyvetileba aisaxa saqarTvelos mier 2009 wlis
dekemberSi kopenha<strong>ge</strong>nSi miRebul dokumentTan (e.w. `kopenha<strong>ge</strong>nis akordi~)<br />
mierTebis oficialur ganacxadSic. saTburis gazebis emisiis Sesamcireblad<br />
saqarTvelo prioritetulad miiCnevs sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmis sruli<br />
siZlieriT amoqmedebas uaxloes sam weliwadSi (2012 wlamde, roca iwureba<br />
kiotos protokoliT gaTvaliswinebuli pirveli savaldebulo periodi). amJamad<br />
saqarTveloSi registrirebulia sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmis 2 proeqti,<br />
ramdenime ki damuSavebis procesSia. kidev erTi ZiriTadi mimarTuleba am<br />
kuTxiT aris saTburis gazebis Semcirebis erovnuli <strong>ge</strong>gmis SemuSaveba, rac<br />
<strong>ge</strong>gmiur CarCoebSi moaqcevs saTburis gazebis Semcirebis RoniZiebebs.<br />
2010 wlis dekemberSi gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis<br />
mxareTa Sexvedram unda gadawyvitos saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis<br />
mimarTulebiT maTi raodenobrivi valdebulebebis da klimatis cvlilebis<br />
sferoSi gasatarebeli momavali msoflio politikis sakiTxebi. kiotos<br />
protokolis Semcvleli xelSekrulebis Sinaarsze didadaa damokidebuli<br />
wevri-qveynebis Semdgomi erovnuli politikis mimarTulebebic da es<br />
xelSekruleba mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs saqarTvelos 2012 wlis Semdgom<br />
politikas klimatis cvlilebis sferoSi.<br />
gamoyenebuli literatura:<br />
1. saqarTvelos meore erovnuli Setyobineba klimatis cvlilebis CarCo<br />
konvenciisaTvis, Tbilisi, 2009<br />
2. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report , 2007<br />
3. saqarTvelos mTavrobis pozicia klimatis cvlilebis politikis Sesaxeb 2010-2012<br />
ww.<br />
<strong>4.</strong> Association of Georgia with the Copenha<strong>ge</strong>n Accord (oficialuri werili danarTiT emisiebis<br />
Semcirebis Sesaxeb)
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