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22 MARKET TRENDS Another Year of susta International arrivals exceed 1 billion in 2012 and look set for further International tourist arrivals grew by an estimated 4% in 2012, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), topping the magic 1 billion mark for the first time ever, at 1,035 million – 39 million more than in 2011. The growth was led for the second consecutive year by Asia Pacific (+7%), ahead of Africa (+6%), the Americas (+4%) and Europe (+3%). The only region to suffer a decline in arrivals was the Middle East (-5%), according to preliminary data, although the final result could be quite different as significant data gaps are progressively filled (See Figure 1 and 2). In line with forecasts released by UNWTO at the start of the year, emerging markets outpaced advanced economies in terms of arrivals growth, but the difference was again quite modest, as in 2011. This was no doubt due to the fact that, in times of economic difficulties, people tend to travel to destinations closer to home. And this has indeed been the case with the world’s leading tourism markets – the majority of which from advanced economies – over the past couple of years. While not all countries have reported results for the last few months of 2012, demand appears to have been sustained throughout the year, with a stronger than expected fourth quarter – notably for the advanced economies. The strongest month was March (+6%) and the weakest July (+1%) – averages which of course mask sharply differing trends from one region and sub-region to another. iNterNatioNaL touriSm receiptS It is still too early for a reliable assessment of trends in international tourism receipts, but preliminary indications suggest that the growth is closely in line with that of arrivals. According to UNWTO, of the 119 destinations that have reported tourism receipts data for at least 6-9 months of 2012, 99 countries (83%) saw growth in earnings, of which 41 double-digit growth, while only 20 suffered declines. Among the world’s top 10 destinations, the star performers in terms of receipts growth were the United States (number 1 destination in the overall ranking, +10%) and Hong Kong (in 10th place with +16%). Germany (6 th ) enjoyed 6% growth in receipts, as did the United Kingdom (8 th ), due in no small part to London’s hosting of the 2012 Summer Olympics and the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee. Spain (2 nd ), France (3 rd ), Italy (5 th ) and Australia (9 th ), meanwhile, recorded between 1% and 4% growth. And China (4 th ) reported a slight decrease (-1%). Short-term proSpectS The outlook for world economic growth in ITB BERLIN NEWS • Wednesday 27 th February 2013

MARKET TRENDS 23 ined Growth growth in 2013 UNWTO Is FOrECAsTING AN INCrEAsE IN INTErNATIONAL TOUrIsT ArrIVALs OF BETWEEN 3-4% OVErALL. 2013 is significantly brighter than was the case 12 months ago, according to the latest forecasts from Oxford Economics. 2012 began with significant risk of renewed recession across a number of major economies and, although progress throughout 2012 was bumpy, these event risks have diminished. A year ago, financial market strains, centred in the eurozone, saw stock markets in the main advanced and emerging countries 10- 20% down on the year – weighing on business and consumer confidence. Today, however, stock markets are 10-25% higher than a year before in the same economies. This turnaround has resulted mostly from key risks – primarily of a eurozone breakup and a Chinese hard landing – diminishing substantially during the year. Event risk has been further reduced by a deal in the USA in early 2013 to avert a ‘fiscal cliff’. to growth are starting to emerge, especially in the USA. Thanks to this improved global economic outlook, prospects for tourism remain generally bright for 2013. UNWTO is forecasting an increase in international tourist arrivals of between 3-4% overall.This in line with its long-term outlook Tourism Towards 2030, as well as with industry analysis. Asia Pacific should continue to lead the field (+5% to +6%), driven mainly by continued strong intraregional demand. Africa, in second place, is expected to see international arrivals grow by 4% to 6% in 2013. North Africa still has scope for further recovery in arrivals, while sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to see sustained growth. In the Americas (+3% to +4%), growth is projected to be around the world average, with FIGURE 2 Central and South America somewhat stronger and North America somewhat weaker, and the Caribbean in between. Growth in Europe is expected at 2% to 3%. UNWTO says that trends FiGure 1 in the Middle East are the hardest to forecast due to “the volatile environment and widely varying trends across countries”. For this reason growth in 2013 is projected in a rather wider range of 0% to 5%. However, BREakDoWN of INTERNaTIoNaL ToURIST aRRIVaLS WoRLDWIDE BY DESTINaTIoN REgIoN, 2012 (mn arrivals*, % share) Asia Pacific 233mm 22% * Total cumulative arrivals in the countries of each region Europe 535mm 52% INTERNaTIoNaL ToURIST aRRIVaLS, 2009-12 (% annual change) 15 10 5 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 as some countries continue to recover from the recent conflicts, and others continue to push ahead in the development of their tourism industries, it still expects the region’s growth to be positive in 2013. Americas 162mm 16% Middle East 53mm 5% Africa 53mm 5% Source: World Tourism Barometer, Jan 2013, World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) The event risks that dominated 2012 are now being replaced by a more normal pattern of macroeconomic risks – and a more balanced one. Indeed, upside risks -5 -10 World Europe Asia Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Source: World Tourism Barometer, Jan 2013, UNWTO ITB BERLIN NEWS • Wednesday 27 th February 2013

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