PROBLEMS OF GEOCOSMOS

Proceedings of the 7th International Conference "Problems of Geocosmos" (St. Petersburg, Russia, 26-30 May 2008)
We will proceed from the assumption that average amplitude of fluctuations is proportional to
fluctuations describe by Gaussian-distributed value � t ( 0;
D)
(details see in [9]). Then
N and
d N
dt
N
� � � � �
� ( t)
t
N .
In this case probability density will have on of two forms:
R
It follows that the solution of the stochastic equation for N will have the similar form. The appearance of
local minimum in aftershocks distribution shows that exponential decay of aftershocks is the least probable
event. The most probable should be jumps (jerks) of aftershocks. Thus overshoots of N are the result of
stochastic relaxation. Just stochasticity of relaxation process leads to appearance of «long tail» in aftershock
distribution. The reorganization of relaxation process is an example of noise-induced transitions.
It is clear that forshocks distribution should also have jumps. In fact we observe just such behaviour (see
the picture above).
7. PROSPECTS. The consistent examination of the DD-scenario has led us to investigation of the role
of surface tension variations in earthquakes generation process. Prospects are not in the future development
of DD-model but in integration of DD-model with alternative models of earthquake generation process in
which diffusion of fluids is not considered as the main factor - dry dilatancy models and stick-slip models.
The integration should be based on the Gibbs thermodynamic theory. The basis of the Gibbs theory of
capillarity is the concepts of discontinuity surface and surface tension. The Gibbs energy can change not only
due to surface area variations but also due to internal fluctuations of surface tension. Thus the problem is to
investigate noise-induced transitions in thermodynamic systems.
References.
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Conn. Acad., v. 3, p. 343.
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803-809.
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