A Predictive Model of User Equipage Costs for Future Air ... - Mitre

1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose
As part of efforts to improve the efficiency and capacity of the NAS, many new technological
solutions are considered. Most of these technologies require the addition or modification of
equipment not only on the ground, but also in the aircraft that operate in the NAS. Since it is
increasingly difficult to justify a mandate for forced aircraft equipage, the success of these
technological solutions often depends upon the aircraft owner/operators to voluntarily equip their
aircraft.
Before implementing a technological solution, it is prudent to analyze the solution’s costs and
probabilities for success. In the past, much attention has been paid to the ground infrastructure
costs of new programs, but the cost to the aircraft owner/operators has not always been
completely understood. If these aircraft costs are too high, the owner/operators may not equip
their aircraft and the program might not succeed.
This paper presents a methodology that can be used to estimate the future user equipage costs for
future air traffic services and capabilities. Two examples are presented that analyze Automatic
Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) equipage costs for the applications of broadcast
surveillance and full cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) operational procedures.
However, a similar methodology may be used for numerous other technological solutions,
including navigation and communications.
1.2 Background
MITRE’s Center For Advanced Aviation System Development (CAASD) is often requested to
provide estimates of the cost to implement varying technologies at differing points in the future.
Since many of these technologies require equipment to be installed in aircraft as well as on the
ground, it became necessary to develop a forecast of aircraft quantities that would allow for
further classification of aircraft capability since the equipage costs for all aircraft would not be the
same. For Air Transport and Regional aircraft, a bottom-up forecast was developed for each
airline that was then summed to arrive at an aggregate. For GA, the forecast was based upon type
of aircraft.
The FAA Safe Flight 21 Program Office asked CAASD for an analysis of potential future ADS-B
equipage and the costs associated with modifying non-capable aircraft. The analysis was
performed using the aircraft quantities from the previously developed forecast. The methodology
followed is presented here as an example that can be used for other airborne equipment.
1.3 Scope and Audience
This paper describes the formulation of a future fleet-wide aircraft equipage cost estimation
model. First presented is a forecast of future U.S. aircraft, broken down by model for Air
Transport aircraft and by type for GA aircraft. When combined with model or type specific
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