A Predictive Model of User Equipage Costs for Future Air ... - Mitre

9 Implementation Plans Defined
The user responses and the associated costs described in Chapter 8 assumed voluntary equipage
actions on the part of operators and manufacturers. In several of those cases, aircraft will exist that
do not have CDTI capability. Since many CDTI operational procedures require 100% equipage to
achieve the expected benefits, it may be necessary to mandate compliance within a specific
timeframe. An Implementation Plan defines a specific timeframe of implementation that can be
applied to all of the user responses to determine the range of non-compliant aircraft and their
associated costs of compliance. This provides for two different forms of cost accounting with
respect to the costs attributable to the program; voluntary costs and involuntary costs.
Voluntary costs are defined within the implementation plan as the costs a user will assume on a
voluntary basis. These are costs that a user would spend without any forcing event to equip with
the desired avionics. The voluntary costs are not accounted against the program and are therefore
considered borne by the user as the user has determined that these costs are justified for the
benefits received by having the capability on the aircraft. These costs occur prior to the issuance
of a mandate.
Any costs incurred after the identification of a mandate, or access denial if not equipped with the
desired technology, are considered to be involuntary costs. These costs are all considered to be
against any benefits defined for the system. The total equipage costs are the sum of the voluntary
and involuntary costs accumulated to achieve the equipage.
9.1 Implementation Plan #1 (IP1)
Spiral 3 of the FAA’s plan is scheduled to end in December 2016, resulting in full provision of
ADS-B services. Therefore, it was desired to investigate a mandate that would begin in January
2017 in order to achieve 100% equipage of the affected U.S. fleet by December 2020. This would
allow for full use of CDTI procedures in 2021 above FL 100, in Class B airspace, and at the top
~70 airports. It was estimated that 10% of the GA aircraft would not need to meet this criteria and
would thus not be required to equip.
This timing was applied to each of the possible user responses described in Chapter 8. Any
aircraft that was equipped prior to 2017 was considered to be a “voluntary” equipage, as there was
no forced equipage requirement at that time. Aircraft that needed to be modified after 2016 were
considered to be forced into compliance, whether or not the user would have done so voluntarily
anyway, since they are subject to the mandate and should be captured as a cost of the mandate.
These aircraft are referred to as “stragglers” since they did not voluntarily equip prior to the
mandate.
This Implementation Plan timing was analyzed for two types of rules; required broadcast only
capability, and required CDTI capability.
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