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Covering Data Data thru thru September September 2012 2012 Volume Volume 11, 11, Number 4 <strong>Hawaii</strong> Au<strong>to</strong> Outlook <strong>Hawaii</strong> Au<strong>to</strong> Outlook Sponsored by: <strong>Hawaii</strong> Au<strong>to</strong>mobile <strong>Dealers</strong> Association FORECAST FORECAST State Market <strong>to</strong> Improve for Third Consecutive Year in 2012 State Market <strong>to</strong> Improve for Third Consecutive Year in 2012 Predicted increase for this year is 19.9%; another increase likely in 2013 Predicted increase for this year is 19.9%; another increase likely in 2013 Information overload is hard <strong>to</strong> avoid these days. Information Here’s our attempt overload <strong>to</strong> is cut hard through <strong>to</strong> avoid the these clutter. days. Here’s our attempt <strong>to</strong> cut through the Below is a concise summary of key trends and clutter. Below is a concise summary of key developments in the <strong>Hawaii</strong> new vehicle market. trends and developments in the <strong>Hawaii</strong> new vehicle market. State market posts solid gains during first State three market quarters posts of solid 2012; gains increase during exceeds first three Nationquarters of 2012; increase exceeds Nation State new retail light vehicle registrations were State up 22.3% new retail through light September vehicle registrations of this year were versus up a year 22.3% earlier, through well September above the 13% of this uptick year in verthe sus a year earlier, well above the 13% uptick National market. in the National market. New vehicle market picks up steam in Third New vehicle market picks up steam in Third Quarter of this year Quarter of this year The Third Third Quarter increase was was 28%, 28%, stronger stronger than in the First First and and Second Second Quarters Quarters (see page (see 2). page 2). Fourth consecutive annual increase likely in Fourth 2013 consecutive annual increase likely in 2013 State new retail light vehicle registrations are State predicted new <strong>to</strong> retail increase light 9% vehicle from registrations 2012 <strong>to</strong> 2013. are This predicted <strong>to</strong> increase 9% from 2012 <strong>to</strong> 2013. year’s annual increase is pegged at 19.9% This year’s annual increase is pegged at 19.9% Forecast determinants point <strong>to</strong> slower growth Forecast in new vehicle determinants sales during point next several <strong>to</strong> slower years growth in new vehicle sales during next sev- The likelihood of sluggish economic growth, the eral years slowly recovering labor market, economically The likelihood of sluggish economic growth, the restrictive slowly fiscal recovering policy from labor Washing<strong>to</strong>n, market, economi- the Euro cally Zone restrictive debt crisis, fiscal and a policy slowing from global Washing<strong>to</strong>n, economy the are Euro likely Zone <strong>to</strong> put debt a mild crisis, damper and a slowing on the global rate of economy growth in new are likely vehicle <strong>to</strong> sales. put a Pent mild up damper demand, on an the rate of growth in new vehicle sales. Pent improving housing market, low interest rates, and up demand, an improving housing market, low gradually improving household debt levels should interest rates, and gradually improving household ensure debt sales levels will continue should ensure <strong>to</strong> head sales higher, will but con- at a tinue slightly <strong>to</strong> slower head pace. higher, but at a slightly slower pace. Cars grab a larger share of state market Cars Car market grab a share larger increased share of from state 49.9% market during Car the first market nine share months increased of 2011 from <strong>to</strong> 51.7% 49.9% this dur- year. ing Primary the fac<strong>to</strong>rs first nine were months higher fuel of 2011 prices <strong>to</strong> and 51.7% a bevy this year. Primary fac<strong>to</strong>rs were higher fuel pric- of new product introductions. es and a bevy of new product introductions. Alternative powertrain vehicle sales are up Alternative powertrain vehicle sales are up sharply in 2012 sharply in 2012 State sales of of hybrid hybrid and and electric electric cars cars and trucks and trucks were up were 78% up so 78% far this so year. far this Market year. share Market has share risen <strong>to</strong> has 6.1% risen in 2012. <strong>to</strong> 6.1% in 2012. 80,000 70,000 Market is predicted <strong>to</strong> improve 60,000 67,224 19.9% in 2012 and 9% in 2013. 50,000 40,000 57,526 48,500 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 44,500 42,804 33,639 34,019 37,086 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Forecast Forecast The graph shows new retail light vehicle registrations in the state from 2006 thru 2011, and Au<strong>to</strong> Outlook’s projections for 2012 and 2013. New light vehicle registrations Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, and Chevrolet are Toyota, leaders Honda, in state Nissan, market Ford, and Chevrolet are leaders in state market Toyota was the best selling brand during the first Toyota was the best selling brand during the three quarters of this year, with a 27% share. first three quarters of this year, with a 27% Honda’s share. Honda’s share was share 13%. was 13%. smart, smart, Chrysler, Chrysler, Jeep, Jeep, Acura, Acura, Land Land Rover, Rover, and Volkswagen and Volkswagen gain gain a lot a of lot ground of ground in 2012 in 2012 New retail registrations registrations for for each of these these six brands were up up more than than 50% 50% so so far far in in 2012. 2012. Toyota Corolla/Matrix best-selling car in car state in market; state market; Tacoma Tacoma is light is truck light leader truck leader Honda Civic and Toyota Prius were ranked sec- Honda Civic and Toyota Prius were ranked second ond and third behind Corolla/Matrix in the car and third behind Corolla/Matrix in the car market, market, while Honda CRV and Nissan Frontier while trailed Honda the Tacoma. CRV and Nissan Frontier trailed the Tacoma. Detroit Three gain share in 2012, as Japa- Detroit nese brands Three halt gain losses share in 2012, as Japanese brands Detroit halt Three losses accounted for a slightly larger Detroit chunk of Three the accounted <strong>Hawaii</strong> market for a so slightly far this larger year, chunk with share of the increasing <strong>Hawaii</strong> market from so 19.4% far this during year, with the first nine months of 2011 <strong>to</strong> 19.9% in 2012. share increasing from 19.4% during the first nine months of 2011 <strong>to</strong> 19.9% in 2012. Annual Trend in <strong>Hawaii</strong> New Vehicle Market Market Summary TM YTD '11 YTD '12 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sept. thru Sept. '11 <strong>to</strong> '12 YTD '12 TOTAL 27,708 33,884 22.3% Car 13,828 17,534 26.8% 51.7% Light Truck 13,880 16,350 17.8% 48.3% Detroit Three 5,380 6,726 25.0% 19.9% European 3,253 3,932 20.9% 11.6% Japanese 16,881 20,639 22.3% 60.9% Korean 2,194 2,587 17.9% 7.6% Detroit Three consists of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, and Chrysler. His<strong>to</strong>rical data Source: Au<strong>to</strong>Count data from Experian Au<strong>to</strong>motive. 29
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