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Report No 678-F-001 METSI CONSULTANTS: SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS FOR PHASE 1 DEVELOPMENT 16
Report No 678-F-001 METSI CONSULTANTS: SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS FOR PHASE 1 DEVELOPMENT SECTION 4. APPLICATION OF THE DRIFT METHOD TO THE LHWP Ideally, any IFR methodology, including DRIFT, should be applied in the feasibility and/or early design phases of a project to permit maximum use of the information and full interchange of information between the engineering design and the downstream environmental and socio-economic assessments. This is not possible with the current project since Katse Dam had been completed by the time the IFR assessment commenced, and Mohale and Matsoku projects were in an advanced state of design and partial construction, with severe scheduling and cost constraints on possible design changes to accommodate flow release modifications. Annex E summarises the designs of the outlet facilities for Phase I projects. The Treaty on the LHWP is specific with regard to flow releases from Phase 1 projects, and any changes to accommodate IFRs would necessitate bilateral deliberations and decision-making at a high level. Furthermore, the assumed yields from Phase 1 with the Treaty flows in operation have been applied extensively in water resource and supply planning in South Africa, and yield changes due to IFRs would have significant planning and economic repercussions. The four scenarios assessed in study LHDA 648 were chosen in consultation with the Client and the engineering consultants for Phase 1B. Scenarios reflect various approaches and options for flow releases that combine groups of biophysical and social factors to reduce the number of biophysical and socio-economic assessments to a workable number. The same four scenarios were assessed in Contract LHDA 678. All scenarios in the current report assume that only Phase 1 developments (Katse, Mohale and Matsoku Weir) are in place. 4.1. SCENARIOS 4.1.1 Minimum Degradation This is a hypothetical condition in which maintenance of the rivers in a state of minimal degradation from their current condition is the main objective, and only water in excess of that required to attain this condition would be available for diversion. While the hydrological conditions assumed for this scenario would result in ecological changes, none of these are considered likely to affect the long-term viability or sustainability of the riverine ecosystems as they currently exist. This scenario served the purpose of allowing specialists to interactively consider baseline conditions relative to flow regimes and to establish the flows below which significant ecological and physical changes could be anticipated. A more detailed description of the assessment appears in Report No. 678-002. 4.1.2 Treaty This is the scenario generated by application of the release conditions specified in the Treaty and is at the opposite end of the range from Minimum Degradation in terms of water requirements. Conceptually the scenario differs from 4.1.1 above in that the volumes of abstracted water are first specified and consequential river conditions then assessed. A more detailed description of the assessment appears in Report No. 678-002. 17
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