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Report No 678-F-001 METSI CONSULTANTS: SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS FOR PHASE 1 DEVELOPMENT Table 6.2 Component specific summary for each IFR Site for the Treaty Scenario with Phase 1 dams in place. Severity ratings are coded as follows: blue – negligible; green – low; yellow – moderate; purple – severe; red – critically severe. Subcomponent IFR Site 1 IFR Site 2 IFR Site 3 IFR Site 4 IFR Site 5 IFR Site 6 IFR Site 7 IFR Site 8 Geomorphology S CS S M N N S M Water quality M CS S L L N CS L Vegetation M S S L N N S M Macroinvertebrates M CS S M L N S L Fish S CS S L L L CS M Amphibia L S M L N N S L Mammals and Birds L S S L N N L L The level of impact of the Treaty Scenario can be broadly summarised as follows (Figure 6.1): IFR Site 1: Severe IFR Site 2: Critically-severe IFR Site 3: Severe IFR Site 4: Moderate IFR Site 5: Low IFR Site 6: Negligible IFR Site 7: Severe IFR Site 8: Moderate. MOHALE DAM Mohale's Hoek Senqu 6 Quthing KATSE DAM 7 Senqunyane 8 Lesobeng Malibamatso 2 Thaba Tseka 5 MASOKU WEIR 1 3 4 Senqu Matsoku Qacha's Nek LEVEL OF IMPACT: NOT ASSESSED: Negligible: Low: Moderate: Severe: Critically severe: Position of IFR Site North 0 20 40 Kilometres Figure 6.1 Broad summary of the likely severity of the biophysical impacts downstream of the LHWP Phase 1 dams under the Treaty Scenario. 34
6.3. SOCIAL IMPACTS Report No 678-F-001 METSI CONSULTANTS: SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS FOR PHASE 1 DEVELOPMENT The total number of households likely affected by measurable resource losses and health risk impacts under the Treaty Scenario is estimated at ~8250. These are the households living along Reaches 1, 2, 3, 7 and (possibly) 8 where moderate to critically severe biophysical and health risk changes are anticipated. An estimated 1520 households live along Reach 1 (the Matsoku River below the weir), 3850 along Reaches 2 and 3 (the Malibamats’o between Katse and the Senqu confluence), 2180 along Reach 7 (the Senqunyane between Mohale Dam and the Lesobeng confluence), and about 700 along Reach 8 (the lower Senqunyane). The predicted loss of wild vegetables, herbs and fish reported under the biophysical consequences, would result in a considerable reduction in the consumption of these items in Reaches 1, 2, 3, 7 and, to a lesser extent, reach 8. Similarly there would be fewer vegetables and fish to sell. The most important conclusion from previous nutritional studies of the Katse and Mohale catchment communities is that LHWP rural populations are vulnerable from a nutritional point of view. Their staple diets consist mainly of carbohydrate type foods (maize and sorghum). Protein in the form of meat and dairy products is not frequently consumed. Fish is thus an important source of protein for those communities that have active fishermen. Similarly, the nutrients provided by riparian vegetables are important. In Reaches 2 and 7, immediately downstream of Katse and Mohale Dams, reductions in the abundance of vegetables, herbs and fish are expected to exceed 50%. This could have one of two possible repercussions. Use of the particular resource might cease because of low availability. Observations focusing on ‘perceptions of loss’ along the highly affected Malibamats'o River downstream of Katse Dam suggest that the concept of “it’s not worth going there any more” is fairly common among affected communities. This means that if the availability of a resource is reduced by a large amount, it becomes essentially valueless since communities think in cost-benefit terms due to, amongst other factors, the long and strenuous hike down to the river to gather the resource in question. The decline of resources, if not mitigated or compensated, could lead to over-utilization and ultimately to collapse of the remaining resources. The added health impacts associated with the Treaty Scenario could be serious. Severe to critically severe impacts are expected for diarrhoeal disease in Reaches 1, 2 and 7, as well as for nutrition in Reaches 2 and 7. The possibility of Schistosomiasis becoming established in the reaches immediately downstream of the dams could increase health risks, although the actual establishment of the host snails in the rivers has a low probability. The incidence of skin and eye diseases for Reaches 2 and 7 is also expected to be severe. Examples of the sorts of problems that would likely be experienced are already available from IFR Reach 2, immediately downstream of Katse Dam where villagers report the water to be too contaminated to use safely and they complain about skin rashes after they cross or swim in the river. The poor water quality is said to be caused by the growth of algae (bolele) due to reduced flow and the incidence of small black insects (thalaboliba, maphele, mankulunyane) occurring in the water. The increase in the incidence of livestock diseases and/or injuries is generally anticipated to be low under the Treaty Scenario, except for Reaches 2 and 7 where general susceptibility to diseases due to malnutrition is expected to increase, as well as the risk of stomach flukes and an increase in pests such as Simulium nigritarse. 35
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