The South Africa – Viet Nam Rhino Horn Trade Nexus (PDF ... - WWF

situation at the source: south africa
Rate (number of rhinos killed per day)
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
1990–2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Figure 22 Mean daily rate of poaching of rhinos in South Africa from 1990 to 20 June 2012* (data from M. Knight)
and gripping the rhino crisis in South Africa has become. If poaching continues to increase annually as
it has done since 2007, then eventually deaths will exceed births and rhino numbers in South Africa
will start to fall. Slowing the rate of escalation simply increases the time until the country’s rhino numbers
are likely to start declining. Modelling shows that if the rate of increase observed between 2009
and 2010 had continued, coupled with the observed increase in the number of White Rhinos being
hunted each year, South Africa’s White Rhino population would start to decline in 2013. A slower rate
of increase, for example as happened between 2011 and mid-2012, and the decline in rhino numbers
would be expected to commence in 2018 (R. Emslie, pers. comm., 2012).
The rate of rhino poaching has fluctuated somewhat over time, indicating that anti-poaching activities
and arrests may disrupt crime networks in the short-term. A March 2011 presentation by South African
law enforcement officials predicted that the total rhino deaths due to poaching in 2011 would be 292,
based on the relatively lower rate of poaching incidents at the time, a development thought to be
linked to a number of key arrests (Maggs, 2011). In fact, the total number of rhinos killed in 2011
reached 448 (Figure 21), suggesting that arrests may lead to brief spates of lower poaching activity but
are not, as yet, generally sustained throughout the year. Detailed analysis of rhino losses in quarterly
increments from 2010 to date show a progressive escalation through 2010, a levelling off during most
of 2011 but a major spike from the end of 2011 into the first quarter of 2012 (Figure 23). The pronounced
decline in the poaching rate since April 2012 is thought to be linked to recent arrests of key
syndicate players (see “Arrests of rhino crime syndicate members in South Africa” section below).
Looking at the same data to compare quarterly patterns in the rate of poaching, it can be seen that within
each quarterly grouping the rate of poaching has increased in each successive year since January 2010
through June 2012 (Figure 24). Furthermore, the last quarter of each year, the period from October
through December, consistently shows the highest rate of poaching in each year.
Thus, it is difficult to be predicative regarding how poaching rates will play out through the rest of 2012 and
subsequent years. Overall, the total number of rhinos killed per year in South Africa over the past five years
has shown a continued escalation (Figure 22), even if there are fluctuations in the daily rate of poaching.
Figure 23 Number of rhinos recorded killed in poaching incidents in South Africa 1990-2012, showing predicted
total of 532 rhinos for 2012 based on rates to 20 June 2012 (data from M. Knight)
Figure 24 Seasonal patterns in the quarterly rate of rhino losses in South Africa 2010 – 20 June 2012 (data
from M. Knight)
70 the south africa – viet nam rhino horn trade nexus TRAFFIC 71
Rate of rhino poaching losses (rhinos/day) Rate of rhino poaching losses (rhinos/day)
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.56
Jan–Mar
2010
0.56
0.90
Apr–Jun
2010
1.17
1.69
1.01
Jul–Sept
2010
0.90
1.17 1.17 1.16 1.14
Oct–Dec
2010
1.16
Jan–Mar
2011
1.22
Apr–Jun
2011
1.01
Jul–Sept
2011
1.14
1.48
Oct–Dec
2011
1.17
1.69
Jan–Mar
2012
2010 2011 To 20 June 2012
1.48
Jan–Mar Apr–Jun Jul–Sept Oct–Dec
1.22
Apr–20
Jun 2012