Murder and Serious Sexual Assault - Lancaster EPrints - Lancaster ...

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Finally, the study explored the extent to which offenders might be assessed in terms of
the combination of convictions that contribute to a high risk of subsequent serious
offending (through the development of risk scores). While validation is required before
any instruments can become operational, this may be an area for future development.
The development of risk scores takes us towards the possibility of actively intervening
in the careers of potential serious offenders. An intervention model raises questions,
however, about what can be reasonably done to achieve crime prevention. If a
retributionist approach to punishment is embraced, where the focus is on punishing
for past criminal activity, there can be little enthusiasm about anything that
intervenes to try to prevent future wrongdoing. In contrast, if a more rehabilitative
approach to punishment is adopted, where the focus is more future directed, then the
intervention model has much more appeal. Here the questions become how much one
is entitled to intervene and how accurate are the tools to support intervention. In
reality, reasonableness and resources become the key defining features. If the future
potential harm were limited, then expensive treatment (which may mean
incarceration) or surveillance (which is draining of resources) would be rejected on
both ethical and pragmatic grounds. It is self-evident, however, that the future
potential harm arising from the target offences in this study is considerable.
Recommendations
Findings from this study suggest that rare or unusual offences indicate a high and
statistically significant likelihood of subsequent serious offending. Some practical
recommendations follow from this.
● The findings should inform the review of Sex Offender Register ‘trigger’ offences
(i.e. those offences which lead to registration) as they help identify previous
offences which indicate a future risk of serious sexual offending.
● NCOF should consider the findings in relation to their strategy for identifying
precursor offences to murder and SSA for inclusion on their database.
This study has produced encouraging results in identifying the potential value of
exploring systematically the criminal history of serious offenders. It is however only
a first step. Further work in this area will be needed to validate the findings of this
study, particularly in relation to the creation of risk scores. In the longer term,
incorporating a greater level of detail on both previous and target offences (e.g.
offender-victim relationship, circumstances of the offence), and focusing on
particular categories of prior offence (e.g. kidnapping), may be beneficial.
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