Murder and Serious Sexual Assault - Lancaster EPrints - Lancaster ...

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What can risk assessment professionals and other agencies take away from these findings? The analyses illustrate risk in terms of how much more likely certain offenders (those who possess certain types of previous convictions) are to be convicted of murder or SSA, compared with other offenders. A good number of the findings indicate that many categories of conviction carry only a slightly enhanced risk of subsequent serious offending (greater than one, but less than twice as likely to receive a subsequent conviction for murder or a serious sexual offence than a general offender). Some unusual offences, however, yield much greater levels of risk of a subsequent conviction for murder or serious sexual assault. In spite of increased relative risk due to the presence of certain previous convictions, however, many offenders with these convictions do not go on to commit serious offences (the absolute risk of a future conviction appears low). There are, nevertheless, several very practical applications arising from this study. The findings provide an empirical way of informing the review of offences for Sex Offender Registration. One of the objectives behind the establishment of the Sex Offenders Register (under the Sex Offenders Act 1997), was to ‘help the police both prevent crimes…identify suspects once an offence has been perpetrated, and might also act as a deterrent to re-offending’. This study tends to confirm some of the methodology that underpins the Sex Offenders Register, but also suggests that the type of offences (and sentences) which trigger registration could be broadened in the light of these findings (given that some minor sexual offences appear to indicate an increased relative risk of convictions for subsequent SSA). To this end, the review of the Sex Offender Act (Home Office, 2001) recommended that indecent assault offences against adult females receiving more minor sentences should require registration. One area which clearly lends itself towards further analysis is the offence of kidnapping as a precursor offence for both serious sexual assault and murder. This study suggests that more focused studies on small groups of very serious offenders (and relevant control groups), as a means to identify risk, might possibly yield dividends. From an investigative perspective, this study provides a framework to help the National Crime and Operations Faculty (NCOF) to collect information on precursor offences which lie outside the current offence criteria of murder and rape. A limited range of ‘unusual’ offence categories which scored a high relative risk of subsequent serious offending would appear to offer most in terms of linking to more serious, subsequent offences. (viii)
Finally, the study explored the extent to which offenders might be assessed in terms of the combination of convictions that contribute to a high risk of subsequent serious offending (through the development of risk scores). While validation is required before any instruments can become operational, this may be an area for future development. Recommendations Findings from this study suggest that rare or unusual offences indicate a high and statistically significant likelihood of subsequent serious offending. Some practical recommendations follow from this: ● The findings should inform the review of Sex Offender Register ‘trigger’ offences (i.e. those offences which lead to registration) as they help identify previous offences which indicate a future risk of serious sexual offending. ● NCOF should consider the findings in relation to their strategy for identifying precursor offences to murder and SSA for inclusion on their database. ● This study has produced encouraging results in identifying the potential value of exploring systematically the criminal history of serious offenders. It is however only a first step. Further work in this area will be needed to validate the findings of this study, particularly in relation to the creation of risk scores. In the longer term, incorporating a greater level of detail on both previous and target offences (e.g. offender-victim relationship, circumstances of the offence), and focusing on particular categories of prior offence (e.g. kidnapping), may be beneficial. (ix)
Page 1 and 2: Police Research Series Paper 144 Mu
Page 3 and 4: Foreword Murder and serious sexual
Page 5 and 6: Executive summary Improving our und
Page 7: Relationships - family, acquaintanc
Page 11 and 12: 6. Summary and conclusions 39 Main
Page 13 and 14: 15 Robbery: odds ratios and relativ
Page 15 and 16: 1. Introduction Aims and objectives
Page 17 and 18: INTRODUCTION Here too, only those c
Page 19 and 20: INTRODUCTION Many individuals who a
Page 21 and 22: INTRODUCTION ● the number of offe
Page 23 and 24: Number of offenders MURDERERS AND S
Page 25 and 26: MURDERERS AND SERIOUS SEXUAL OFFEND
Page 41 and 42: RISK FACTORS AND RELATIONSHIPS IN M
Page 47 and 48: 5. Unusual previous offences UNUSUA
Page 49 and 50: UNUSUAL PREVIOUS OFFENCES One gener
Page 51 and 52: UNUSUAL PREVIOUS OFFENCES The relat
Page 53 and 54: 6. Summary and conclusions SUMMARY
Page 55 and 56: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS would be sh
Page 57 and 58: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The finding
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References REFERENCES Aitkin, M.A.,
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REFERENCES Soothill, K., Francis, B
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The model is: Number of previous se
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Figure 6: Sentence lengths of ‘se
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Table 14: Other wounding etc: odds
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Absolute risks through an indirect
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the model fit including the variabl
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APPENDIX C ‘murder-neutral’ and
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APPENDIX C career of offences appea
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RECENT POLICING AND REDUCING CRIME
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