NATURAL RESOURCES OF SRI LANKA

24
the crude death rate will be close to the crude birth rate,
and population growth will reach a replacement plateau.
International Migration
It is difficult to predict migration trends, given the
social, political and economic variables in countries of
origin and destination. The inflow of Indian migrant
workers resulted in large net immigration until midcentury.
Migration into Sri Lanka on a large scale and
on systematic basis began in the early 1830s
with the opening up of the hill country areas
for coffee plantations. The reluctance of the
indigenous labor to accept employment on the
newly opened estates resulted in a regular
recruitment by the European planters of large
numbers of indentured labourers from South
India. In the past while Sri Lanka has been
receiving a large number of immigrants, the
number of nationals emigrating from the country
had been negligible. None of the indigenous
communities are migratory in character.
They are attached to their land and have had
better fortune with it than have the South Indian
peasants. (ESCAP 1974).
Citizenship laws of 1949 regulated immigration,
and political changes and new language policies after
independence stimulated emigration of Eurasian and
Burgher communities to North America, Western Europe,
Australia, and other parts of Asia. The Indo-Ceylon
Agreement of 1964 for repatriation of Indian
migrant workers substantially increased out-migration
in the 1970s. Outflows of nationals to developed countries
for economic reasons commenced at the end of the
1960s and assumed brain drain proportions in the
1970s. Demand for labor in the Middle East raised the
volume of temporary migration after the mid-1970s,
when total volume of migration to this region peaked
around 225,000. It declined after 1984 and more rapidly
with the Gulf crisis in 1990. Ethnic violence in the
1980s resulted in migration of Sri Lankan Tamils to
India, estimated at 100,000. Violence and terrorist activities
also caused clandestine migration to Western
Europe and North America, mostly for economic rea-
POPULATION PROFILE
sons. The flows were large but reliable data are not
available.
The population projection constructed in 1988 assumed
net outilow of 50,000 per year in the short term
until 1991, and average rates of 35,000 per year from
1991 to 2006 and 25,000 per year thereafter. Major
changes in social, political and economic conditions
could seriously alter these estimated migration flows,
however, especially in the short term.
Projected Population
The population projection used in this profile was
constructed in 1988 based on the assumptions outlined
above on fertility, mortality and migration. The projection
provides only tentative estimates to 2056, primarily
to examine the size and composition of the population
as growth rates decline. Long range projections have
been found reliable only in the short and medium term.
According to the current projection, population
has increased from 15.046 million in 1981 to 16.587
million in 1986 and is projected to rise to 20.05 million
in 2001,22.01 million in 2011, and 23.725 million in 2021.
In 2046 it should peak at 25.444 million, resulting in a
69 percent increase since 1981. The average rates of
annual growth are given in Figure 3.3 and numerical
increase in Figure 3.4.
In contrast, other projections have concluded that
population will increase to less than 20 million by the
year 2000 and will stabilize at about 23 million by 2040.
They are based on less conservative basic assumptions.
This projection discloses several noteworthy
trends concerning pre-school and elderly populations.
The pre-school age group of 0-4 years would increase
from the base year 1981 until 1986, decline until 2006,
increase again to 2016, and then decline (Figure 3.4).
The relative share of this age group would continuously
decline from 13.5 per cent in 1986 to 6.5 per cent toward
the end of the projection period. Young dependents in
the age group 0-14 years would peak near 1991, at about
5.9 million, and would decline thereafter. In contrast,
the elderly population shows a dramatic increase. The
population over 60 years of age would increase more
than threefold, from 982,000 in 1981 to 3.15 million by
2016. Ranks of the elderly would continue to increase
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