Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT

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Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Agriculture 49 7. Food production from livestock Fodder production productivity will increase as a result of climate change at locations with sufficient water supply, and as a result, livestock farming will profit from cheaper, increasingly domestically produced feed. The longer grazing period, as well as new, adapted fodder plant mixtures may increase the potential of animal production. However, negative effects are also to be expected: The increase in heat days will cause problems for livestock husbandry. Furthermore, feed quality may decline and yield security decrease due to more frequent extreme events. Switzerland is a “fodder-production country”: The prerequisites regarding precipitation volume and distribution are very favourable for fodder production (pasture). What’s more, the topography of a large part of the area only allows for fodder production. The significance of hydroponic production is comparably small but increasing. Traditionally, livestock husbandry was shaped by the effort to become more independent of climate variation (e.g., with climate control in barns, closed systems and conserved feed). In recent years, however, the use of grazing land has increased again. This is due to economic considerations (cost savings), and the effort to improve the well-being of the animals and to create more natural production. As a result, livestock husbandry has become more dependent on climate. However, strategies to deal with extreme climate situations are still only required in exceptional cases. Sporadically, conflicts may arise with particular housing systems, for instance with free-range systems during summer heat. The expected future increase in the number of heat days will cause problems for animal husbandry: Water demand will increase and animals will increasingly need to be protected from high temperatures by adequate air conditioning in barns or by shading. In general, animal illnesses and parasites will probably not increase but shifts in the spectrum of pests cannot be ruled out. Already today, there are animal breeds that are better able to deal with these conditions, as well as with the previously mentioned changes. The breeding goals for breeds common in Switzerland need to be adapted. In the future, due to climate change, fodder production productivity will tend to increase at higher elevations in locations where water supply is not a limiting factor. Animal production will profit from a better choice of cheaper domestic fodder. By breeding adapted fodder plant varieties (including new species) and developing suitable mixtures, this advantage can be enhanced. The lengthening of the grazing period (see section 2) results in additional grazing days and raises the production potential. In addition, the increase in suitable drying days could improve the quality of the conserved fodder. However, there are also negative effects to be expected: Due to the increase in weather extremes, the supply of fodder will become more irregular during the vegetation period and the dependency on fodder preserves will grow (see section 3). Fodder plants that are adapted to warmer growing conditions often have a lower fodder value. Furthermore, parasites (primarily fungal) develop more often in plants from temperate zones, affecting the fodder value and representing a risk to human and animal health. All these factors will have a varying impact depending on elevation and region. Production relocations are to be expected; alternatively the proportion of hydroponic or climate-indendent production could increase. Uncertainties It is unclear to what extent the decrease in the demand for fodder preserves as a result of the extended vegetation period and the increase in demand in order to bridge scarcity during growth periods will compensate each other. The area of conflict between controlled (intensive) and natural production will add another dimension. Although the number of potential grazing days will tend to increase, the number of optimal grazing days will probably decrease due to more days with high temperatures and drought. Regarding trampling damage in the case of overwet pastures, the situation is likely to improve.
50 Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Agriculture 8. Measures for crops, cultivation methods and farm management Agriculture should be sufficiently adaptable to adjust to an average temperature increase of 2 to 3 °C by 2050, by taking suitable measures in the areas of species and variety selection, cultivation methods and farm management. However, the increase in weather variability and extreme events will be a challenge. The current trend towards warmer and drier summers with more frequent extreme events requires an examination of the common crops, standard cultivation methods and the type of farm management. Crops The yield stability of many crops will probably decrease due to summer heat and drought. Therefore, the potential of existing and alternative crops needs to be evaluated. Today’s varieties might possibly be replaced by more robust varieties or species that do not need to be newly bred but may already be available in corresponding climates. In the case of perennial, special crops (e.g., in fruit growing and viniculture), adaptation is less simple. For the importation of new plant varieties, domestic competence in variety evaluation is important in order to achieve targeted selection (acquisition of know-how). Variety evaluation, with increased consideration of change in climate and pests, also serves to select competitive and broadly resistant varieties that are also distinguished by a greater weather, yield and quality tolerance. In order to better distribute the risk of bad harvests, there should be a multifaceted mixture of crops without returning to small-scale cultivation (see Farm management section). At the farm level, in addition to fodder production, a higher yield stability can also be attained by combining varieties in the cultivation of cereals. Crops that cannot be adapted to the changing climate (e.g., oats) need to be replaced by new ones (e.g., soy, old rice). For special crops, a high added value may be achieved, for example, by cultivating more melons, grapes or citrus fruits. Cultivation methods Modern agricultural technology has already reduced the dependency of agriculture on the weather, leading to increased feed quality. In fodder production, cutting can be carried out at an earlier date (with smaller biomass or leaf area index), thereby attaining a higher quality. Further adaptation is possible in particular for intensive pasture management with maintenance measures, while this is less likely for extensive pasture management. 20 Crop losses in arable farming can also be reduced by adapting the sowing date to warmer temperatures. Thereby, new possibilities for the design of crop rotation arise. The expected increase in summer drought will force farmers to economise water usage. Possible measures include early sowing, foliar fertilising in spring and preferably continuous soil cover consisting of living or dead plant material, as well as foregoing soil tillage operations in summer. At the same time, these measures impede soil erosion by heavy precipitation. The most consistent form of tillage to conserve soil texture is direct sowing (no-till). However, this requires accompanying measures against the spread of weeds, snails or fungi, particularly in wet weather, and in general against too strong competition from the soil-covering crops. At locations with sufficient water supply for irrigation, the irrigation water needs to be used as effectively as possible. Measures include among others the consistent use of drip irrigation in row crops and the turning off of sprinkler systems during sunshine. In the end, plants should not be spoilt by irrigating too early or too often, so that they develop an efficient root system. The relevant know-how for Switzerland needs to be acquired and incorporated into training in the future. Farm management Global warming will extend the vegetation period and raise the number of available field workdays. These changes will affect farm management in the following ways: Highly-mechanised cultivation methods with specific requirements for driving or cultivating soil become increasingly of interest. Expensive and efficient machines can better be used to capacity and – in the case of silage harvesting – be increasingly utilised with a time lag in mountainous areas (see fig. 5). Additionally, scheduling
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