Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT

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Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Tourism 89 Possibilities for snowmaking With rising snow lines and the simultaneous rise in expectations of snow-reliable holiday destinations by winter sportspeople, many winter sport regions are increasingly investing in artificial snowmaking. Snowmaking requires that certain meteorological conditions are fulfilled. It only works efficiently if air temperatures are 2 °C or below, 6 humidity is less than 80% and water temperature is a maximum of 2 °C. In order to make snow at higher temperatures, snow additives are often employed. The energy and water consumption of the machines is relatively high but depends on the technical system selected, the location, water supply and climatic conditions. In addition, high costs arise from infrastructure and operation of the machines. 8 transportation facilities and 5 km slope length. Skiing regions at lower elevations in the Jura are excluded. Based on these criteria, the study includes a smaller number of skiing regions in comparison to previous studies. 5,7 The skiing regions taken into account are generally located at higher elevations and are therefore less vulnerable to changes in snow-reliability. With a shift in the line of snow-reliability by 300 m, as is expected by 2050, only 79% of the skiing regions would still be snow-reliable. In particular, ski tourism in the Vaud and Fribourg Alps, in Ticino, and in Central and Eastern Switzerland is at risk, where only 50 to 60% of the skiing regions will be snow-reliable by the mid-21st Table 1: Snow-reliability in Swiss skiing regions under current and future climatic conditions. (Source: Abegg et al. 2007) 6 Technical measures will be able to replace the lack of snow only to a limited extent and snowmaking will be possible less often with warmer temperatures. While the effect on the energy market is hard to predict, it can be assumed that water resources will become more valuable. Water shortage may become a problem for winter sport locations that strongly depend on snowmaking. Snow conditions will make it necessary to invest further in snowmaking facilities, as well as in reservoirs and the maintenance of drainage systems. For mountain railways, snow shortage and an increased danger potential mean strongly rising costs. With artificial snowmaking, these costs cannot entirely be shifted onto the price, since snow-reliability is similar to an insurance benefit, which only offsets a comparative disadvantage and does not represent an additional benefit. century. The skiing regions in the Valais and in Grisons will be less affected (see table 1). In comparison to Switzerland, the effects of climate change will be even more drastic in the skiing regions of the Alpine countries France, Italy, Austria and Germany. 6 Climate change will not only affect snow-reliability but also the demand for winter sport offerings. In the medium term, the interest of the younger generation for skiing sport may decrease, since children will lack the opportunity to learn skiing locally in early life. In Switzerland, the number of skiers is already stagnating, although this is only marginally related to climate change. Region Number of Snow-reliability skiing regions today +1°Ca) +2 °Ca) +4 °Ca) Vaud and Fribourg Alps 17 100% 65% 53% 6% Bernese Oberland 26 96% 85% 62% 12% Central Switzerland 20 90% 75% 55% 20% Eastern Switzerland 12 83% 58% 58% 8% Grisons 36 100% 97% 97% 83% Valais 49 100% 100% 100% 80% Ticino 4 100% 75% 50% 0% Switzerland 164 97% 87% 79% 49% a) time horizon: +1 °C: ca. 2020s; +2 °C: ca. 2050; +4 °C: towards the end of the century
90 Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Tourism Glacier retreat not only means the loss of an important attraction to many winter sport regions but also, particularly in summer, a restriction on offerings of glacier activities. The melting permafrost poses a further threat to certain mountain railways. Infrastructure that is anchored in the permafrost ground may be destabilised by variations in temperature. Since the foundations of pylons and stations of mountain railways as well as of avalanche barriers are anchored in the frozen loose rock, the necessity for costly rebuilding of the foundations increases. The melting permafrost also means an increasing risk of rockfall, landslides and mudflows, which again results in higher investments in safety and may lead to an increase in service interruptions. In warm summers with long periods of fine weather, the mountain railways may profit from the increase in mobility intensive daytrip and short-stay tourism. With appropriate adjustments, particular sports like mountain biking that are of relevance to mountain railways could gain in importance. Even new offerings for activities could be developed. However, only few mountain railways succeed in making summer business profitable and they cannot survive without a “good” winter. Accommodation In recent years, the number of hotels has decreased from 6300 (1992) to 5600 (2003). The number of beds has decreased only slightly within the same time period from 261,900 to 258,700. Even if certain concentration processes are under way, small hotels still dominate in Switzerland. The economic situation of the Swiss hotel business is not a pretty picture. Often the profitability is insufficient, the capital gearing is too high and the investment needs are large. The number of overnight stays in hotels also fell by about 14% between 1992 and 2003, from 36 to 31 million. While the number of guest arrivals increased slightly within this period, the average duration of stay decreased strongly. The booming secondhome tourism became a primary competitor to the hotel business in the Alps. The manifold problems of the Swiss hotel business are in the minority of cases directly related to climate change. While the hotel business offers about 260,000 beds, holiday flats and second homes provide about 1.2 million beds. A further 430,000 beds and sleeping places are offered by youth hostels, group accommodation and campgrounds. The alpine area is a popular region for second homes and holiday flats. The number of second homes has increased enormously in recent years, which has brought with it various problems (infrastructure geared to peak loads, urban sprawl, poor capacity utilisation, rising prices for locals, etc.). About two thirds of the second homes and holiday flats in Switzerland are occupied only a few weeks every year but are heated the entire winter. They therefore contribute considerably to CO 2 emissions. In spite of the expected decrease in heating degree days from 98 (2004) to 85 (2050), energy consumption will continue to rise. In addition, there will be increasing demand for cooling in summer (see Energy chapter, section 2). Climate change will affect the accommodation sector, in particular because of the changes in winter sports. In locations where winter sports are no longer a catalyst, the accommodation sector will experience massive slumps in demand. On the other hand, settlement pressure and thus mobility as well will increase at prime locations. Since the Lex Friedrich (consent to property purchase by foreigners) will be abolished, some regions are trying to restrict the building of new flats using new measures. The dynamics of the second-home market are shaped by many factors, of which until now climate has played a minor role. Changes in the tourist attractions and in the landscape will affect the attractiveness of a destination and therefore influence property prices. The potential for conflicts in new land development will grow due to the increased risk from natural hazards. The pressure on snow-reliable and easily accessible regions will increase. Insurance premiums and bank loans will tend to get more expensive because of the increased risks 9 (see Insurance chapter, section 4). Altogether, the added value of tourism will decrease at certain places despite an increasing number of tourist beds. If tourist flow shifts seasonally and spatially, the accommodation sector will feel the effects, although not to the same
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