Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT

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Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Health 69 Overview In Switzerland, the question of the relationship between climate change and health has become the centre of attention as a result of extreme events, such as the heat-wave summer of 2003, or the observed slow increase in tick-borne diseases. Heat waves In Switzerland, the likely increase in heat waves represents the most important climate-induced change in the health sector. The heat-wave summer of 2003, which resulted in 1000 additional deaths, demonstrated the susceptibility of the population. Similar conditions are to be expected every few years from 2050 onwards. Humans can adapt to higher mean temperatures to a limited extent, as experiences from southern countries have shown. However, adapting to the occurrence of heat waves at short notice is more difficult. In spite of this, the increase in mortality caused by heat waves can be mitigated by adequate measures. The question of how quickly the human organism is able to adapt to new and warmer conditions remains open. Heat waves also affect job performance and therefore have economic consequences. For temperatures above 30 °C, a reduction in the mental and physical job performance is detectable. Other extreme events The likely increase in extreme events, such as floods, mudslides and probably more severe storms, also has a direct impact on health. Such events cause deaths and injuries, as well as severe psychological effects. These effects can only partially be mitigated by preventive measures (protective structures, zones with building bans, flood plains, etc.). Food- and water-borne diseases With rising temperatures, in particular heat waves, the danger of food poisoning due to spoiled food and the risk of food-borne diseases (e.g. salmonella) increases. This mostly affects private consumption, where in the course of societal changes the knowledge about how to deal safely with food is declining. The risk of water-borne diseases is unlikely to increase. Even though floods can result in sewage and toxic substances entering open bodies of water, the danger of drinking water contamination and the transmission of diseases is relatively small in Switzerland thanks to the wide separation of drinking water and sewage systems and the well-controlled drinking water supply. Harmful substances Warming may increase the frequency of respiratory diseases due to a higher concentration of ozone and possibly as a result of higher concentrations of biogenous airborne particles, such as pollen or fungal spores. Vector-borne diseases For various diseases caused by so-called “vectors” (carriers of infectious diseases) considerable changes may occur. The estimation of these changes, however, is still rather uncertain. In Switzerland, the spread of exotic diseases that only affect humans, like malaria or dengue fever, is rather unlikely. On the other hand, diseases that can be transmitted from animals to humans, e.g. West Nile fever, are on the rise. Higher temperatures could also produce new vectors or result in a host change, including the possibility of humans becoming a host. It is also not clear how the frequency of tick-borne diseases will change. Ticks require a specific temperature as well as a specific humidity in order to spread. Due to these two factors, their distribution in Europe has northern and southern boundaries, currently in Northern Sweden and Italy, respectively. A temperature rise influences the activity period of ticks, as well as possibly their infection rate and the leisure time activities of people. At present, there is an observed increase in the number of reported tick-borne encephalitis cases in Switzerland. Links to other topics Agriculture Pollen concentrations are related to changes in agriculture. Thus, the cultivation of other agricultural crops or a shift in the cultivated quantity changes the associated pollen concentrations. Infrastructure The impairment of job performance due to heat is closely related to changes in infrastructure. The consideration of future temperature condi-
70 Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Health tions in architecture and in the planning of industrial and office buildings, is not only important with regard to work conditions but also in terms of other structural engineering issues. Water management The frequency of floods will be influenced by flood control measures. Floods and drinking 2. Heat waves water supply also have an important impact on water management. Following is a presentation of the different areas in which effects of climate change are expected. The order reflects the decreasing relevance of the expected changes to health. In Switzerland, the likely increase in heat waves by 2050 will be the most important climatically induced change with regard to health. The 1000 additional deaths caused by the heat-wave summer of 2003 demonstrated the sensitivity of the population. From 2050 onwards, similar conditions may occur every few years. Short-term measures include informing the population and introducing early warning systems. In the long term, adapted construction methods and city planning may enhance well-being. It is unclear how quickly the population is able to adapt to new climatic conditions. Heat and mortality An increase in heat waves is an undisputed result of the increase in mean temperature. When the mean temperature rises, the probability of events that are rare today rises as well. It is not yet clear whether the distribution of the temperatures merely shifts in parallel to the mean temperatures, or whether the variance of single years also increases, as some studies suggest. 1,2 Mortality shows a clear dependency on temperature. Mortality rises considerably when the temperature threshold of a specific region is exceeded. Fig. 1 illustrates the relationship between mortality and wind-chill factor on the northern and southern side of the Alps within the period 1990–2003. The regional difference is clearly evident: The “optimum” temperature with the lowest mortality rate is about 3.5 °C higher on the southern side than on the northern side of the Alps. That means that people adapt to generally higher ambient air temperatures physically as well as by attitude changes and technical measures. In order to consider the effects of climate change, the question therefore arises how quickly adaptation takes place. Based on the experiences of 2003, changes in behaviour could already be observed in 2005 (sunscreen, cooling, etc.). The heat-wave summer of 2003 clearly showed that severe heat waves can cause considerable health problems and additional deaths. Direct consequences are, for instance, heat-related cardiovascular problems, heat stroke, dehydration (drying-up of the body) and hyperthermia (overheating). Elderly people and those in care are most often affected. In 2003, heat waves resulted in a significant increase in the mortality rate in the affected regions in Central Europe (France, Southern Germany, Switzerland, Northern Italy and Spain) 3 , in particular in cases where information and care of risk groups was absent. Europe-wide, the number of additional deaths was estimated at ca. 35,000. In the summer of 2003, mean temperatures were about 4 to 5.5 °C above the long-term average. This lies approximately within the upper threshold of the expected temperature increase by 2050. In this case, assuming that the vari-
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Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT

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