Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT

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Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Health 71 Mortality Relative Risk Temperature Temperature Fig. 1: Relationship between mortality and temperature on the northern (left) and southern side (right) of the Alps within the period 1990–2003. The temperature range with the lowest mortality lies at ca. 21 °C on the northern side of the Alps, about 3.5 °C lower than on the southern side, with ca. 24.5 °C. (Data source: L. Grize, ISPM Basel) ability of annual summer temperatures does not change, the conditions in 2003 would therefore already correspond to the average in 2050. Even for the medium scenario with an average temperature increase of about 2.5 °C, the 2003 values would occur every few years. The summer 2003 heat waves caused about 1000 additional deaths in Switzerland, of which about one third is attributable to the elevated ozone concentrations. It is probable, that a portion of the heat-related deaths included people who were in a critical state of health and who would have died soon even without the heat. The greatly increased mortality rate can, however, not solely be explained by these cases, as no compensatory decrease could be observed in the following months. Heat and work Humans need to keep their core body temperature constant. It is raised by physical labour, and with it the tolerance for heat declines. Heat waves can affect job performance. In medium latitudes (Central Europe, US, Australia), a decline in mental and physical job performance is detectable at temperatures above 30 °C. 4,5 High humidity in combination with heat further impairs job performance. People are able to adapt to a slow increase in the mean temperature. A comparison with southern countries shows that labour and efficiency are indeed possible at higher temperatures. Thus, the future increase in mean Mortality Relative Risk temperature will have little effect on job performance. In contrast, rapid adaptation to heat waves is difficult. Therefore, the expected increase in heat waves may negatively affect job performance if adequate adaptations or measures are missing. Repeatedly in the past, the working environment changed rapidly and strongly due to innovations. Thus, 40 years ago, the spread of computers and internet was not foreseeable. In parallel to this development, the majority of jobs in Switzerland in recent decades have switched from physical outdoor activities to sedentary work in offices and indoors. The future relevance of climate to the working environment in comparison to other changes is therefore hard to estimate. Measures and uncertainties The effects of heat waves can be mitigated by various measures, such as early warning systems, organising the care of high-risk groups and informing the population. The first measures were taken in Switzerland after the heat wave summer of 2003. The Federal Office of Public Health made information and fact sheets available 6 , and MeteoSwiss (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology) set up a heat-wave early warning system. The widespread use of air conditioning is considered problematic from the perspectives of energy use and climate policy, since energy use increases and – depending on the source
72 Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 | Health of energy – greenhouse gas emissions rise (see Energy chapter). Well-being can be increased through improved and adapted construction methods, such as better insulation and smaller windows in buildings, or ventilation shafts and green belts in cities. In this regard, city planning is particularly challenged because health problems due to heat predominantly occur in cities. Not to be forgotten is the danger that protection against the cold is neglected because cold spells are getting rarer. Extreme cold spells may therefore have more serious health effects. During hot periods, the work situation can be improved by adapting working hours or by introducing longer breaks (siestas). In the case of extreme heat, health risks may be mitigated by extra days off. The most important open question concerns the time it will take individuals and the entire population to adapt to the new conditions. A comparison of the relationship between temperature and mortality for the years 1960–1975 with current numbers could provide an indication of the adaptability of the population over a few decades. It is also not clear to what extent the weather conditions of the previous winter influence the health effects of a heat wave in the following summer. 3. Other extreme events: floods, landslides, storms The risk due to natural hazards also grows with the increase in extreme events. Floods, mudslides and stronger storms result in death and injuries, and also have severe psychological effects. These effects can only partially be countered by preventive measures (protective structures, etc.). The frequency and intensity of extreme events will change as a result of climate change 7 (see also Extreme events section in Background chapter). Floods and debris flows will probably increase due to more frequent heavy precipitation (see fig. 2). Rockfalls will probably increase as well. Based on current understanding, the higher energy content of the atmosphere will not affect the frequency of storms but rather their strength. Extreme events sometimes have disastrous effects. They cause death and result in damage to property. The latter may seriously impact health if the properties affected are important for supply and health care (hospitals, routes of transport, etc.) or are used to store or process toxic substances. The psychological effects of extreme events should also not be underestimated. The people affected are often traumatised after the event. In comparison to the heat-wave summer of 2003, floods, landslides and storms cause less deaths (20 deaths in the year 2000 caused by landslides/ floods). On the other hand, the loss of years of life is within the same order of magnitude in both cases, since heat waves mainly affect the elderly population, while floods, landslides and storms often also claim the lives of younger people. Water pollution due to floods In the case of floods, sewage plants and sewers may overflow and sewage or toxic substances may endanger the health of the population. However, the risk of drinking water contamination is small in Switzerland. The drinking water predominantly comes from ground or spring water (see Water management chapter). It does happen that drinking water is contaminated locally by floods, as the floods in autumn 2005 showed. However, the monitoring of drinking water works so well that the population can be informed in time and the water supply secured by other sources until the original supply is restored. Up to now, there have been very few cases of health problems caused by contaminated drinking water and this is unlikely to change with climate change before 2050.
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