Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT
Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT
Climate Change and Switzerland 2050 - OcCC - SCNAT
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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>and</strong> Switzerl<strong>and</strong> <strong>2050</strong> | Health 71<br />
Mortality Relative Risk<br />
Temperature Temperature<br />
Fig. 1: Relationship between mortality <strong>and</strong> temperature on the northern (left) <strong>and</strong> southern side (right) of the Alps within the<br />
period 1990–2003. The temperature range with the lowest mortality lies at ca. 21 °C on the northern side of the Alps, about<br />
3.5 °C lower than on the southern side, with ca. 24.5 °C. (Data source: L. Grize, ISPM Basel)<br />
ability of annual summer temperatures does<br />
not change, the conditions in 2003 would therefore<br />
already correspond to the average in <strong>2050</strong>.<br />
Even for the medium scenario with an average<br />
temperature increase of about 2.5 °C, the 2003<br />
values would occur every few years.<br />
The summer 2003 heat waves caused about<br />
1000 additional deaths in Switzerl<strong>and</strong>, of which<br />
about one third is attributable to the elevated<br />
ozone concentrations. It is probable, that a portion<br />
of the heat-related deaths included people<br />
who were in a critical state of health <strong>and</strong> who<br />
would have died soon even without the heat. The<br />
greatly increased mortality rate can, however,<br />
not solely be explained by these cases, as no<br />
compensatory decrease could be observed in the<br />
following months.<br />
Heat <strong>and</strong> work<br />
Humans need to keep their core body temperature<br />
constant. It is raised by physical labour, <strong>and</strong><br />
with it the tolerance for heat declines. Heat waves<br />
can affect job performance. In medium latitudes<br />
(Central Europe, US, Australia), a decline in mental<br />
<strong>and</strong> physical job performance is detectable<br />
at temperatures above 30 °C. 4,5 High humidity<br />
in combination with heat further impairs job<br />
performance.<br />
People are able to adapt to a slow increase in<br />
the mean temperature. A comparison with<br />
southern countries shows that labour <strong>and</strong><br />
efficiency are indeed possible at higher temperatures.<br />
Thus, the future increase in mean<br />
Mortality Relative Risk<br />
temperature will have little effect on job performance.<br />
In contrast, rapid adaptation to<br />
heat waves is difficult. Therefore, the expected<br />
increase in heat waves may negatively affect<br />
job performance if adequate adaptations or<br />
measures are missing.<br />
Repeatedly in the past, the working environment<br />
changed rapidly <strong>and</strong> strongly due to<br />
innovations. Thus, 40 years ago, the spread of<br />
computers <strong>and</strong> internet was not foreseeable.<br />
In parallel to this development, the majority<br />
of jobs in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> in recent decades have<br />
switched from physical outdoor activities to<br />
sedentary work in offices <strong>and</strong> indoors. The<br />
future relevance of climate to the working<br />
environment in comparison to other changes is<br />
therefore hard to estimate.<br />
Measures <strong>and</strong> uncertainties<br />
The effects of heat waves can be mitigated by<br />
various measures, such as early warning systems,<br />
organising the care of high-risk groups<br />
<strong>and</strong> informing the population. The first measures<br />
were taken in Switzerl<strong>and</strong> after the heat<br />
wave summer of 2003. The Federal Office of<br />
Public Health made information <strong>and</strong> fact sheets<br />
available 6 , <strong>and</strong> MeteoSwiss (Federal Office of<br />
Meteorology <strong>and</strong> Climatology) set up a heat-wave<br />
early warning system.<br />
The widespread use of air conditioning is considered<br />
problematic from the perspectives of<br />
energy use <strong>and</strong> climate policy, since energy<br />
use increases <strong>and</strong> – depending on the source