To e Cai ni Legislatu Regula S in 2009-10 - Streetsblog San Francisco

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Economic Outlook 72 The outlook for the national economy is for modest growth in 2010, moderate growth in 2011 and 2012: • • Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2010 and 2.9 percent in 2011 and 2012, as compared to falling by 2.5 percent in 2009 and the 2.9-percent average growth rate from 1988 to 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment is forecast to fall by 0.9 percent in 2010, and grow by 1.7 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012, as compared to a decline of 3.8 percent in 2009 and the 1.4-percent average growth rate from 1988 to 2008. The outlook for the California economy is modest growth in 2010 followed by moderate growth in 2011 and good growth in 2012: • • Personal income is projected to grow 2.4 percent in 2010, 3.6 percent in 2011, and 4.8 percent in 2012, as compared to falling by 2.8 percent in 2009 and the 5.6-percent average growth rate from 1988 to 2008. Nonfarm payroll employment is forecast to fall by 0.7 percent in 2010 and grow by 1.3 percent in 2011 and 1.9 percent in 2012, as compared to falling by 5.6 in 2009 and the 1.3-percent average growth rate from 1988 to 2008. The Nation – Digging out of the Hole Output of the national economy grew by a 2.2-percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2009 (Figure ECO-01). It was the first gain since the second quarter of 2008. In between were consecutive quarters with a cumulative decline of almost 12 percent, the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. In the entire series of quarterly real GDP, which begins in the first quarter of 1947, there is only one instance of consecutive quarters with a cumulative decline in real GDP that was greater: the fourth quarter of 1957 and the first quarter of 1958. What started as a housing sector slump in 2005 and turned into a generalized economic slump in 2008 has become a consumption slump. Consumer expenditures fell sharply in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Since then, consumer spending has been flat. There will not be much growth in the national economy if the consumer stays on the sideline. Currently consumers have plenty of reasons to be cautious — fear of job loss, high debt burdens, eroded home equity, and tight credit. What would best boost consumer spending now is better employment growth. Some modest progress has been made on that front as monthly job losses have been trending downward since February Governor’s Budget Summary 2010-11
6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2007:Q1 2007:Q2 of 2009. November brought a relatively very small loss of 11,000. It should not be long before employment starts to increase. With consumer spending continuing to be weak, spending on new equipment and software will likely be lackluster. The outlook for spending on new structures is Governor’s Budget Summary 2010-11 Economic Outlook even worse. Retail and office space have been over-built, resulting in high vacancy rates. Single-family housing is showing some signs of life. Residential construction has trended up in recent months but from very low levels. New home sales have trended up during most of 2009, with perhaps some help from the federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. The inventory of new homes available for sale is at its lowest level since March 1971. Sales of existing homes are soaring, but a significant number of them are distressed properties. 2007:Q3 Manufacturing is growing, but from a low level. Figure ECO-01 U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Quarter-to-Quarter growth, annualized Source: U.S. Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2007:Q4 2008:Q1 2008:Q2 2008:Q3 2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 73
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To e California Legislatu Regular S
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Dear Governor: DEPARTMENT OF FINANC
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Introduction In 2009, the United St
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150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110
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Reforming the Federal-State Relatio
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Trigger Reductions and Revenues The
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The Governor’s Budget projects th
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Summary Charts 12 Figure SUM-01 201
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Summary Charts 14 Personal Income T
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Summary Charts 16 Corrections and R
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Summary of Significant Changes by M
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Summary of Significant Changes by M
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Page 79: Economic Outlook Governor’s Budge
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Page 89 and 90: General Fund Revenue General Fund 2
Page 91 and 92: The budget’s revenue estimates in
Page 93 and 94: and $4.456 billion in 2010-11. The
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Page 97 and 98: Corporation Tax Corporation tax rev
Page 99 and 100: In 2008, $123.5 billion in taxable
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Page 103 and 104: Other Revenues Governor’s Budget
Page 105 and 106: Chapter 322, Statutes of 1998 estab
Page 107: containing 15 percent or less gasol
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Page 113 and 114: Statewide Financial Information Pro
Page 115 and 116: Reference to Schedule General Fund
Page 117 and 118: Fiscal Estate Alcoholic Motor Year
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SCHEDULE 9 COMPARATIVE STATEMENT OF
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SCHEDULE 9 -- Continued COMPARATIVE
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SCHEDULE 10 -- Continued SUMMARY OF
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SCHEDULE 11 STATEMENT OF GENERAL OB
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SCHEDULE 12B REVENUES TO EXCLUDED F
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SCHEDULE 12C NON-TAX REVENUES IN FU
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From Corporations Fund, State (0067
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Finance Glossary of Accounting and
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Augmentation An authorized increase
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Budget Revision (BR) A document, us
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appeal to continue the positions. I
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expenditure totals the amount of en
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Fiscal Committees Committees of mem
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Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO
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Overhead Those elements of cost nec
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(K-14) beginning with fiscal year 1
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savings is estimated on the basis o
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Senate The upper house of Californi
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such that interference with a contr
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