National Fuel Quality Standards Regulation Impact Statement 1 ...

Table 5.2 gives the estimated reduction in emissions over time for the major pollutants of
concern under Scenario 4 modelled in the Fuel Quality Review, which has been taken as
the indicator of the costs of implementing the Commonwealth proposal.
Table 5.2: Reductions in emissions under Scenario 4
Pollutant
Emissions Reduction %
2000 - 2010
Hydrocarbons 20 - 25 29
Oxides of Nitrogen 34 69
Particulate Matter (PM10) 25 33
Benzene 51 72
Carbon Monoxide 45-51 66
Greenhouse gas emissions
Emissions Reduction %
2000 - 2020
The Fuel Quality Review assessed changes to transport-sourced greenhouse emissions
and changes to greenhouse emissions from more intensive refining operations.
Greenhouse gas emissions over the long term are expected to be lower as a result of
improved fuel quality specifications associated with national fuel quality standards,
relative to the business-as-usual scenario.
Emissions from road transport are estimated to increase by 24% under business as usual
(Scenario 1) for the period 2000 to 2010, and by only 15% over the same period for the
other scenarios (Scenarios 2-6). The 9% improvement in the latter estimate is predicated
on the assumption that the Government expectation of 15% improvement over businessas-usual
National Average Fuel Consumption (NAFC) target would be achieved in 2010.
Setting and achieving a challenging NAFC target in 2010 forms part of the
Environmental Strategy for the Motor Vehicle Industry, which was announced in the
Prime Minister’s 1997 statement Safeguarding the Future.
Improved fuel parameters will help achieve improved fuel efficiencies, which would
facilitate setting and achieving better NAFC targets. This in turn will translate to
greenhouse benefits. The fuel parameters key to better fuel efficiencies are high-octane
petrol, which enables higher thermal efficiencies to be achieved, and low sulfur content,
which is essential for the deployment of advanced fuel efficiency technologies, such as