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MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN AGRICULTURE: AN EXAMINATION OF DEMAND-SIDE CONSTRAINTS ON AGRICULTURAL GROWTH Xinshen Diao 1 , Paul Dorosh 2 , and Shaikh Mahfuzur Rahman 3 with Siet Meijer 4 , Mark Rosegrant 5 , Yukitsugu Yanoma 6 , and Weibo Li 7 1. INTRODUCTION 8 Rapid growth in the agricultural sector is central to any strategy for reducing hunger and poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Increased output of food crops augments food supplies and may well reduce the real price of food. Moreover, agricultural growth (even outside of the food sector) boosts incomes, particularly of households in rural areas, both directly and through multiplier effects on other sectors, thereby increasing household access to food. Technology exists to increase agricultural productivity (though additional resources for research and extension may be required for adaptation to local agroecological and socio-economic conditions, and to promote rapid adoption of new technologies). However, lack of marketing opportunities for increased agricultural production could constrain agricultural growth and prevent the sector from serving as an engine of growth on a scale required to significantly reduce hunger and poverty in SSA. High market transaction costs, weak domestic consumer demand, and lack of export possibilities suggest that output increases could lead to a sharp decline in producer prices, inhibiting growth in both production and farmer incomes. Thus, there is need to analyze demand constraints on agricultural growth, including export demand, regional trade and 1 Research Fellow, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI. 2 Former Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI; currently Senior Economist, The World Bank 3 Former Research Assistant, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI. 4 Former Research Analyst, Environmental and Production Technology Division, IFPRI. 5 Division Director, Environmental and Production Technology Division, IFPRI. 6 Senior Research Assistant, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI. 7 Former Senior Research Assistant, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, IFPRI. 8 This chapter was written by Xinshen Diao and Paul Dorosh.
Page 1 and 2: DSGD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1 MARKET
Page 3: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank t
Page 6 and 7: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Some basic
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Monthly a
Page 10 and 11: imports 25 percent of its food grai
Page 14 and 15: domestic demand, and of policies th
Page 16 and 17: PLAN OF THE PAPER This paper addres
Page 18 and 19: espectively) declined sharply in th
Page 20 and 21: year. The erosion of SSA’s market
Page 22 and 23: Table 4—World and SSA exports of
Page 24 and 25: Staples Non-traditional Traditional
Page 26 and 27: Among the four commodity groups, in
Page 28 and 29: Available data suggest that OECD pr
Page 30 and 31: of non-traditional commodity export
Page 32 and 33: horticulture appeared to contribute
Page 34 and 35: The main exporters are South Africa
Page 36 and 37: Guinea, countries where population
Page 38 and 39: Table 9—Value of cut flower expor
Page 40 and 41: operating costs, not only with the
Page 42 and 43: 3. PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED MARKET F
Page 44 and 45: If unrecorded trade, mainly intra-r
Page 46 and 47: The potential market demand and tra
Page 48 and 49: Table 15—Summary of projected ann
Page 50 and 51: 2015 (2011 thousand tons, 46 percen
Page 52 and 53: e. Reductions in marketing margins
Page 54 and 55: the model as specified is designed
Page 56 and 57: a. High growth of non-traditional a
Page 58 and 59: Table 18—Agricultural growth scen
Page 60 and 61: Table 19—Multipliers of the world
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products in the region will provide
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Numerous earlier studies have concl
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productivity, open unemployment of
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the scenario. In total, the non-agr
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are five countries or sub-regions,
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increases by 2.5 percent in the sam
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product exports), but this success
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scientists and knowledgeable observ
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REFERENCES Adelman, Irma. 1984. “
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Minot, N., and M. Ngigi. 2002. “F
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Staples Non-traditional Traditional
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Appendix I Table 4—West African m
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Staples Non-traditional Traditional
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Appendix I Table 8—Projected annu
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Appendix I Table 10—Projected ann
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Appendix I Table 12—Agricultural
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Page 96 and 97:
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APPENDIX II: COUNTRY CASE STUDIES 4
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Appendix II table 1 shows that duri
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parliament of Mozambique. The bill
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Appendix II Table 3—Agricultural
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the high value (nutrient value per
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Export Promotion Policies Over the
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major traditional and non-tradition
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In 1999 the production as well as e
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Kenya’s fish exports were not rea
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APPENDIX III: LIST OF COMMODITIES A
Page 118 and 119:
APPENDIX IV: COUNTRY AND SECTOR AGG
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