Market Opportunities for African Agriculture - International Food ...

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The potential market demand and trade opportunities are further quantitatively assessed by employing IFPRI’s IMPACT model. Analysis of similar issues using a world CGE model is presented in the next chapter. FUTURE DEMAND AND SUPPLY: IMPACT MODEL SIMULATION RESULTS IFPRI’s IMPACT model is a world model of agricultural supply, demand and prices covering 36 countries and regions, and 16 agricultural commodity groups, including all cereals, roots and tubers, and livestock products (a detailed commodity list is in Appendix III). The model simulates a competitive agricultural market for crops and livestock, with separate sets of supply and demand equations, and with domestic prices linked to world prices through fixed marketing margins and trade distorting policies (i.e., producer and consumer subsidy equivalents). World prices adjust to clear international markets (net exports or imports of the world are zero). 16 a. The Baseline: Balanced Growth in SSA Food Demand and Production The IMPACT baseline scenario models a “business as usual” growth in SSA food demand and production, with the growth rate varying across sub-regions. The exogenous annual growth rates of GDP are chosen as 3.2 to 3.8 percent for the four SSA regions between 1997 and 2015. 17 With a 2.4 percent annual population growth rate in the same period, per capita GDP annual grow rate is equivalent to 0.8 to 1.4 percent, close to the current situation in SSA. The annual growth rate of area cultivated of food crops is less than one percent, with an annual trend growth rate in yields exogenously set at one to two percent. The annual growth rate of the number of head of livestock is assumed to be two percent; the productivity growth rate (kg/head) is approximately one percent. With these assumptions, the model generates a “balanced” growth situation for meat and cereal production and demand in SSA (table 14). Meat demand and production increase by 3.2 percent per year, and cereal demand and production increase by 2.8 16 For further details of the IMPACT model see Rosegrant et al. (2002). 17 The baseline annual GDP growth rate is exogenously assumed to be 3.3 percent for northern SSA, 3.8 percent of central and western SSA, 3.2 percent for southern SSA, and 3.5 percent for eastern SSA. Lists of the countries included in the four regions are in Appendix III. 34
percent. However, because rapid growth in meat demand and production leads to sharp increases in feed demand, growth in maize demand is faster than growth in maize production (2.7 versus 2.5 percent; Table 15). Table 14—Baseline projection of meat and cereal production, demand and net imports in Sub-Saharan Africa Production Demand Net imports 1997 2015 1997 2015 1997 2015 --------------------- 1000 mt --------------------- All meat 5,407 9,527 5,505 9,692 153 164 All cereals 69,303 114,000 82,505 136,022 12,374 22,021 Maize 26,218 40,990 28,650 45,971 1,578 4,981 Calories available per capita per day 1997 2,232 2015 2,387 Sources: 1997 are FAO data, 2015 are IMPACT baseline simulations. Given that SSA was a food deficit region in 1997, the gap between food demand and production, (especially for cereals), widens by 2015 even though demand and production grow at a similar rate. There are marked regional differences in the patterns of growth in production and demand, however (Appendix I Table 7). Demand grows faster than production in eastern Africa, while production grows faster than demand in central and western SSA, implying increased opportunities for intra-regional trade (Appendix I Tables 8 – 11). 35
Page 1 and 2: DSGD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1 MARKET
Page 3: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank t
Page 6 and 7: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Some basic
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Monthly a
Page 10 and 11: imports 25 percent of its food grai
Page 13 and 14: MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN AG
Page 15 and 16: Table 1—Some basic facts about Su
Page 17 and 18: We begin with a review of broad tre
Page 19 and 20: Table 2—World and Sub-Saharan cou
Page 21 and 22: Table 3—Composition of exports fr
Page 23 and 24: This is mainly because of a signifi
Page 25 and 26: Staples Non-traditional Traditional
Page 27 and 28: impact on export earnings and incom
Page 29 and 30: ooms of the 1970s, but the trends f
Page 31 and 32: produced by smallholders, resulting
Page 33 and 34: Table 7—Export of fish and fisher
Page 35 and 36: Table 8—Summary of food safety re
Page 37 and 38: flowers and foliage to the EU. The
Page 39 and 40: The emergence and growth of the Ken
Page 41 and 42: SUMMARY Currently, the agricultural
Page 43 and 44: Table 12—Sub-Saharan African majo
Page 45: Besides the demand-side constraint,
Page 49 and 50: pace, by 4.15 percent per year thro
Page 51 and 52: equivalent to 9 to 11 percent of ma
Page 53 and 54: esult in increased imports of lives
Page 55 and 56: this study is to evaluate African c
Page 57 and 58: In this scenario, where non-traditi
Page 59 and 60: more employment opportunities for u
Page 61 and 62: of SSA (4 percent). No additional p
Page 63 and 64: d. Combining high growth livestock
Page 65 and 66: output (Table 20). Because the chan
Page 67 and 68: This increase in TFP in the transpo
Page 69 and 70: scenarios, we find that some countr
Page 71 and 72: Per capita annual growth of cereal
Page 73 and 74: Figure 3—Impact of TFP growth on
Page 75 and 76: too long to make a significant cont
Page 77 and 78: particularly important, and better
Page 79 and 80: Franco, M., and R. Godoy. 1993. “
Page 87 and 88: Appendix I Table 7—Baseline Proje
Page 89 and 90: Appendix I Table 9—Projected annu
Page 91 and 92: Appendix I Table 11—Projected ann
Page 93 and 94: Appendix I Table 13—Agricultural
Page 95 and 96: Appendix I Table 15—Agricultural
Page 97 and 98:
Appendix I Table 17—Agricultural
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Appendix II Table 1—Agricultural
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and in 1998 Mozambique contributed
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from 56.5 percent in 1981-83 to 40.
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Uganda has distinct competitive adv
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Victoria and their Natural Carrying
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Macroeconomic Policies In 1991, tax
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Appendix II Table 4—Agricultural
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inappropriate seeds and fertilizers
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i.e. upgrading equipments and labor
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9. Ghana 10. Guinea 11. Guinea-Biss
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21. Sugar 22. Processed food produc
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