Market Opportunities for African Agriculture - International Food ...

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3. PROSPECTS FOR INCREASED MARKET FOOD DEMAND 14 Unlike most traditional and non-traditional agricultural exports in SSA, domestic demand and production of food crops and livestock products far exceeds internationally traded quantities. Thus, changes in domestic incomes and prices can potentially have a large impact on overall demand for these commodities. In this chapter we first examine the current size of the food crop and livestock markets in SSA. Then, in order to assess the extent to which demand may constrain productivity increases in these sectors and income growth, we use IFPRI’s IMPACT model to simulate potential future demand and prices under alternative scenarios of productivity and income increases. PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND TRADE IN FOOD CROPS We calculate annual average production, consumption and trade for three major tradable grain crops in SSA and in the three sub-regions of the SSA (Table 12). Besides these three crops, other grain crops and non-grain food crops, such as roots and tubers, are produced and consumed in the region. As their trade shares are small, we do not analyze and report on them here. Among the three crops, maize dominates SSA grain production, as the region in total produced 36.5 million tons per year on average between 1996 and 2000, and accounted for about 70 percent of region’s total grain production. Within each region, the situation is quite similar, i.e., in each region 60 to 85 percent of grain production is maize production. On the consumption side, while maize is still the most important food crop among grains, its share in total grain consumption is about 55 percent in an average year, much lower than its share in grain production. Among the three regions, share of maize in grain consumption varies, from the lowest (40 percent) in West Africa to the highest (73 percent) in Southern Africa. 14 This chapter was written by Xinshen Diao and Paul Dorosh, with help from Siet Meijier, Mark Rosegrant, and Weibo Li. 30
Table 12—Sub-Saharan African major food crop demand and supply -- 1996-2000 annual average Production Exports Imports Consumption REGIONS Major commodities (Million tons) (Million tons) (Million tons) (Million tons) East Africa Southern Africa West Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Source: FAO data The SSA, and the three regions within it, are grain deficit regions, as regional production can only meet 75 percent of SSA’s demand for the three grains in total. In terms of maize, production and consumption is almost balanced, with only a 5 percent deficit, less than 2 million tons per year on average. Such maize deficit is mainly in East Africa (1.5 million tons), while maize consumption and production are almost balanced in the other two regions. The situation for the other two grains, wheat and rice, is quite different. Given the level of wheat and rice production is quite low in the region, demand, especially for wheat, has to be satisfied by imports. Imports accounted for 37 percent of rice consumption and 64 percent of wheat consumption per year in SSA. Among the three regions, the shares of imports in total rice and wheat consumption vary. For example, rice imports only accounted for 17 percent of consumption in East Africa, but accounted for 85 percent in southern Africa. According to UN trade data, intra-regional maize trade accounted for more than 50 percent of regional total maize imports (table 6). This ratio is high in East Africa (60 percent) and low in West Africa (23 percent). Moreover, intra-SSA regional trade is actually intra each region’s trade, and the amount of the cross-sub-region’s trade is low. 31 Consumption Export share Import share per capita in production in consumption (Kgs) (%) (%) Maize 10.26 0.10 0.82 11.54 43.9 1.0 7.1 Wheat 2.08 0.05 2.71 4.83 18.4 2.3 56.2 Rice 3.71 0.01 0.77 4.54 17.3 0.3 16.9 Sub-total 16.04 0.16 4.30 20.90 79.5 1.0 20.6 Maize 16.01 1.59 1.41 16.35 146.4 9.9 8.6 Wheat 2.57 0.29 1.85 4.31 38.6 11.4 42.9 Rice 0.28 0.03 1.49 1.76 15.7 8.9 85.1 Sub-total 18.86 1.91 4.75 22.42 200.8 10.1 21.2 Maize 10.18 0.03 0.26 10.46 43.4 0.3 2.4 Wheat 0.10 0.08 3.57 3.66 15.2 75.7 97.5 Rice 7.34 0.01 4.47 11.95 49.6 0.2 37.4 Sub-total 17.62 0.12 8.29 26.08 108.1 0.7 31.8 Maize 36.45 1.73 2.48 38.35 77.9 4.7 6.5 Wheat 4.75 0.42 8.13 12.80 24.1 8.8 63.5 Rice 11.33 0.05 6.73 18.24 27.5 0.4 36.9 Sub-total 52.53 2.19 17.34 69.40 129.48 4.2 25.0
Page 1 and 2: DSGD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1 MARKET
Page 3: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank t
Page 6 and 7: LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Some basic
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Monthly a
Page 10 and 11: imports 25 percent of its food grai
Page 13 and 14: MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN AG
Page 15 and 16: Table 1—Some basic facts about Su
Page 17 and 18: We begin with a review of broad tre
Page 19 and 20: Table 2—World and Sub-Saharan cou
Page 21 and 22: Table 3—Composition of exports fr
Page 23 and 24: This is mainly because of a signifi
Page 25 and 26: Staples Non-traditional Traditional
Page 27 and 28: impact on export earnings and incom
Page 29 and 30: ooms of the 1970s, but the trends f
Page 31 and 32: produced by smallholders, resulting
Page 33 and 34: Table 7—Export of fish and fisher
Page 35 and 36: Table 8—Summary of food safety re
Page 37 and 38: flowers and foliage to the EU. The
Page 39 and 40: The emergence and growth of the Ken
Page 41: SUMMARY Currently, the agricultural
Page 45 and 46: Besides the demand-side constraint,
Page 47 and 48: percent. However, because rapid gro
Page 49 and 50: pace, by 4.15 percent per year thro
Page 51 and 52: equivalent to 9 to 11 percent of ma
Page 53 and 54: esult in increased imports of lives
Page 55 and 56: this study is to evaluate African c
Page 57 and 58: In this scenario, where non-traditi
Page 59 and 60: more employment opportunities for u
Page 61 and 62: of SSA (4 percent). No additional p
Page 63 and 64: d. Combining high growth livestock
Page 65 and 66: output (Table 20). Because the chan
Page 67 and 68: This increase in TFP in the transpo
Page 69 and 70: scenarios, we find that some countr
Page 71 and 72: Per capita annual growth of cereal
Page 73 and 74: Figure 3—Impact of TFP growth on
Page 75 and 76: too long to make a significant cont
Page 77 and 78: particularly important, and better
Page 79 and 80: Franco, M., and R. Godoy. 1993. “
Page 87 and 88: Appendix I Table 7—Baseline Proje
Page 89 and 90: Appendix I Table 9—Projected annu
Page 91 and 92: Appendix I Table 11—Projected ann
Page 93 and 94:
Appendix I Table 13—Agricultural
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Appendix II Table 1—Agricultural
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and in 1998 Mozambique contributed
Page 103 and 104:
from 56.5 percent in 1981-83 to 40.
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Uganda has distinct competitive adv
Page 107 and 108:
Victoria and their Natural Carrying
Page 109 and 110:
Macroeconomic Policies In 1991, tax
Page 111 and 112:
Appendix II Table 4—Agricultural
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inappropriate seeds and fertilizers
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i.e. upgrading equipments and labor
Page 117 and 118:
9. Ghana 10. Guinea 11. Guinea-Biss
Page 119:
21. Sugar 22. Processed food produc
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