A reproductive health needs assessment in Myanmar

Assuming that:
(1) TFR in 1990 was 2.90 and in 1996 was 2.72;
(1) Ci did not change during the period;
(2) age of marriage increased and therefore, Cm96 < Cm90; and
(3) Cc estimates are as given below.
Cc=l—1.08xuxe
Where u = CPR; and e = average use-effectiveness.
Method (m)
u m (1990)
u m (1996)
Pill/injectable 0.071 0.192
IUD 0.009 0.013
Sterilization 0.055 0.076
Other 0.031 0.045
u
u ( m ) 0.166 0.326
e 0.898 0.898
Cc
0.84 0.68
e m
0.90
0.95
1.00
0.70
We estimate that Cu96 > Cu90, which shows that Cu increased during the period 1990 to
1996 suggesting that the extent of induced abortion declined.
Some concern has been expressed regarding the total fertility rate estimates, and many people
believe that these figures are more conservative. If we assume that the TFR in 1990 was 3.4,
and 3.1 in 1996, Cu96 is still estimated to be higher than Cu90. Thus, with even these higher
fertility rate estimates, there is no indication that the abortion rate has increased since 1990.