A reproductive health needs assessment in Myanmar

Annex IV
Estimating the Extent of Abortions
Induced abortion is illegal in Myanmar. However, considerable anecdotal evidence suggests
that abortion-related complications account for a significant proportion of all gynaecological
admissions in the hospitals. Unfortunately, reliable estimate of the extent of abortions is not
available as the procedure is illicit.
Indirect methods of estimation of the extent of abortions rely on either relating fertility to
contraceptive usage or on hospital admissions for abortion-related complications. As recent
data on hospital admissions for abortion-related complications are incomplete, we rely on the
former procedure of using Bongaart’s proximate determinants of fertility.
ESTIMATING IMPACT OF ABORTIONS ON FERTILITY
The Bongaart’s model stipulates that
TFR =
Where:
TFR =
TF =
Cm =
Cc =
Cu =
Ci =
TFxCmxCcxCuxCi
total fertility rate
a constant
index of marriage (equals 1 if all women of reproductive age are married and 0
in the absence of marriage).
index of contraception (equals 1 in the absence of contraception and 0 if all
fecund women use 100 per cent effective contraception.
index of induced abortion (equals 1 in the absence of induced abortion and 0 if
all pregnancies are aborted).
index of post-partum infecundity (equals 1 in the absence of lactation and
post-partum abstinence and 0 if the duration of infecundity is infinite).
The following estimates for the parameters in the above model are derived from the
provisional data available through the FRHS (MOIP 1998a)
Cm = 0.45, Cc = 0.68, and Ci = 0.62.
Applying the model, we estimate that the abortions may be reducing the total fertility rate by
0.33.
CHANGES IN THE EXTENT OF ABORTIONS DURING THE PERIOD 1990-96
Using Bongaarts’ proximate determinants model, we can also analyse whether the extent of
abortions has changed between 1990 (based on the PCFS) and 1996 (based on the FRHS)
TFR96 = Cm96 x Cc96 x Cu96 x Ci96
TFR90 Cm90 Cc90 Cu90 Ci90