UniCredit Bank AG

Outlook and events since 31 December 2009
Management's Discussion and Analysis and the rest of the Annual Report 2009 include statements, expectations
and forecasts concerning the future. These forward-looking statements are based on plans and estimates that are
supported by the information that is available to HVB at the present time. Unless required by law, HVB assumes
no obligation to update these statements in the light of new information or future events. Known or unknown
risks and uncertainties may be entailed in forward-looking statements and the actual results and developments
may thus differ significantly from those expected at present. Such discrepancies may result particularly from
changes to the general economic climate and the competitive situation, developments on international capital
markets, the possible default of borrowers or contracting parties in commercial transactions, the implementation
of restructuring measures, amendments to national and international laws, notably to tax regulations, the
reliability of HVB's risk management procedures and methods as well as other risks, some of which are
described in detail in the Risk Report.
The following comments on the outlook are to be viewed in connection with the comments on the outlook in the
Financial Review and the Risk Report in the consolidated financial statements for the 2009 financial year.
General economic outlook for 2010
HVB expects the global economy to expand by 3.5% in 2010, with the United States growing by 2.5% and the
Euro zone by just 0.9%. Inflation rose again across the globe at the turn of the year. This resulted from a rebound
in oil prices to over USD 70 per barrel (forecast for year-end 2010: USD 90 per barrel). In general, though, price
rises remain very subdued.
Nonetheless, the exporting industry in the Euro zone could benefit from a weaker exchange rate this year. After
the Euro had appreciated hugely against the US Dollar in 2009, the weak growth outlook for peripheral countries
in the Euro zone in particular served to depress the exchange rate from over USD 1.50 to about USD 1.35. HVB
expects the Euro to strengthen slightly, to USD 1.38, through to the end of 2010. Separately from this, the very
high levels of both private and public debt, and the associated major need for consolidation, are likely to slow
economic expansion over the coming years.
The corporate mood in Germany has lightened again at the start of 2010. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose
sharply to 95.8 points at the beginning of the year 2010, after falling to as low as 82.2 points in the wake of the
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