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Montenegro and Serbia. And what was particularly interesting in early 2010, was that Serbia was hoping to move from List Two to List One, from potential to actual candidate. When, in December 2009, the Serbian government handed in its application form to join the EU, it was a very real reminder of the most basic objective of the founding fathers of the European project in the immediate post-war period six decades ago – avoidance of new wars between European countries. The idea was that nations whose economic and social policies had become integrated through membership of the EEC could be assumed to be less likely to declare war on one-another. In this regard, the EEC/EU has been success - ful: there has not been a war between member states. But there have been European wars in recent years, notably the bloody conflicts of the 1990s following the fragmentation of Yugoslavia. And when the wars in the Balkans ended, Serbia was left as a pariah state accused by the international community of genocide, ethnic cleansing and other war crimes. Under the brutal regime of Slobodan Milosevic, Belgrade’s EU membership could not have seemed further away. But Milosevic fell in 2000, and died in 2006 while facing a war crimes trial in the Hague. Now, Serbia has a democra - tising, pro-EU government under Boris Tadic, son of a leading dissident in the Tito era. But Serbian accession to the EU is by no means a foregone conclusion. There are numerous pre-entry conditions that have to be met by any country seeking EU membership, and for Serbia there are particular questions relating to cooperation with the war crimes judicial process. In the Hague of Holland, there is an International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, and the EC has been insisting that Serbia hands over various notorious characters for trial. Serbia took a major step in this direction in 2008 when the leading fugitive was taken into custody. Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader, was arrested while riding on a commuter bus in Belgrade disguised as a ‘new age’ mystic. But the Tribunal also demands that Serbia turn in Ratko Mladic, Milosevic’s top military man in Bosnia. Mr Mladic is accused of genocide following the siege of Sarajevo and the 1. ec.europa.eu/enlargement. massacre of about 8,000 Bosnian muslim males in Srebrenica in 1995. As commander of the Bosnian Serb army, Ratko Mladic is regarded in the Hague as the leading protagonist in the ‘ethnic cleansing’ in Bosnia. It was a horrifying episode in which Milosevic’s Serbia sought to eliminate the non-Serb population of Bosnia. Nothing could be further from the EC’s stated ideals: ❝Liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law. (europa.eu/conditions-for-enlargement) Barriers to entry The rounding up of war criminals is a major pre-requisite to progress on Serbian EU accession. But there are, of course, many other hurdles to be jumped before Serbia – or any other country – is deemed to be ready for full EU membership. In December 2009, Belgrade formally asked the Swedish government (then holders of the rotating six-monthly EU Presidency) for permis - sion to join the EU. Will the application succeed? What are Serbia’s prospects? What happens next? In the enlargement process, if an application is to move forward it has to be given a unanimous thumbs up by the European Council (i.e. the heads of government of the existing member states). The Council reviews an EC overview of the applicant country’s membership suitability before making its decision. Once the green light is given by the European Council, the aspiring EU member has to satisfy the EC’s Copen - hagen Criteria (1993) which set out the political and economic entry conditions: the stability of institutions guaran - teeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights and respect for and protection of minorities. the existence of a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. the ability to take on the obligations of membership, including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union, and the admini - strative capacity to effectively apply and implement the acquis. 1 The Copenhagen Criteria look exacting, difficult for the likes of Serbia, never mind still more primitive applicants – Bosnia or Albania, for instance. But if you are a Serb, Bosnian or Albanian, there is no need to panic: the European Commission is rooting for you and it wants you to join. Indeed, the bureau - crats of Brussels are going to bend over backwards to help you reach the entry standards, grooming you for member - ship and giving you lavish financial aid to pay for the necessary modernisation of your government, economy and society. The Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP) is the programme extended by the European Commission to the applicant nations of the Western Balkans. The SAP role in these obscure, war-torn territories is to help in the stabilising of society, the development of capitalist institutions and the easing of the process of adjustment to the EU’s laws and rules. The SAP includes financial aid from the European Commission, known as Pre-Accession Assistance. The EC sees this as investment in stabilisation, transition and institution building in the countries concerned. From the point of view of a Potential Candidate country, inclusion in the SAP is crucial – and not merely because EC funding will be granted. Above all, SAP inclusion means that the country is considered to be suitable for eventual full EU membership; just as soon as it has made the necessary adjustments, that country will be deemed ready to join. Formal negotiations begin with a period of ‘screening’. The applicant government and the EC meet to consider how prepared the country is for the implementation of the acquis communautaire. This is the vast body of existing EU laws and regulations to which Serbia or Turkey, Albania or Bosnia will be obligated if and when full EU membership is extended. To make the applicant’s life easier – but not that much easier – the acquis is presented in 35 ‘Chapters’. These are bite-sized chunks to be chewed over one at a time in the accession negotiations. An applicant might start by considering whether it can satisfy Chapter 1 which deals with the free movement of goods throughout the EU. Then there is Chapter 2: the free movement of labour. Virtually all of the current Candidates and Potential Candidates face an early barrier in the absence of the kind of civil service sector of a sufficient size, experience and expertise to handle the 36 M ARCH 2010
formidable task of processing the acquis. But more specifically, a country may find particular Chapters present difficulties. Take Turkey, for example. Chapter 1, the free movement of goods, raises questions about Turkish readiness for EU entry: the Turks refuse to receive air and sea transport from Cyprus since Turkey does not recognise the legitimacy of the Greek Cypriot government. But the latter is, of course, an EU member, and without a solution to the political stalemate in Cyprus, no meaningful progress can be made in the Turkish membership negotiations. It is fairly safe to assume that several other Chapters of the acquis are going to prove particularly difficult in the Western Balkans. For example, Chapter 5 insists that there must be free competition in public sector procure - ment – a requirement that will almost certainly increase local unemployment in Croatia. And Chapter 15 will necessitate a major upheaval in Bosnian energy policy: the energy sector of the applicant country must be secure, environmentally friendly and open to competition. For Albania, compliance with Chapter 27, which covers numerous acts and regulations relating to EU environment policy, will inevitably call for expensive investment. The application by Turkey for EU membership If Turkey complies with the environ - mental requirements of Chapter 27, it is expected to be very (prohibitively?) expensive. The total cost? About €150 billion. But what about Turkey and Chapters 23 and 24? These deal with a collection of issues guaranteed to provoke additional anxiety in Ankara: fundamental rights, justice and freedom, an independent judiciary, guaranteed fair trials and so on. About 20% of the population of Turkey is Kurdish. For 25 years, there has been a civil war between the Kurdistan People’s Party, which wants independence for the Kurds, and the Turkish Army. Modern Turkey was founded by Ataturk in 1923 as a secular state, but today observers have often accused the governing party of wanting to turn Turkey into an Islamic state. On three occasions, the Turkish military has intervened in government. This is an exceptionally unpromising basis on which to seek EU membership. Nevertheless, formal EC accession negotiations with Turkey began in 2005. Among the Candidate and Potential Candidate countries Turkey stands out – it is significantly different from the other aspirant EU members in several respects. Unlike Iceland or the ex- Yugoslavian nations, Turkey’s desire to join the EU is not new – it goes back more than forty years. What is particularly remarkable, however, is that Turkey seeks to join Europe, but it is a country largely located in Asia. If you are in France or Germany, Italy or Spain, Turkey seems significantly more ‘foreign’ than other existing EU member states or candidates for membership. Why? Firstly, in Turkey, the Islamic religion predominates. This is in stark contrast to Europe’s Christian tradition. And where the next-door neighbours of such long-standing EU members as, say, France and Germany include Belgium, Luxembourg and Switzerland, definitively European entities and like-minded social demo - cracies, Turkey shares borders with Syria, Iran and Iraq. Some observers argue that the expansion of the EU into the Middle East – via a Turkish accession – would be dangerous and inappropriate. The prospect of Turkish EU membership has been particularly unpopular in France. In 2005, to appease public opinion, Jacques Chirac went as far as to commit the government to holding a referendum on Turkish accession should the day arrive when the European Commission declares that Turkey is ready for EU membership. And as for the new Formal negotiations for Turkey to join the EU began in 2005. incumbent in the Elysee Palace, Nicolas Sarkozy is not a supporter of Turkey-inthe-EU. What does the new President have to say on the subject? Sarko says, it would be a lie to tell Turkey that it will eventually gain full EU membership just as it would be a lie to teach children in France that Europe’s frontiers extend as far as Iraq and Syria. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, and we can assume that the French electorate won’t vote for Turkey in a referendum. But that would be a grave mistake, say Turkey’s supporters. The latter argue that, above all, Turkey is a crucial strategic location, an important bridge between the West and the Islamic world. Thus, they say, it is important to incorporate the Turks into the EU asap. Indeed, it is for this reason that the US has offered long-standing support of Turkey’s EU bid, and it is why Turkey is regarded as an important member of Nato. Interestingly, however, the Parliament in Ankara voted to forbid the launch of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 from Turkish territory. The application by Albania for EU membership Milan, Milan, vaffanculo, chorus the Neapolitan hooligans in the San Siro stadium at an AC Milan v Napoli match. Translation: “Supporters of Milan, you are advised to go forth and multiply”. The Milanese tifosi reply with an angry chant. Albanese, Albanese, they cry. It means, “You are Albanians”. And it’s regarded as a pretty serious insult. In reality, however, the Italians are soon going to have to become accus - M ARCH 2010
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