June 2011 - Parsons Brinckerhoff

Perspectives
“It is the general
observation within
the Beltway that if
a transportation bill
is not substantially
complete going into
this fall; the issue
will be kicked over
for whoever is in
the White House
and Congress come
2013.”
program as well as a local initiative in Los Angeles County to deliver their 30-year
transportation program in as few as 10 years.
Elsewhere in the Senate, committees are beginning to pull together their respective
initiatives. The Senate Banking Committee, now chaired by Senator Tim Johnson (D-
ND), has held hearings and is reportedly producing a draft transit bill. Although the
language of that bill has not yet surfaced, the Administration has provided significant
input regarding their program design through the vehicle of hearing testimony
by FTA Administrator Peter Rogoff. In particular, the Administrator continues to
advocate for enhanced safety jurisdiction for FTA. A transit safety bill was reported
out of the Senate committee in the last Congress, but is not in favor with the House.
In the Senate Commerce Committee, work is underway on a number of regulatory
sections within their traditional jurisdiction, drawing on Administration thinking
regarding safety issues for autos, trucks, pipelines, and hazardous materials. The
Commerce Committee will speak for the Senate with regard to high-speed and
intercity rail, and is likely to take a position quite different from that of House
Chairman Mica. The Committee is also showing interest in broader transportation
policy and funding issues, having now introduced separate bills regarding
performance measures, freight policy, and funding for major projects through an
Infrastructure Fund and through programs modeled on the Recovery Act’s TIGER
initiative.
More specifics on both the House and Senate proposals will hopefully emerge over
the next few weeks, but a realistic assessment of achieving passage has to be based
on the calendar. If the House had the support of leadership, it could move its bill by
August if it requires nothing more than the extension of existing taxes, which for the
most part expire on September 30th. If done timely, the extension should not be a
problem, but a situation in which they lapse could create problems, since enactment
would then count as a “new” tax.
The Senate needs to get four committees in harness and will likely need five or more
days of floor time to handle amendments and potential filibusters. If the committees
were ready and the funding was in place, this might be accomplished in July, possibly
setting up for a new bill before the current extension expires on September 30.
When September comes around, the focus of both House and Senate will be on the
13 appropriation bills needed to fund the government for FY 2012, with the likely
outcome another extension of SAFETEA-LU past September 30.
In that event, since this is not an election year, Congress will be in session well into
the fall and perhaps could complete a conference and enact a bill during this calendar
year. But with each passing day after Labor Day, the political focus will be more
and more on the 2012 election. With the President running for re-election, with a
Republican presidential primary in full swing, with the House Republican leadership
looking to sustain their majority and the Democratic Senate leaders looking to retain
their narrow margin, every action that is taken will be seen in the lens of politics.
It is the general observation within the Beltway that if a transportation bill is not
substantially complete going into this fall; the issue will be kicked over for whoever is
in the White House and Congress come 2013.
Will this make a difference? In his campaign, President Obama could point to his
unfulfilled aspirations for infrastructure as a reason to return him to the White
House. On the other side, Republican candidates for both the White House and the
Congress will likely take a dogmatic anti-tax position. At this point, 233 of the 240
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