today's facts & tomorrow's trends - SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles ...

Current situation: unsustainable moving
In its Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area White Paper, the European
Commission declared that the transportation system is not sustainable, even
though much has been achieved since the 2001 White Paper on Transport (EC
2001). The document says:
“Looking 40 years ahead, it is clear that transport cannot develop along the
same path. If we stick to the business as usual approach, the oil dependence
of transport might still be little below 90%, with renewable energy sources
only marginally exceeding the 10% target set for 2020. CO 2
emissions from
transport would remain one third higher than their 1990 level by 2050.
Congestion costs will increase by about 50% by 2050. The accessibility
gap between central and peripheral areas will widen. The social costs of
accidents and noise would continue to increase.” (EC 2011a)
Congestion in cities is already an enormous problem. In big cities the average
road speed for cars has levelled off at around 15 km/h due to congestion
(Radanne 2011). Figure 11 illustrates that, based on current trends, by 2050
transportation will be the source of 50% of total CO 2
emissions – the only sector
showing an increase in emissions. On current trends CO 2
emissions from
transportation will be 35% greater than their 1990 level with most of the rise
stemming from increased emissions during the 1990s.
Figure 11 CO 2
emissions projections for different sectors
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Mt of CO 2
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Transport
Energy industries
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Source: PRIMES and projections based on TRANSTOOLS for maritime (EC 2011b)
Trends towards more sustainable moving
The European Community is working to shift transport trends toward a more
sustainable pattern with a focus on the following priorities:
Efficiency
Several initiatives are already in place to improve the efficiency of transport
systems. Examples of initiatives that could influence current unsustainable
trends include the Single European Transport Area, multimodal transportation
for goods, vehicle labelling, application of intelligent transport systems and urban
mobility plans. A big challenge, however, is to break the transport system’s
dependence on oil.
Trends towards more
sustainable moving:
• Efficiency
• Equity and accessibility
• Safety and security
Challenges and opportunities for sustainable lifestyles 61