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MEETING TODA ODAY’S PROLIFERA ROLIFERATION CHALLENGES on the spread of fissile materials and their production, but we haven’t heard as much about delivery vehicles. I’m interested to see what your perspective is on the role of cruise missiles and ballistic missiles in future arms control regimes. MR. GALLUCCI: Okay, I’m going to take all three of these questions and then we’ll come back and have the panel respond. Q: Benjamin Hu, reporter with The Washington Times newspaper. Further to that gentleman’s question, an item appeared on our wires this morning saying that North Korea negotiated a deal with Nigeria for the transfer of ballistic missiles. So I wanted to know what U.S. policy is or should be on that transfer. Thank you. MR. GALLUCCI: They’re going to Nigeria, right? Q: That’s correct. Q: My name is Courtney Raj. I’m a student here. I intern at Carnegie for Joseph Cirincione. I write for the Daily Star in Beirut. And my question is for Bob Einhorn. You mentioned something that sounded like you were proposing a sort of Nunn-Lugar program for Iraq, and if you could maybe expand on that, if that’s what you were talking about. MR. GALLUCCI: Okay, spread of fissile material, North Korea, Nigeria, and Nunn-Lugar for Iraq, starting with fissile material. Want to take a shot at that? MR. PERKOVICH: I’m going to try to say nothing because I interpret his question to say let’s talk about missiles instead of fissile materials. MR. GALLUCCI: Right, you did. You did. MR. PERKOVICH: So I’m done. MR. GALLUCCI: I should note here that we have a presentation in the afternoon on ballistic missile proliferation. But does anybody want to say anything about that at this point? You’re not required to. MR. PERKOVICH: Well, actually I would just put a plug in for the Proliferation Security Initiative and the idea of building coalitions to interdict these kinds of transfers. MR. GALLUCCI: This is PSI. MR. PERKOVICH: PSI. I think it’s a great idea. MR. PONEMAN: This is an easy one on North Korea. MR. GALLUCCI: North Korea. Nigeria MR. PONEMAN: We should stop it. MR. GALLUCCI: We should stop it. (Laughter.) MR. PONEMAN: It ties into the PSI. MR. GALLUCCI: With the use of force? MR. PONEMAN: Yeah. MR. GALLUCCI: That was a yes? 38 38
MEETING TODA ODAY’S PROLIFERA ROLIFERATION CHALLENGES MR. PONEMAN: This is exactly the kind of thing we need to get a grip on. I always thought that the ballistic missile threat from North Korea was genuine. I didn’t think it was as urgent, and we believed it was not one that should prevent us from solving the nuclear problem first. That having been said, we were very clear at the time on the serious consequences of ballistic missile proliferation from North Korea. I think we should be equally serious with them about it now. It’s harder because we have this other very large agenda that’s in front of it, and Bob Einhorn could speak authoritatively to how close we came to a more effective and perhaps verifiable kind of missile proliferation resolution with North Korea. MR. GALLUCCI: Did we not have the Spanish interdict a shipment of North Korean SCUD-like missiles? MR. PONEMAN: Right. MR. GALLUCCI: And we let them go. So do you have a cut off here? If it’s extended range MRBM [mediumrange ballistic missiles] we stop them with force, otherwise we let them go, or… MR. PONEMAN: No. I would use the MTCR [Missile Technology Control Regime] parameters as a critical parameter. I would try to get the kind of international cooperation that the PSI is proposing. If I could get that kind of support and if I could interdict the ship, I would. MR. GALLUCCI: All right. And last and not least, we have the Nunn-Lugar question and whether that is what you had in mind for Iraq. That is actually how I heard you. MR. EINHORN: Actually it’s a program that’s underway. The State Department is putting in place a program in Iraq. It’s analogous to the International Science and Technology Center in Moscow and the one in Kiev. It’s designed to find out who these scientists are and put them to gainful employment in civilian projects and try to make sure they’re not peddling their expertise elsewhere. Let me, if I can come back on the missile question. There’s no way you’re going to get a universal agreement to ban all missiles above a certain range. That’s not going to happen. You’re also not going to be able to get a kind of missile NPT where some countries can keep long-range missiles and others have to give them up. That’s not going to happen either. You have to go at the missile problem in different ways. Part of it the U.S. does through dealing with each country in turn. We negotiated an arrangement with South Korea on the range of its missiles. We tried to negotiate an agreement with North Korea. We came pretty far, but we had other issues to work on. This arrangement in Libya is going to bring down their missile capability to below the so-called MTCR threshold, so ad hoc, country-by-country, is one element of it. Regionally is another. Various regions have considered constraints on missiles. You’re not going to have a universal agreement on missiles. MR. GALLUCCI: Let me thank the panel and thank you, audience. 39 39
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