Australian Maritime Issues 2005 - Royal Australian Navy

FUTURE SEA POWER
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some more contentious than others, it has long been a part of the understanding and
practice of maritime strategy, in so far as the sea has always represented a means of global
communication. What is significant today in terms of maritime strategy is the effects of
globalisation resulting from the speed and pervasiveness of modern communications,
and the work of international media outlets in particular. In the past, events occurring in
a distant part of the ocean could only be directly influenced by those present, whereas
today, local actions are very likely to be the subject of global scrutiny and influence. In
this sense, the maritime environment is far less isolated than it was and this can make
the implementation of maritime (and national) strategy more complex and contestable.
Numerous parties, potentially from different states or jurisdictions, may believe they have
an interest in a matter far distant from their actual location, and thus seek to exercise
some degree of influence over the matter. Such intense but fleeting attention can have
powerful but unpredictable flow-on effects.
A more direct maritime dimension of globalisation is the international nature of sea
transport, particularly containerised shipping. It is conceivable that at one moment in
time a single ship may have a Taiwanese operator, financed by a Japanese bank with
recourse to a South Korean shipbuilder, registered in Liberia, crewed by Russian officers
and Chinese sailors, carrying cargo from, and to, a dozen different countries, through
Malaysian territorial waters. Closer examination would be likely to uncover even further
levels of national interest and control, not to mention the innumerable navigational,
environmental and security regulations arising from international bodies and regimes
operating under UN auspices. The complexity of resolving any serious dispute or
problem involving such a ship is considerable, and has led to the development of a large
body of international maritime law, a great deal of which is overseen by the International
Maritime Organisation (IMO). 7
The delimitation of maritime boundaries and claims to scarce resources are obvious
parallels between the way people now conceive of both land and sea; parallels which
did not exist one hundred years ago. The LOSC is one example of the way in which
nations are regulating parts of the maritime environment. This process will lead to a
more structured maritime environment, at least as far as human activity is concerned.
Activity that was previously ambiguous in nature, if it was even observed, is now seen
and judged by nations. Most obviously in the protection of scarce resources such as fish
stocks, nations show a high regard for their sovereignty and rights, and in some cases are
willing to exert influence to demonstrate and maintain them. In the future nations will
probably guard their maritime rights even more jealously, and hopefully this will apply
equally to their responsibilities as well.
The Maritime Environment in 2050/2100
Given the trends in the maritime environment toward a more pervasive and permanent
human presence, what will characterise that environment in 50 to 100 years? While
‘nothing dates faster than a prediction of the future’ 8 this section sets out some possible
characteristics of the future maritime environment, though the list is neither exhaustive
nor immutable.