BMO Financial Group - Outlook 2005(1.1Mb pdf File) - Boardwalk REIT

15
Canada’s Regional Outlook
After squeaking by 2003 in the face of much
adversity, most provinces have recovered
nicely in 2004, and growth should strengthen
further in 2005.
Considering the number and magnitude of
shocks that hit the Canadian economy in 2003
– severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS),
bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), the
stronger Canadian dollar, massive forest fires
in the west, a hurricane in the Maritimes, a
power blackout in Ontario – it is remarkable
that overall growth came in as high as it did, at
2.0%. The confluence of these hits caused
most provinces to record slower growth in 2003
than in 2002.
The weakest growth in 2003 was in Nova
Scotia, which saw natural gas production and
manufacturing activity decline. Ontario was
second weakest as the economic damage from
SARS was concentrated there and the strong
Canadian dollar took its toll on the
manufacturing base. The fastest growth in
2003 came in Newfoundland and Labrador,
which grew 6.5% thanks to a steep increase in
oil production as the Terra Nova oil field came
on stream. Saskatchewan posted the second
fastest provincial growth, with its two-year
drought coming to an end.
With most situations returning to normal in
2004, provincial economic performances have
The Canadian Regional Forecast
Real GDP
Employment
% change % change
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nfld. & Labrador 6.5 1.7 1.2 5.0 1.5 1.8 0.3 1.0 16.8 16.3 16.5 16.2
PEI 1.9 1.5 2.0 3.0 2.6 0.3 0.8 1.0 11.0 11.6 11.6 11.5
Nova Scotia 0.9 2.1 3.0 2.8 1.7 2.4 1.0 0.7 9.3 8.9 8.8 8.8
New Brunswick 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.8 -0.2 2.4 1.2 0.5 10.6 10.2 10.0 9.9
Québec 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.3 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 9.2 8.3 8.1 8.0
Ontario 1.3 2.6 3.5 3.7 2.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5
Manitoba 1.4 3.0 3.0 2.8 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1
Saskatchewan 4.5 3.0 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2
Alberta 2.2 4.0 4.0 3.7 2.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.7
British Columbia 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.2 8.1 7.7 7.5 7.4
Canada 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.5 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.0
Housing Starts
000 units
Retail Sales
% change
Unemployment Rate
%
Consumer Prices
% change
2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nfld. & Labrador 2.5 2.9 2.3 2.0 5.8 -1.3 1.1 4.8 2.9 1.9 1.4 1.2
PEI 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 -1.6 0.3 4.6 3.5 2.0 1.2 1.1
Nova Scotia 6.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 1.5 2.4 4.0 4.2 3.4 1.8 1.3 1.2
New Brunswick 4.4 3.5 3.2 3.0 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.2 3.4 1.4 1.1 1.1
Québec 50.7 55.5 42.5 33.0 5.1 4.3 5.2 5.0 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.3
Ontario 85.3 80.4 70.7 64.9 3.4 2.2 4.7 5.2 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.4
Manitoba 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.6 7.9 5.4 4.9 1.8 2.0 1.4 1.3
Saskatchewan 3.3 3.4 3.0 2.8 5.0 4.4 4.8 5.0 2.3 2.1 1.3 1.1
Alberta 36.5 33.7 31.0 27.0 4.5 11.1 7.2 6.8 4.4 1.5 1.8 1.9
British Columbia 26.1 32.5 28.3 24.0 2.6 6.9 5.9 5.0 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6
Canada 220 222 190 165 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.3 2.8 1.8 1.4 1.4