Adaptation to climate change in the countries of - Mekong River ...

3. Existing knowledge of national climate change
3.1 Cambodia
Cambodia’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (MOE, 2002) includes the first
attempt to assess the country’s future climate using two General Circulation Models (GCM);
the CCSR and CSIRO models. The global warming scenarios used in the analysis were the
SRESA2 and SRESB1 scenarios. The GCM models used in this analysis were developed for
use in Japan and Australia, which are very different geographical regions. At the time of the
assessment, there was an absence of more suitable models. Projections were made for changes
in the average temperatures and rainfall. However, the deviation of the GCM models from the
observed rainfall data was very significant (MOE, 2002). The GCM models predicted:
• Mean annual temperatures could increase between 0.3 and 0.6°C by 2025 and between
1.6 and 2.0°C by 2100 (Figure 3.1).
Mean annual temperature CCSR (2036-2065) Mean annual temperature CCSR (2086-2115)
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1.00
0.70
0.80
1.00
0.90
1.00
Mean annual temperature CSIRO (2036-2065) Mean annual temperature CSIRO (2086-2115)
0.73
0.75
0.77
0.77
1.00
Figure 3.1 Mean annual temperature change (°C) using CCSR and CSIRO GCMs.
Source: MOE, 2002.
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
2.50
1.92
1.80
Mean annual temperature change (ºC)
1.90
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.50
1.92
2.20
1.98
2.00
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