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Strong Growth for FTTH Worldwide sales of PON equipment are still growing briskly, and a new study forecasts a tripling of FTTx subscribers by 2013. Forecast: 145 Million FTTx Subscriptions by 2013 The number of global FTTx subscriptions will almost triple between now and the end of 2013, according to research firm Informa Telecoms & Media (www.informatm.com), but operators face some key challenges. According to Informa Telecoms & Media’s “FTTx: A Global Analysis,” there were 49 million fiber-to-the-home, fiber-to-the-building and VDSL subscriptions in 2008. However, subscriptions are clustered in only a few countries and fiber is still not a reality for consumers in most countries. The majority of FTTx subscriptions are in Asia, where pioneering fiber nations Japan and Korea have 13.4 million and 7.0 million FTTx subscriptions respectively. Chinese operators have been aggressively upgrading their legacy networks to fiber, and there are now 16.6 million FTTx subscriptions in that country. By 2013, Informa predicts there will be 145 million subscriptions – just under one in five of all global broadband subscriptions. Much of this growth will be fueled by Europe and North America. Except for a few alternative operators, FTTx growth in Western Europe has • Solid one piece construction all brass connector • Maximum pull out strength Now Available Suttle, the leader in high-quality voice and data connectivity products now brings you wow performance and quality with its new TWiN Lock connectors. The patented, revolutionary new TWiN Lock F-connector provides a technically superior twin 360° compression connection all while using less material, allowing it to be extremely cost effective. • Complete radiation blockage • Prevents water migration without the need for grease or boots. To learn more, please contact Suttle at 1-800-852-8662 or visit us at www.suttleonline.com 20 | BROADBAND PROPERTIES | www.broadbandproperties.com | April 2009
een sluggish to date. But greater regulatory certainty and wider acceptance of the benefits of fiber will generate 21.6 million FTTx subscriptions by 2013, or total household penetration of 10.5 percent. While the global financial crisis will cause some operators to slow spending down in the short term, Informa does not expect this to significantly alter uptake through to 2013. Central and Eastern Europe, not currently thought of as an advanced broadband region, will have an FTTx penetration rate comparable to Western Europe by 2013, with 10.6 million subscriptions. Operators in Central and Eastern Europe are taking advantage of a high proportion of multi-dwelling units (MDUs) and a lax regulatory regime to quickly roll out FTTB in the region. North America, too, will see significant growth. As a result of aggressive rollouts from both AT&T and Verizon, there will be 24 million FTTx subscriptions in North America in 2013, making up 22 percent of the total market. On the other hand, some of today’s lead “A whole host of new services were developed once broadband became more prevalent, and the same thing will happen with FTTx.” fiber markets will see some slowdown in growth as they approach saturation. FTTH and FTTB in Japan, for example, will have a compound annual growth rate of only 7.9 percent. With a few exceptions, most operators with advanced FTTx rollout plans have not made money from their new networks. Some will try and charge more for FTTx but others, including alternative operators Fastweb of Italy, France’s Free and Sweden’s Bredbandsbolaget are charging the same or even less for their premium services as their legacy services. There are also few value-added services or applications that rely on the extra bandwidth of FTTx. But this should not stop operators from rolling out. “Ultimately, the revenue will come,” says Cottle. “The only service that truly took advantage of the extra bandwidth that DSL provided over dial-up was peer-topeer downloading. A whole host of new services were developed once broadband became more prevalent, and the same thing will happen with FTTx.” The challenge for operators, Informa says, is to avoid the mistake they made with the first generation of broadband by letting others develop services while they provided only connectivity. They must play to their strengths as operators to make sure that, where they are in the position to do so, they are the ones providing services for their subscribers. They should also look to take advantage of some FTTx’s other benefits, such as the potential to increase their wholesale shares and the associated revenue benefits this will bring. BBP 4Q08 PON Revenue Up 38% Year Over Year Quarterly manufacturer revenue for passive optical network equipment (BPON, EPON, GPON, and WDM-PON) was $564 million in 4Q08, up 38 percent from 4Q07 but about equal to 3Q08, according to market research firm Infonetics (www.infonetics.com). Flat spending in the fourth quarter reflects a slight pause in GPON network buildouts outside the US but continued growth of EPON-based FTTH and FTTB deployments in Japan, South Korea, and China. PON manufacturer revenue is forecast to grow at a rapid compound annual growth rate of 23 percent between 2008 and 2013, as the shift from copper- to fiber-based broadband access drives growth in this market around the world. The PON and Ethernet FTTH equipment market continues to be one of the most dynamic in the world, with operators around the globe prioritizing deep fiber deployments to stem the loss of copperbased access lines, reduce opex, and increase revenue via premium broadband, IPTV, online gaming, and femtocells. Infonetics expects the current economic climate to have a minimal impact on FTTH equipment spending because it remains a top strategic priority for those operators that have committed to it. BBP April 2009 | www.broadbandproperties.com | BROADBAND PROPERTIES | 21
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Page 4 and 5: EDITORIAL DIRECTOR Scott DeGarmo PU
Page 6: table of contents DEPARTMENTS Presi
Page 9 and 10: Win with Hitachi: the right equipme
Page 11 and 12: Draka BendBright-XS ® Value Innova
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Page 15 and 16: RBOC UPDATE New Washington Apartmen
Page 17 and 18: Deployer Spotlight International de
Page 19 and 20: approach - we need to be service dr
Page 24 and 25: Municipal FTTH Deployment Snapshot
Page 26 and 27: Artist Rendering Trump Plaza Jersey
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Page 30 and 31: unaware of our method of fiber depl
Page 32 and 33: international New Applications on D
Page 34 and 35: Fiber Here to the Single Family | M
Page 36 and 37: North American Deployments As the n
Page 38 and 39: Why FTTH, Why Now? Fiber to the hom
Page 40 and 41: Fiber and Bandwidth Q: What is band
Page 42 and 43: FTTH Users’ Stories The Power Beh
Page 44 and 45: The Inevitability of Bandwidth Grow
Page 46 and 47: Applications for FTTH Providers: Be
Page 48 and 49: than the free services provide. Or,
Page 50 and 51: The Light Fantastic: Three Reasons
Page 52 and 53: Builders, Real Estate Developers an
Page 54 and 55: Questions Real Estate Developers As
Page 56 and 57: Focus on Municipal Priorities Munic
Page 58 and 59: Understanding the Technology in Gre
Page 60 and 61: Zeros and Ones If all pulses look t
Page 62 and 63: FTTH Versus Other Types of Fiber Ne
Page 64 and 65: FTTH and FTTB Network Architectures
Page 66: The FTTH Council will certify any h
Page 69 and 70: HOT PRODUCTS Industry Segments Area
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HOT PRODUCTS Broadband Integration
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HOT PRODUCTS Display Systems Intern
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HOT PRODUCTS EZ-Bend Optical Cables
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HOT PRODUCTS splitters and passive
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SMS: Solutions Made Simple! Questio
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TECHNOLOGY passive network design -
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TECHNOLOGY Figure 3: Segmented spli
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT it started out
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Planned Commun
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ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Putting the co
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INTERNATIONAL coverage connections
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Clearfield Expands Product Line Fro
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Connected Communities Necessity has
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