ConflictBarometer_2012

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The Middle East and Maghreb Conflicts in the Middle East and Maghreb in 2012 Conflict parties 2 Conflict items Start Change 3 Intensity 4 Jordan (opposition groups) Kuwait (Bedouns) Kuwait (opposition movement) Lebanon (Fatah al-Islam)* Lebanon (March 14 Alliance – March 8 Alliance) opposition groups vs. government Bedouns vs. government opposition movement vs. government Fatah al-Islam vs. government March 14 Alliance vs. March 8 Alliance system / ideology other system/ideology, national power system / ideology system / ideology, national power 2011 1960 2012 2006 1975 NEW 3 3 3 1 3 Libya (Federalists / Cyrenaica) government vs. Congress of the People of Cyrenaica and other federalists autonomy, system/ideology 2012 NEW 3 Libya (inter-factional violence) Libya (opposition) Libya (Salafist groups)* Mauritania (AQIM)* Morocco (AQIM)* Morocco (opposition)* Warffallah tribe vs. Zwai vs. Tibu tribe vs. Berber ethnic groups vs. Ethnic Arab settlements vs. El-Mashasha tribe vs. al-Fawatra tribe et al. opposition vs. government Salafist groups vs. government AQIM vs. government AQIM vs. government 20 February Movement vs. government subnational predominance, resources, other system / ideology, national power system/ideology system / ideology, national power system / ideology, national power system/ideology, national power 2012 2011 2011 2007 2003 2011 NEW 6 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 Morocco (POLISARIO / Western Sahara) POLISARIO, indigenous Sahrawis vs. government secession 1975 6 2 Morocco – Spain (Ceuta and Melilla)* Morocco – Spain (Parsley Island)* Oman (opposition movement)* Morocco vs. Spain Morocco vs. Spain opposition movement vs. government territory territory system / ideology 1956 2002 2011 4 1 1 1 Saudi Arabia (al-Houthi rebels)* Saudi Arabia (AQAP)* Saudi Arabia (opposition movement)* al-Houthi rebels vs. government AQAP vs. government opposition movement vs. government subnational predominance system / ideology, national power system / ideology 2009 1990 1990 5 3 2 3 3 Saudi Arabia (Shiites) Syria (Kurdish groups) Syria (NC - KSC)* Syria (opposition groups) Syria – Israel Shiites vs. government KDPS, PYD vs. government NC vs. KSC opposition groups vs. government Syria vs. Israel system / ideology, national power autonomy, subnational predominance subnational predominance, other system / ideology, national power territory, international power, resources 1979 1962 2012 2011 1948 5 NEW 3 3 3 5 3 Syria Turkey Syria – USA* Syria vs. Turkey Syria vs. USA territory, international power system / ideology, international power 1946 2003 3 3 2 Tunisia (AQIM)* Tunisia (opposition groups) AQIM vs. government opposition groups vs. government system / ideology, national power system / ideology, national power 2011 2010 6 3 3 Turkey (PKK/ Kurdish areas) Turkey – Iraq* Yemen (al-Houthi rebels – Sunni tribal forces) Name of conflict 1 102 PKK vs. government Turkey vs. Iraq al-Houthi rebels vs. Sunni tribal forces autonomy international power subnational predominance 1974 1979 2011 5 5 2 3 Yemen (al-Houthi rebels)* al-Houthi rebels vs. government system / ideology, subnational predominance 2004 3 Yemen (AQAP– al-Houthi rebels)* Yemen (AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia) AQAP vs. al-Houthi rebels AQAP, Ansar al-Sharia vs. government system / ideology system / ideology, national power 2010 1992 3 5 Yemen (opposition groups) Yemen (SMM / South Yemen)* opposition groups vs. government SMM vs. government system / ideology, national power secession 2011 2009 4 3 3 1 Conflicts marked with * are without description 2 Mentioned are only those conflict parties relevant for the period under review 3 Change in intensity compared to the previous year: 3 or 5 escalation by one or more than one level of intensity; 4 or 6 deescalation by one or more than one level of intensity; no change 4 Levels of intensity: 5 = war; 4 = limited war; 3 = violent crisis; 2 = non-violent crisis; 1 = dispute
the middle east and maghreb Afghanistan (Kuchi nomads – Hazara) Intensity: Conflict parties: Conflict items: 3 Change: Start: 2007 Kuchi nomads vs. Hazara subnational predominance, resources The conflict between Kuchi nomads and Shiite Hazara over resources and subnational predominance in eastern Afghanistan continued. Kuchi nomads and Hazara disputed over grazing land. The government and the UN intervened diplomatically. On May 26, Kuchi nomads allegedly attacked the Hazara-populated Behsud District, Nangarhar Province, torching schools and houses. On June 3, up to 2,000 Kuchi nomads armed with rocket launchers and machine guns launched an attack on the mainly Hazara-inhabited Kajab Valley, Wardak Province. A gun battle raged between the Kuchi nomads and Hazara with Afghan soldiers intervening in order to end the fighting. Casualty numbers ranged from three to eleven. A local police chief stated that a mosque, four shops, and nineteen houses were destroyed during the clashes. Most of the village’s Hazara population fled. In order to de-escalate the conflict, President Hamid Karzai and the UN held talks with representatives of both conflict parties. In May, Karzai met Hazara representatives to discuss their conflict with Kuchi nomads. In mid-June, UN Deputy Special Envoy Nicholas Haysom met the governor of Wardak, government officials, and Hazara and Kuchi representatives to hold peace talks in the city of Maidan Shar, Wardak. mku Afghanistan (Taliban et al.) Intensity: 5 Change: Start: Conflict parties: Conflict items: 1994 Taliban, Haqqani network, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, HIG, militant groups vs. government system / ideology, national power The war over national power and the orientation of the political system between the Taliban, the Haqqani network, the Hezb-e Islami, and various other militant groups, on the one hand, and the government, supported by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom, on the other hand, continued. At the beginning of the year, the Taliban ruled out negotiations with the government of President Hamid Karzai, but agreed to meet US delegates for peace talks in Doha, Qatar. In March, these negotiations between the US and Taliban failed. The UN imposed sanctions on the Haqqani network and put it on a blacklist in November. A spokesman of Karzai approved that move and stated that the Haqqani network did not meet the preconditions required to engage in negotiations. By the end of December, militant groups, including Taliban and Hezb-e-Islami, and members of the Higher Peace Council met in Paris to hold peace talks. According to UN figures, from January to October, more than 2,300 civilians were killed, mostly by militants. For example, on June 6, suicide bombers killed some twenty people in Kandahar province. On August 14, similar attacks in the provinces of Nimroz and Kunduz left 48 people dead and some 130 wounded. A suicide bomber killed 41 people and injured a further 56 in front of a mosque in the city of Maimana, Faryab Province, on October 26. In the capital of Wardak Province, a Taliban suicide attack killed two and injured some 90 on November 23. Militants launched two major attacks in Kabul. In their first major attack upon Kabul, Taliban, allegedly backed by the Haqqani network, assaulted the parliament building, ISAF headquarters, and the German and British embassies on April 15. The militants were armed with rifles, suicide vests, and rocket propelled grenades (RPG). Subsequently, an eighteenhour fight erupted between militants and security personnel supported by NATO helicopters. Simultaneously, Taliban launched assaults in Logar, Paktia, and Nangarhar provinces. According to Karzai, 36 militants, eleven members of security forces, and four civilians were killed in these interrelated attacks, constituting the beginning of the Taliban’s spring offensive. On June 21, Taliban fighters armed with machine guns and RPGs attacked a hotel in Kabul, taking dozens of hostages. Security forces and ISAF troops engaged the militants in a twelve-hour firefight in which at least 22 people died. The number of fatalities among foreign troops throughout the year decreased to slightly over 400. Nevertheless, ISAF remained a focus of militant attacks, which also caused significant losses among government forces and civilians. In an attack on an ISAF convoy in Khost City on June 20, a suicide bomber killed 25 people, including three ISAF troops, and injured 30. On September 14, some fifteen militants armed with RPGs, explosives, and automatic rifles attacked the NATO-led Camp Bastion in Helmand Province, killing two US marines and destroying six jet fighters. In a further suicide attack on a NATO convoy in Khost province on October 1, fifteen people, among them three ISAF soldiers, were killed and another 53 wounded. In contrast to the large-scale operations prior to 2011, NATO and government forces continued to concentrate on less timeand personnel-intensive operations, making more use of precision airstrikes. For instance, security forces targeted 300 Taliban in Farah province in mid-May, leaving twenty militants and six troops dead. On June 2, government and ISAF troops conducted an operation in Helmand province, killing 26 Taliban. Some ten days later, Taliban fighters and security forces clashed in Helmand’s Sangin District. NATO forces intervened with an airstrike. In the course of the incident, twenty Taliban and two members of security forces died. Beginning on September 28, dozens of police and security forces backed by ISAF soldiers conducted a six-dayoperation in Wardak Province, thereby killing 30 militants, including five Taliban commanders. On October 15, an ISAF airstrike in Ghazni Province killed seventeen militants, among them allegedly fifteen Pakistani nationals. In Logar Province, security forces launched an operation involving more than 1,000 troops in late December, killing numerous militants and arresting dozens more. Provinces bordering on Pakistan, especially Kunar and Nurestan, faced major militant attacks, cross-border assaults, and frequent ISAF airstrikes [1 Pakistan (Islamist militant groups)]. Hundreds of militants assaulted two villages in Kamdish District, Nurestan, on June 28, resulting in a gun battle between 103
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2012 disputes non-violent crises vi
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Global Conflict Panorama
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Global Conflict Panorama political
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Global Conflict Panorama Out of 28
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Measures of Conflict Resolution
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Measures of Conflict Resolution Aut
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Measures of Conflict Resolution Cur
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EUROPE : No violent conflict : viol
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EUROPE Conflicts in europe in 2012
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EUROPE Armenia (opposition) Intensi
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EUROPE Bosnia and Herzegovina milit
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EUROPE mainly represented by the ne
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EUROPE Vedeno district, further ope
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EUROPE ment and the central governm
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA : No violent con
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 2011. Altogether
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Conflicts in sub
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola Intensity
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA [1 CAR (rebel gr
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DR Congo Intensi
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA national confere
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA over the town, h
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA 119. On February
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA of the Federal G
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Sudan (Darfur) I
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SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Blue Nile)]. Sou
Page 57 and 58: The Americas
Page 59 and 60: THE AMERICAS In the Americas, the t
Page 61 and 62: THE AMERICAS Conflicts in the Ameri
Page 63 and 64: THE AMERICAS Argentina - United Kin
Page 65 and 66: THE AMERICAS olent protests for edu
Page 67 and 68: THE AMERICAS and the Salvadorian pr
Page 69 and 70: THE AMERICAS Jamaica Intensity: Con
Page 71 and 72: THE AMERICAS volutionary Party (PRI
Page 73 and 74: THE AMERICAS Paraguay Intensity: Co
Page 75 and 76: Asia and Oceania
Page 77 and 78: Asia and oceania With a total of 12
Page 79 and 80: Asia and oceania Conflicts in Asia
Page 81 and 82: Asia and oceania Conflicts in Asia
Page 83 and 84: Asia and oceania Bangladesh Intensi
Page 85 and 86: Asia and oceania gion, and the gove
Page 87 and 88: Asia and oceania police station, Ba
Page 89 and 90: Asia and oceania Indonesia Intensit
Page 91 and 92: Asia and oceania and Fair Elections
Page 93 and 94: Asia and oceania Nepal Intensity: C
Page 95 and 96: Asia and oceania suicide car bomb,
Page 97 and 98: Asia and oceania to suspend judges
Page 99 and 100: Asia and oceania October 15 in Mani
Page 101 and 102: The Middle East and Maghreb
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Page 119 and 120: the middle east and maghreb SyriA -
Page 121: the middle east and maghreb Yemen (
Page 124 and 125: Methodology Conflict Actors Politic
Page 126: Methodology Database CONIS The data
Page 129 and 130: : No violent conflict : violent cri
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ConflictBarometer_2012

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