ConflictBarometer_2012

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
to profit from the situation’s instabilities by taking the cities of
Kidal, Gao, and Timbuktu in order to control the area of Azawad
[1 Mali (coup-plotters)]. By April 1, MNLA and Ansar al-Din had
seized the three cities without encountering resistance. After a
ceasefire announcement, MNLA declared the independence of
Azawad on April 6. The AU, EU, and US rejected this declaration
of independence. On April 10, around 2,000 people protested
in Bamako for the liberation of the rebel-held north. Two days
later, the transitional president Dioncounda Traoré threatened
a total war against Tuareg rebels. On April 20, some 200 residents
protested against the occupation of Timbuktu by rebels.
On May 27, MNLA and Ansar al-Din resumed cooperation and
declared Azawad an Islamic state. Two days later, the two rebel
groups separated again, resulting from a disagreement the
over strictness of Sharia to be imposed [1 Mali (Islamist groups
vs. MNLA)]. On June 9, representatives of MNLA met ECOWAS
mediator Blaise Compaoré, president of Burkina Faso. As of
July, more than 350,000 people had fled the conflict areas,
among them 155,000 IDPs. On October 12, the UN Security
Council adopted a resolution paving the way for a military intervention
to retake the north. At the end of October, envoys
of the AU, ECOWAS, EU, as well as the UN Special Envoy for the
Sahel, Romano Prodi, met in Bamako to elaborate upon an operation
plan for a military intervention. On November 6, Compaoré
met with a delegation of Ansar al-Din, urging the group
to dissociate from al-Qaeda. At a summit on November 11 in
Nigeria, ECOWAS agreed to deploy 3,300 soldiers. The plan to
send troops to Mali covers a six-month period, including operations
in the north. On November 19, the EU Foreign Affairs
Council decided to send military experts to train the army.
On December 4, an official delegation of the government met
representatives of MNLA and Ansar al-Din for negotiations in
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. On December 20, the UN Security
Council authorized the deployment of an African-led International
Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA). The next day, MNLA and
Ansar al-Din committed to suspending hostilities and holding
peace talks with the government.
kse
Niger
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
(AQIM, MUJAO)
3 Change:
Start:
2009
AQIM, MUJAO vs. government
system/ideology, subnational predominance
The ideology and subnational predominance conflict between
the al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and
the government remained violent. On March 22, authorities in
Niger arrested National Assembly adviser and former Tuareg
leader Aghali Alambo. He was accused of being involved in the
smuggling of arms from Libya for AQIM in Niger in June 2011.
On August 1, the EU sent an advisory team of 50 international
officers to the capital, Niamey, to train local security forces
to combat AQIM in Niger and Mali [1 Mali (Islamist groups)].
It was part of the European Union's Capacity Building Mission,
which was scheduled to last two years. In August, security
forces arrested several armed militants suspected to be members
of AQIM. On October 14, the Islamist group Movement
for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is linked
to AQIM and operates extensively in northern Mali, abducted
six aid workers from the town of Dakoro, Maradi. One of the
hostages was wounded by a bullet during the kidnapping and
later died of his injuries. On November 5, the five remaining
aid workers were freed.
On October 18, the defense ministers of Niger and Nigeria
signed security and defense agreements aimed exchanging
information in the fight against trans-border crime, especially
in respect to the activities of AQIM and the Boko Haram from
Nigeria [1 Nigeria (Boko Haram)].
jas
Nigeria
(Boko Haram)
Intensity: 5 Change:
Start:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
Boko Haram vs. government
system / ideology
2003
The system and ideology conflict between the Islamist group
Boko Haram and the government continued on the level of war.
The group was radically opposed to secular ideals and aimed
at the implementation of Sharia law throughout Nigeria. Over
the course of the year, Boko Haram attacks killed at least 700
people and displaced thousands. Violence also spread to the
previously unaffected Ebo, Kogi, and Rivers States. President
Goodluck Jonathan admitted at the beginning of January that
Boko Haram members presumably held offices in government,
parliament, and courts, and had infiltrated security forces and
intelligence organizations. According to General Carter Ham,
commander of the US Africa Command, the group presumably
collaborated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
and other Islamist groups in West Africa regarding training,
provision of weapons, and financial assistance [1 Mali (Islamist
groups), Algeria (AQIM, MUJAO)]. In January, the UN expressed
concerns that the Libyan civil war gave Islamists in the
Sahel Region including Boko Haram access to heavy weapons
[1 Libya (opposition)]. In October, the government signed an
agreement with Niger on joint border patrols, aiming at the
reduction of security risks caused by Boko Haram and AQIM
[1 Niger (AQIM)].
On January 2, Boko Haram issued an ultimatum, threatening
all Christians who would not leave the mainly Musliminhabited
northeastern areas within three days with death.
After the expiration of the period, Boko Haram launched attacks
on Christians, causing at least 250 fatalities and displacing
thousands over the course of the month. In the most fatal
attacks on January 20 and 21, coordinated bomb attacks, followed
by gunfire, targeted four police stations in Kano State,
leaving more than 190 people dead. In reaction, Jonathan
dismissed the chief of police in order to reorganize the police
forces and increase their effectiveness. The government announced
its intentions to intensify efforts to capture the militants,
subsequently killing up to 49 in clashes and raids as
well as arresting approx. 200 suspected members. However,
attacks continued in February, killing some 70 people. On February
15, Boko Haram attacked Kogi Prison, Kogi State, freeing
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