ConflictBarometer_2012

Global Conflict Panorama
political system erupted, as well as one non-violent opposition
conflict in Paraguay [1 Nicaragua (militant groups), Paraguay
(impeachment)].
In Europe, in demonstrations by the Romanian opposition,
hundreds were injured, thus establishing a new violent crisis
[1 Romania (opposition movement)].
Another violent crisis over resources erupted in Myanmar,
adding to the aforementioned limited war [1 Myanmar (farmers
et al. / Sagaing Region)].
In addition to the inter-factional violence in Libya, the
Middle East and Maghreb accounted for three new conflicts
with an autonomy conflict in Libya, an opposition conflict in
Kuwait and a conflict between Kurds and the anti-Assad coalition
in Syria [1 Libya (Federalists / Cyrenaica), Kuwait (opposition
movement), Syria (NC - KSC)].
Africa saw the eruption of two new conflicts in Mali. The
first was Mali (coup plotters), which was then followed by the
escalation of several conflicts and the likewise eruption of the
other new conflict Mali (Islamist groups - MNLA).
In order to better analyze a long-term trend, the five intensity
levels were categorized into three groups: The two
non-violent levels were summarized as low intensity conflicts,
while limited wars and wars as conflicts of high intensity. Violent
crises were labeled medium intensity conflicts.
As the graph below shows, the number of conflicts observed
rose more or less continuously from 83 in 1945 to 396
in 2012. However, this increase must be partly attributed to
improved availability of information on current conflicts in
recent decades. With regard to high intensity conflicts, their
number increased almost constantly until 1992, when an alltime
high was reached with 51 high intensity conflicts shortly
after the decline of the Soviet Union and the breakup of
Yugoslavia. Afterwards, its number dropped sharply, but then
rose again until it reached 45 in 2003. In the following eight
years, the number of highly-violent conflicts ranged between
31 and 41. While 2011 saw the highest number of wars, 2012
accounted for the highest number of highly violent conflicts
since 2003 with a total of 43.
Analysis intrastate – interstate
The amount of intrastate conflicts increased from 303 to 314,
while the number of interstate conflicts decreased by two
from 84 to 82. While five intrastate conflicts had ended in
2011, sixteen new domestic conflicts erupted in 2012, thereby
marking an increase by eleven. Thus, as in previous years,
about 80 percent of all conflicts were domestic.
The escalation between Sudan and South Sudan resulted
in the first interstate war since the confrontation between
Russia and Georgia in 2008. In the aftermath of the 2011
secession of South Sudan, tensions over contested border
areas and the oil-rich Higlig region led to heavy bombing
campaigns and several ten thousands displaced, reaching a
peak in April with intense fighting over Higlig [1 Sudan – South
Sudan]. The conflict between the Democratic Republic of
the Congo and Rwanda over influence in the Kivu region constituted
the second violent interstate confrontation in Sub-
Saharan Africa.
Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in
2012 by Intensity Level
intrastate :
interstate :
Seven other interstate conflicts were conducted with the use
of violence, with Syria accounting for violent conflicts with
neighboring Turkey and Israel. Several cross-border incidents
took place between the Syrian army and Israeli and Turkish
troops in the course of intensified fighting in the ongoing
Syrian opposition conflict [1 Syria – Israel, Syria – Turkey]
Pakistan also accounted for two violent interstate conflicts
[1 Afghanistan – Pakistan, Pakistan – India]. In the Americas,
violence occurred in two border conflicts [1 USA – Mexico
(border security), Guatemala – Belize (territory)]. The crisis
over the Nagorno-Karabakh region between Armenia and
Azerbaijan remained the sole violent interstate conflict in Europe.
In spite of the cease-fire agreement, several clashes and
sniper attacks killed at least eight people in the course of the
year. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, extending
to a limited war in 2011, decreased to a non-violent crisis
[1 Thailand – Cambodia (border)].
Intra- and Interstate Conflicts of high Intensity
1945 to 2012
intrastate :
interstate :
157
50
40
30
46
59
56
20
27
8
0
25
1
17
dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2010
2005
3