ConflictBarometer_2012

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
At a total 90 conflicts, the number of conflicts in Sub-Saharan
Africa decreased by two compared to 2011. The number of
highly violent conflicts increased by five to eighteen. This
was the highest number of highly violent conflicts observed
in Sub-Saharan Africa since the beginning of the observation
period in 1945. All wars and limited wars were recorded
in Western, Eastern and Central Africa, with Southern Africa
being only sporadically affected. Altogether, nine wars were
observed: Four conflicts continued as a war [1 Somalia (Islamist
groups), Sudan (Darfur), Sudan (inter-ethnic violence),
Nigeria (Boko Haram)], whereas five conflicts escalated to
the intensity level of a war. The conflict between the Islamist
group al-Shabaab and the Somali government, supported by
the Ahlu Sunna wa-Jama’a, was fought as a war for the seventh
year running. The war between various ethnic groups
in South Sudan and the war in the Sudanese region of Darfur
continued, the latter since its eruption in 2003. In addition,
the conflict between the Islamist group Boko Haram, mainly
active in northern Nigeria, and the government remained on
the intensity level of a war. In the Democratic Republic of the
Congo (DRC), the conflict between former CNDP rebels and
the government escalated by three levels. The rebels started
defecting from the army in Nord Kivu province in March,
forming the new group M23 in May. The rebellion reached
the level of a war in May, when government forces and the
rebels clashed near Virunga National Park. The conflict between
the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad
aiming at the secession of the regions Timbuktu, Gao, and
Kidal in northern Mali, and the Islamist group Ansar al-Din,
on the one hand, and the government, on the other, turned
highly violent at the beginning of 2012. Although having deescalated
to a violent crisis in 2011, the conflict over arable
land between the predominantly Christian farmers of Berom
and Tiv tribes on the one hand, and the mainly Muslim Fulani
nomads on the other, escalated to a war for the first time.
The former limited war over territory and resources between
Sudan and South Sudan escalated to a war, constituting the
only interstate war worldwide. Additionally, the conflict between
the SPLM/A-North, which formed the Sudanese Revolutionary
Front with two other armed groups, and the Sudanese
Conflict Intensities in sub-Saharan Africa
in 2012 compared to 2011
government over the status of the provinces of Blue Nile and
South Kordofan intensified to the level of a war.
Three of the wars observed in 2011 de-escalated to violent
crises. A peace treaty was reached between several militias
and the government of South Sudan in February 2012,
leading to a significant decrease in rebel activity throughout
the year. After Laurent Gbagbo had surrendered in April 2011
and Alassane Ouatarra became president of Côte d’Ivoire, the
conflict between supporters of presidential candidates Ouattara
and Gbagbo de-escalated to a violent crisis in the second
half of 2011 and had become on this level in 2012. Similarly,
the conflict between Northerners and Southerners in Nigeria,
which had escalated in the course of the presidential
elections in 2011, eased by two levels. The war between the
SPLM/A and the government in Khartoum, observed in 2011,
ended the same year, following South Sudan’s independence.
Apart from the nine wars, nine limited wars were observed
in 2012. In addition to the two continuing limited wars,
six conflicts escalated from a violent crisis to a limited war
and one new conflict on this level of intensity erupted. Of
the five limited wars observed in 2011, one de-escalated
to a violent crisis, two escalated to a war, and two remained
on the same level of intensity. While the conflict in Uganda
(LRA) de-escalated to a violent crisis, the conflicts in the DRC
between the FDLR and the government and the conflict between
militant groups were fought out as limited wars for the
second year running. The conflicts between ethnic groups
in Kenya, between Islamist groups and the Malian government,
between rebel groups active in CAR and the Chadian
government, between the SSC regions and Somaliland,
between Mayi-Mayi groups and the Congolese government
and between Christian and Muslim groups in Nigeria escalated
to limited wars [1 Kenya (inter-ethnic violence), Mali
(Islamist groups), Chad (rebel groups), Somalia (Somaliland
- SSC), Nigeria (Christians - Muslims)]. In April, a new conflict
on the level of a limited war erupted in northern Mali between
Islamist groups and the MNLA.
The number of non-violent conflicts decreased by five resulting
in 34 non-violent conflicts. In addition, 38 conflicts of
medium intensity were observed, slightly fewer than the 40 in
Frequency of Conflict Items in 2012 in
sub-Saharan Africa by Intensity Groups
40
37
2012 :
2011 :
18
low Intensity :
medium Intensity :
high Intensity :
20
23
19
11
5
10
8 9
1 1
9
2
6
3
0 0 0
2
1
5
7
6
1
3
9
11
8
4
1
0 0
9
7
11
2 2
6
dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war
territory
secession
autonomy
subnational
predominance
international
power
resources
other
decolonisation
national power
system / ideology
29