ConflictBarometer_2012

Measures of Conflict Resolution
Negotiations and Treaties
Throughout the year, numerous conflict actors negotiated and
signed treaties, affecting the course of the respective conflicts
in different ways. For instance, in Myanmar, the government and
the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K),
an Indian nationalist group, signed a ceasefire agreement in April
with the objective to grant autonomy to the NSCN-K in three Burmese
districts [1 India (NSCN et al. / Nagaland)]. After President
Thein Sein’s call for dialog in mid-2011, ceasefire agreements
were reached with several rebel groups, among them the Chin
National Front in January and the National United Party of Arakan
as well as the Arakan Liberation Party in April. While the November
2011 ceasefire agreement with the United Wa State Army
continued to hold ever since, ceasefire agreements with the Karen
National Union and the Karen National Liberation Army broke
down. The government held several rounds of talks with the
Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Kachin Independence
Organization (KIO), which remained without agreement [1 Myanmar
(KIA, KIO / Kachin State)]. In response to the war between KIA
and the government following the breakdown of a sixteen-year
old truce in June 2011, the United Nationalities Federal Council,
a merger of different rebel groups, stated it would review the
peace process including ceasefire agreements reached with the
government if military offensives in Kachin State would not stop.
In the Philippines, the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF) continued to negotiate, which eventually led
to the signing of a framework agreement on the Bangsamoro in
October [1 Philippines (MILF / Mindanao)]. Under the agreement
a new autonomous political entity, the Bangsamoro, would be
established and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao replaced.
There were no reports of clashes between MILF militants
and soldiers. However, clashes between MILF and a breakaway
group intensified [1 Philippines (BIFM, BIFF - MILF, government)].
In Colombia, President Juan Manuel Santos confirmed exploratory
peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia (FARC) [1 Colombia (FARC)]. The conflict parties held
preparatory talks in Norway in October, and after talks in Cuba
in November, FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire. However, the
government continued military offensives against FARC militants
in December. In El Salvador, the Mara Salvatrucha and the Barrio
18 announced to stop inter-gang violence following a truce
mainly brokered by the Catholic Church [1 El Salvador (Maras)].
Initially refusing to enter direct talks with the gangs, the government
later supported an informal peace deal, granting improved
conditions to detained gang leaders. Subsequently, the country’s
murder rate dropped significantly. In December, the government
and the gangs agreed on the creation of special zones free of
crime.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the government and
the rebel group M23 negotiated under the meditation of the
Ugandan government in Kampala in late November, following
M23’s seizing of the cities of Goma and Sake [1 DR Congo (CNDP
/ M23)]. Following the talks, M23 pulled out of the two cities in
December under the provision that further talks would be held.
Negotiations were stopped in late December but re-scheduled
for January 2013. In South Sudan, the government signed peace
agreements with several militant groups, planning their reintegration
into the army. For instance, the government reached a peace
treaty with the SSDM leader Peter Kuol Chol Awan on February
27, leading to a significant decrease in rebel activities. While
parts of the SSDM rejected this peace deal, choosing John Olony
as their new leader, approx. 1,800 SSDM fighters joined the demobilization
and reintegration process [1 South Sudan (various
militias)]. In Somalia, the National Constituent Assembly approved
a new constitution in late July [1 Somalia (Islamist groups)].
Accordingly, a new parliament, elected by elders, was installed
in Mogadishu in August. On September 10, the new parliament
elected Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as the first President of the Federal
Government of Somalia, ending the transitional period. In
the course of the conflicts in northern Mali, ECOWAS mediator
Blaise Compraoré repeatedly met with representatives of Ansar
al-Din and the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad
on to find a political solution to the crisis. However, negotiations
were ineffective, since the military intervention remained scheduled
for the beginning of 2013.
UN-backed negotiations between the Cypriot government
and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus under its leader
Dervis Eroglu resumed in January [1 Cyprus (TRNC / Northern Cyprus)].
However, Eroglu declared an end to all negotiations when
Cyprus assumed the EU presidency in July.
In February, the UN and the Arab League appointed former
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan as special envoy to mediate
in the conflict between the opposition and the Syrian government
of President Bashar al-Assad over national power and the
orientation of the political system [1 Syria (opposition groups)].
In early August, Annan resigned due to a lack of consensus in
the UN Security Council, the violation of a ceasefire, and ongoing
militarization. That month, former Algerian minister of foreign
affairs, Lakhdar Brahimi, replaced Annan and established a fourday
ceasefire in October, which, however, both sides violated.
After Iran had expressed its willingness to talks, new rounds of
negotiation between Iran and the five members of the UN Security
Council and Germany took place between April and July
[1 Iran - USA, EU (nuclear program)]. IAEA envoys also met with
government officials in Tehran, ultimately reaching no agreement.
Additionally, Iran denied IAEA access to a military facility,
which prompted the USA and the EU to impose new sanctions.
In Afghanistan in early 2012, Taliban ruled out negotiations with
the government of President Hamid Karzai, but agreed to meet
US officials in Doha, Qatar [1 Afghanistan (Taliban et al.)]. However,
these negotiations failed in March. In late December, several
leaders of militant groups, including Taliban and Hezb-e-Islami,
and members of the Higher Peace Council of the Afghan government
met in Paris to hold talks.
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