ConflictBarometer_2012

Global Conflict Panorama
The average intensity calculated for all domestic conflicts
observed (2.63) was approx. one intensity level higher than
that of interstate conflicts (1.57). Apart from the higher mean
intensity, intrastate conflicts also preserved a higher total
number of conflicts since the beginning of the long-term analysis
of conflicts in 1945. The same long-term observation period,
for which purpose both limited wars and wars were compiled
in one group of high intensity conflicts, clearly shows
that the intrastate dominance among the highly violent conflicts
sustained.
Regional Development
Similar to previous years, Asia and Oceania ranked highest with
128 conflicts, accounting for about one third of all conflicts observed.
These were followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with 90, the
Middle East and Maghreb with 69, Europe with 58, and the Americas
with 51. In terms of highly-violent conflicts, Sub-Saharan
Africa brought forth nineteen conflicts of the corresponding intensity,
while ten were counted in Asia and Oceania, and nine in
the Middle East and Maghreb. Accordingly, Sub-Saharan Africa
had the most wars (nine). Europe and the Americas experienced
no changes in the number of highly violent conflicts compared
to 2011, counting one and three limited wars respectively, as
well as one war in the Americas [1 Mexico (drug cartels)]. The
sum of highly violent conflicts decreased in the Middle East and
Maghreb (from thirteen to nine), marking the only decrease. Meanwhile,
the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa as well as Asia and
Oceania saw a rise in high intensity conflicts, with an increase
by six and two, respectively. In Asia and Oceania, 55 violent crises
were observed, followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with 37 and
the Middle East and Maghreb with 36. Concerning non-violent
conflicts, 63 have been listed in Asia and Oceania, pursued by
Europe with the second largest occurrence of non-violent conflicts
(45).
Asia and Oceania accounted for 34 percent of all intrastate
conflicts and 26 percent of all interstate conflicts observed. Regarding
intrastate conflicts, the regions ranked as follows: Sub-
Saharan Africa (24 percent), Middle East and Maghreb (18 percent),
Europe, and the Americas (both 12 percent). Considering
interstate conflicts, Europe came second with 23 percent, followed
by the Americas with eighteen percent and Sub-Saharan
Africa as well as the Middle East and Maghreb (both 17 percent).
Relating the number of conflicts to the number of countries in a
region, the Middle East and Maghreb has shown to be the most
conflict-ridden, with a general average value of 3.2, and specifically
for highly violent conflicts with 0.4 per state. Asia and Oceania
ranked second regarding the overall average and third for
highly violent conflicts (2.8 and 0.2 respectively). Sub-Saharan
Africa was situated third with an overall average per state of 1.9,
while sharing the first rank for highly violent conflicts with 0.4.
This calculation underlines that the Americas and Europe were
the most peaceful regions this year, in ascending order.
1
12
Distribution of all Conflicts in 2012
by Region and Intensity Type
45
19
37
34
4
25
22
low Intensity :
medium Intensity :
high Intensity :
Europe sub-Saharan Africa the Americas Asia and Oceania the Middle East and
Maghreb
10
63
55
9
36
24
Dynamics within individual conflicts
As in the preceding years, the intensity of about two thirds
of all conflicts monitored, i.e. 261 out of 396, remained unchanged
compared to 2011.
In total, 59 conflicts escalated, 42 of which by one, fifteen
by two, and two by three levels.
60 conflicts de-escalated, 42 of which by one level and
eighteen by two levels, while there were no de-escalations
by more than two levels. More than half of the 59 conflicts
which escalated, namely 33, turned from a non-violent level
to either violent crises, or limited wars, or wars. Of the disputes,
twelve escalated by two levels to violent crises. Among
them were FYROM (Albanian minority), DR Congo - Rwanda,
Tanzania (Uamsho), Mexico (opposition), Samoa (landowner
protests), Iraq (Kurdistan Regional Government), Saudi Arabia
(opposition movement), and Syria - Turkey. Seventeen nonviolent
crises escalated by one level to violent crises, Kenya
(MRC), Ethiopia (opposition), Venezuela (opposition), Indonesia
(Muslims - Christians / Sulawesi), Nepal (right-wing Hindu
groups), and Syria (Kurdish groups) being among them. Further
two escalated by three levels to wars [1 DR Congo (CNDP/
M23), India (ULFA et al. - Biharis, Bengalis)].
Two violent crises, both in Sub-Saharan Africa, increased in
intensity, escalating by two levels to wars. One was the secessionist
conflict between the Tuareg group National Movement
for the Liberation of Azawad and the Islamist group Ansar al-
Din, on the one hand, and the Mali government, on the other
[1 Mali (MNLA, Ansar al-Din / Azawad)]. The other conflict was
that over subnational predominance and resources between
farmers and pastoralists in Nigeria.
Three limited wars escalated by one level to wars, i.e. Sudan
(SPLM/A-North / South Kordofan, Blue Nile), Sudan - South
Sudan, and Myanmar (KIA, KIO / Kachin State).
Of the 60 conflicts which de-escalated, almost half, i.e. 29,
turned non-violent.
4