ConflictBarometer_2012

the middle east and maghreb
state of emergency after 31 years. On June 19, the government
dissolved the parliament and amended the constitutional
declaration of March 2011, triggering mass protests at Tahrir
Square. FJP candidate Muhammad Mursi won the presidential
election run-offs held June 16 to 18 with 51.73 percent of the
vote. On June 30, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
(SCAF) handed over government control to newly elected President
Muhammad Mursi.
On October 12 and 13, the government’s opponents and
supporters pelted each other with stones, bottles, and petrol
bombs in Cairo, leaving over 120 people wounded. On November
22, Mursi issued a decree granting himself extensive powers.
In response, thousands gathered in Cairo and clashed with
police forces. In the governorate capital Alexandria, protesters
stormed and torched FJP headquarters the following day. More
than a hundred people were injured in protests across the
country. Government supporters and opponents clashed on
November 25 in Cairo and Damanhour, Beheira Governorate,
with police forces intervening, leaving two dead and at least 60
people injured. In similar clashes throughout December, eight
protesters were killed and hundreds wounded. In response,
Mursi annulled the decree on December 8. After a constitutional
referendum had been scheduled for December 15, violence
erupted between rival factions from December 11 until
14 in Cairo, Alexandria, and Asyut, Asyut Governorate, which
left at least 25 people injured by petrol bombs, shooting, clubs,
and stones. In the course of clashes in Alexandria after the first
round of the referendum, 32 people were injured on December
21. The next day, the second round concluded with 63.8 percent
in favor of the government’s proposal.
sep
Iran
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
(PJAK / Kurdish areas)
3 Change: 6
PJAK vs. government
autonomy
Start:
1979
The conflict in the Kurdish areas of north-western Iran between
the Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK) and the government deescalated,
but remained violent. The PJAK was considered to be
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party [1 Turkey (PKK)]. On April
25, PJAK forces killed four members of the Islamic Revolution
Guard Corps and wounded another four near the town of Paveh,
Kermanshah Province. Reports stated that PJAK fighters also suffered
casualties in the clash. According to an article published on
a pro-Kurdish website on May 6, three prisoners were sentenced
to death by a court in the city of Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province,
for membership in a Kurdish political party.
et, lto
Iran – UAE
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
1 Change:
Iran vs. UAE
territory
Start:
1970
The conflict between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
over three islands in the Persian Gulf named Abu Musa, Greater
and Lesser Tunb continued on a non-violent level. During
the period of observation, several Iranian politicians visited
the Gulf Islands, an act which the UAE regarded as deliberate
provocation. On April 11, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
visited Abu Musa. It was the first time that an Iranian
head of state had ever visited the island. The next day, the UAE
recalled their ambassador from Iran's capital Tehran. In April
and May, Iranian members of parliament and the commander
of Iran´s Revolutionary Guard also visited the three islands.
The UAE cancelled a soccer match with Iran in April and three
month later called upon UAE soccer clubs to no longer sign
Iranian players. In September, at the UN General Assembly, the
UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs asked the international community
to urge for the settlement of the island dispute and
claimed full sovereignty over the islands. On October 9, Iranian
media reported that Iran considered ending diplomatic ties
with the UAE if they did not abstain from their claim of sovereignty
over the three islands. The same day, the state-owned
media denied that Iran took such steps into consideration. In
November, in order to underline its authority over the disputed
islands, Iran announced its intention to heighten its naval
presence in the Gulf.
jba
Iran – USA, EU
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
2 Change:
(nuclear program)
Iran vs. USA, EU
international power
Start:
1979
The non-violent crisis over Iran’s nuclear program between
Iran, on the one hand, and the USA and the EU, on the other,
continued. Whereas Iran underlined that the program served
civil purposes, the US, EU, and Israel suspected Iran of developing
atomic weapons. The IAEA repeatedly reported on Iran’s
increasing capacities and progress in uranium enrichment. The
US and EU imposed sanctions and the US and Israel threatened
with the possibility of military strikes [1 Iran - Israel]. Iran threatened
in turn to close the Strait of Hormuz, an important oil
shipping route. On January 23, three days after an IAEA report,
US imposed sanctions on several banks, while EU member states
banned all Iranian oil imports as of July 1. On February 16,
Iran expressed its willingness to resume negotiations with the
five members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1),
led by EU chief diplomat Catherine Ashton. However, Iran continued
with its uranium enrichment. Iran and the P5+1 met several
times between April and July. In June, Iran offered to halt
uranium enrichment in exchange for nuclear fuel with which
to run its reactors, but negotiations failed. Iran subsequently
announced plans to build a nuclear-powered submarine. On
July 1, the US imposed new sanctions. Two days later, the Iranian
parliament passed a draft bill closing the Strait of Hormuz.
On November 16, the IAEA reported again that Iran had advanced
its uranium enrichment pace and capacities.
In the course of the year, Iran conducted various military
exercises in the Persian Gulf. As a result, The US and EU deployed
warships, aircraft carriers, and mine-countermeasure
ships to the Persian Gulf. Several Cyber-attacks against Iranian
106