ConflictBarometer_2012

EUROPE
The number of conflicts observed in Europe remained the
same, with a total of 58. The conflict between Norway and
Russia (Barents Sea) ended in 2011, while a new violent
opposition conflict erupted in Romania. It grew out of mass
demonstrations against austerity measures, with protesters
being violently dispersed by the authorities.
As in the years before, Europe remained the region with the
highest share of non-violent conflicts, which accounted for 76
percent of the region’s conflicts. Only thirteen conflicts were
conducted violently, with one of them being a limited war over
secession and system/ideology between Islamist militants and
authorities in the Russian Northern Caucasus Federal District
(NCFD), embracing the republics of Chechnya, Ingushetia, Karbadino-Balkaria,
Dagestan, Karachay-Cherkessia [1 Russia (Islamist
militants / Northern Caucasus)]. The change in the number
of conflicts in Northern Caucasus compared to the Conflict Barometer
2011 was a result of a methodological revision, merging
six conflicts involving Islamist militants in NCFD. A large
share of the Islamist militants strove with the same means for
the establishment of an independent Sharia-ruled Caucasus
Emirate in NCFD. This necessitated a merger due to a high resemblance
of the conflict actors, items, and dynamics. In South
Caucasus, the opposition conflicts in Azerbaijan and Georgia
remained violent, whereas the conflict between the Armenian
opposition and the government further de-escalated.
Autonomy and secession were Europe's most frequent
conflict items, accounting for fourteen conflicts each. All conflicts
over autonomy remained on the lowest level of intensity,
except for one that escalated to a violent crisis [1 FYROM (Albanian
minority)]. In contrast, six conflicts concerning secession
were carried out violently, two of them in Western European
democracies [1 France (FLNC / Corsica), United Kingdom
(Nationalists / Northern Ireland)]. The second most common
conflict item was international power, which was prevalent in
twelve non-violent interstate conflicts, followed by territory
and system/ideology, each amounting to ten. The two crises
concerning subnational predominance both decreased to the
lowest level of intensity [1 Bosnia and Herzegovina (Wahhabi
militants), Russia (Ingush minority / North Ossetia-Alania)].
Europe’s sole violent interstate conflict was also the only violent
one over territory [1 Armenia - Azerbaijan].
Southeast Europe, including the Balkans, formerly Europe’s
most violent area, featured 43 percent of the region’s conflicts.
However, only four of them were judged as violent crises
[1 Romania (opposition movement), Greece (social protests),
FYROM (Albanian minority), Serbia (Kosovo)].
Although non-violent, both conflicts concerning Cyprus
witnessed lasting tensions due to its EU presidency and the
halt of UN-backed negotiations [1 Cyprus - Turkey, Cyprus
(TRNC / Northern Cyprus)].
In Middle and Eastern Europe, the system and power conflict
in Belarus de-escalated to a non-violent crisis [1 Belarus
(opposition)]. In the context of the Russian presidential elections,
which resulted in the reinstatement of Vladimir Putin as
president, the opposition conflict continued on a violent level
[1 Russia (opposition groups)].
In West and South Europe, two conflicts over secession remained
violent [1 France (FLNC / Corsica), United Kingdom (Nationalists
/ Northern Ireland)]. Europe’s largest demonstration
was staged in the context of the Catalonian secession conflict
with up to 1.5 million protesters gathering in the Catalan capital
of Barcelona [1 Spain (Catalan nationalists / Catalonia)].
The European Union obtained the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012
for its work over six decades of promoting peace, reconciliation,
democracy, and human rights. However, four out of the thirteen
violent conflicts in Europe were fought within EU member states.
Among them were the conflicts concerning deteriorating
socio-economic conditions and austerity measures in Greece
and Romania in the context of the Euro debt crisis [1 Greece
(social protests), Romania (opposition movement)].
With 39 conflicts within states, twice as many intrastate
conflicts as interstate conflicts were observed, with the latter
counting twenty conflicts. However Europe accounted for the
highest percent-share of interstate conflicts. In contrast to
Sub-Saharan Africa (sixteen percent), in Europe 33 percent of
all observed conflicts were between states.
Conflict Intensities in Europe in
2012 compared to 2011
Frequency of Conflict Items in 2012 in Europe by
Intensity Groups
34
34
2012 :
2011 :
13
low Intensity :
medium Intensity :
high Intensity :
12
9
8
13 12
1
10
11
5
5
4 4
4
3
2
1
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 2
1
0 0
1
0
1
0
dispute non-violent crisis violent crisis limited war war
territory
international
power
subnational
predominance
resources
other
system / ideology
autonomy
decolonisation
secession
national power
15