ConflictBarometer_2012

EUROPE
– Azerbaijan]. In February, Azerbaijani police detained 22 persons
suspected of planning attacks on the embassies of the
USA and Israel in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku and of having links
to Iran’s elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Police
confiscated AK-47 rifles, guns, and explosives. A court
sentenced the suspects to jail terms ranging from ten to fifteen
years on October 9. During a two-day meeting with
Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinejad in order to soothe
tensions, Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev stated
on March 12 that Azerbaijani territory was not to be used for
a military attack on Iran. However, Iran withdrew its ambassador
on May 21, following a visit of Israeli Foreign Minister
Avigdor Lieberman to Baku on April 23 and anti-Iran demonstrations
on May 11 [1 Iran - Israel]. He was reassigned one
month later. Likewise, Azerbaijan summoned its ambassador
for consultations on May 30. Iranian authorities arrested two
alleged Azerbaijani spies in May, in the city of Tabriz, but released
them on September 4. Also in May, Azerbaijani authorcities
arrested four Azerbaijani citizens suspected of
plotting attacks on the eve of the Eurovision Song Contest in
Baku and of having ties to members of the IRGC. They were
sentenced to prison terms varying between twelve and fourteen
years.
ld
Belarus
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
(opposition groups)
2 Change: 6
Start:
opposition groups vs. government
system/ideology, national power
1994
The system and national power conflict between opposition
groups and the government de-escalated to a non-violent
level. The government continued to repress the opposition
systematically. Throughout the year, authorities arrested
about 70 activists and journalists on charges of hooliganism
and public indecency, evicted them from their homes, or expelled
them from university. Authorities impeded or prohibited
protest rallies and public gatherings. However, on March
25, which is Belarus’ Freedom Day, about 5,000 protesters in
Minsk staged the first sanctioned rally since the crackdown
on 12/19/10.
Following cyber attacks on oppositional websites at the
end of 2011, a law was passed on January 6, restricting access
to foreign and anti-government websites. Another law, passed
on June 6, allowed the Committee for State Security (KGB) to
break into people’s houses without a warrant. Furthermore,
the government authorized KGB to ban Belarusians from traveling
abroad on its own discretion on July 6.
On January 19, the Belarusian Christian Democracy (BCD)
was again denied registration as a political party. On February
2, an alliance of four opposition parties threatened to withdraw
their candidates from parliamentary elections unless
all political prisoners were liberated. Belarusian authorities
announced on June 25 to allow OSCE observers to monitor
parliamentary elections. Several opposition groups boycotted
parliamentary elections held on September 23. The voting
process was denounced as fraudulent by the EU, OSCE, and
the Belarusian opposition.
jdr
Belgium
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
(N-VA / Flanders)
1 Change:
N-VA vs. government
autonomy
Start:
2007
The autonomy conflict between the nationalist party New Flemish
Alliance (N-VA) and the government continued. On March
11, N-VA accused Francophone Socialists’ (PS) Prime Minister
Elio Di Rupo of not taking Flemish demands into account
in the 2012 budget. On September 10, N-VA leader Bart De
Wever expressed optimism about his party’s prospects regarding
the 2014 federal elections and called on the Francophones
to prepare for confederalism. In mid-October, local elections
were held all over the country. N-VA won the municipal
elections in Flanders’ important city of Antwerp, gaining 37.7
percent of the votes. Following the victory, De Wever urged Di
Rupo to reshape the federal system. On October 19, Di Rupo
demanded the European leaders to tackle the economic crisis
in order to fight against the rise of separatist movements. On
October 27, unknown persons placed a chopped pig’s head in
front of De Wever’s house in Antwerp. In his traditional Christmas
address, King Albert II warned of populism, drawing an
analogy to the rise of fascism in the 1930s. In reaction, De
Wever accused the King of having politicized his role and demanded
his resignation.
fmb
Bosnia and Herzegovina (Bosnian
Serbs / Republic of Srpska)
Intensity:
Conflict parties:
Conflict items:
1 Change:
Start:
1995
Republic of Srpska vs. central government,
Bosniak-Croat Federation
secession
The secession conflict between the Republic of Srpska (RS)
and the central government continued. In the forefront of celebrations
marking the 20th anniversary of the founding of
RS, a large amount of weapons and ammunition was found
at the designated venue in Banja Luka, RS, on January 8. RS
boycotted Bosnia and Herzegovina’s (BiH) 20th anniversary of
independence on March 1. RS President Milorad Dodik called
the date an event only for Bosnians. On October 4, Dodik announced
an initiative for the abolition of the federal armed
forces. During her visit to Sarajevo on October 30, US Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton criticized Bosnian Serb leaders for
challenging the territorial integrity of BiH and stressed the
importance of the 1995 Dayton peace agreement. Before the
UN Security Council on November 13, High Representative for
Bosnia and Herzegovina Valentin Inzko warned about secessionist
rhetoric used by RS leaders, in particular by Dodik. The
Council extended the mandate of the EUFOR Althea operation
until November 2013.
mmu
19