ICT in Agriculture and Disaster Management - Bangladesh ...

under base year situation (Table 7). In developing the National Program of Action for
Adaptation to Climate Change (NAPA) of Bangladesh, the values for temperature and
precipitation change, and sea level rise for the year 2030, 2050 and 2100 were agreed
upon by all six Sectoral Working Groups (Table 8). These climate change scenarios
were used as the guiding principle for formulating the NAPA.
Table 7. The fluctuations of values of the parameters considered with respect to their values under
base year situation
Parameters
2030 2075
Winter Monsoon Winter Monsoon
Temperature (° C) 2.00 0.65 3.00 1.50
Evaporation (%) 10.00 2.00 16.00 5.00
Precipitation (%) -3.00 11.00 -37.00 28.00
Sea Level Rise (cm) 30.00 70.00
Source: Ahmed and Alam (1999).
Table 8. Climate Change Scenarios for Bangladesh NAPA
Year
Temperature change
(ºC) Mean
Precipitation change
(%) Mean
Sea Level Rise
(cm)
Annual Dec-Jan-Feb Jun-Jul-Aug Annual Dec-Jan-
Feb
Jun-Jul-
Aug
NAPA
2030 1.0 1.1 0.8 5 -2 6 14
2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 -5 8 32
2100 2.4 2.7 1.9 10 -10 12 88
Agricultural Vulnerability
Water and agriculture are likely to be most susceptible sectors to climate changeinduced
impacts in Asia. Agricultural productivity in this region is likely to suffer
severe losses because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil
degradation. Tropical Asian countries are likely to have increased exposure to extreme
events, including forest die back and increased fire risk, typhoons and tropical storms,
floods and landslides, and severe vector-borne diseases. The stresses of climate change
are likely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems in Asia. Glacial
melt is also expected to increase under changed climate conditions. Sea-level rise
would cause large-scale inundation along the vast Asian coastline and recession of flat
sandy beaches. The ecological stability of mangroves and coral reefs around Asia
would be put at risk (Cruz, et al., 2007)
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the projected impacts of climate change, as these
are likely to increase the already high risk of disasters, and exacerbate existing
vulnerabilities. Climate change will cause changes such as higher temperatures,
changing rainfall patterns and sea level rise as well as more abrupt effects, such as an
increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as floods, storm surges
and cyclones. An increase of one degree centigrade in sea surface temperature (SST)
could increase tropical cyclone intensity by as much as 10%, while temperature
alterations associated with climate change are already affecting the rate of snowmelt in
the Himalayas, which is expected to lead to increased flooding. It is predicted that by
the year 2030, an additional 14% of the country will become extremely vulnerable to
floods, and currently vulnerable areas will experience higher levels of flooding. Indeed,
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